Why Reform UK could take crucial general election votes off Rishi Sunak

According to the leading election specialist in the UK, the Reform UK political party may obtain important votes from the Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, in the upcoming general election.

In 2018, the Brexit Party was founded, which later rebranded as Reform UK after Nigel Farage resigned as its leader in 2021. He had led the party during the 2019 election run.

One key aspect of that election was that the party opted not to put forth any nominees in the 317 constituencies that had been secured by the Conservative Party in the preceding election back in 2017. Farage clarified the rationale behind this, explaining that the objective was to avoid dividing the voters who favored Brexit, and to encourage Boris Johnson to uphold his commitments on realizing the UK's departure from the EU.

This time around, the political group – headed by entrepreneur Richard Tice – decided not to form any election agreement with the Conservative Party.

Professor Sir John Curtice has stated that Reform UK poses a notable threat to Sunak in terms of attracting votes away from the Conservative Party during the July 4th election.

According to the polling specialist, previous polls have indicated that the largest decline in support for 2019 Tory voters was towards Reform. It was found that one out of every five 2019 Conservative voters expressed their intention to vote for Reform, while only one in six opted for Labour.

During an interview with BBC Radio 4, the speaker stated that the biggest obstacle for the Conservatives will be the Reform party in terms of obtaining votes, not seats. According to current polls, approximately 20% of Conservative voters from the 2019 election plan to vote for Reform, while only 16% are switching to the Labour party.

Naturally, securing seats for Reform is no easy feat since the votes will likely be distributed fairly evenly.

For a while, people have been wondering if Farage would be a candidate or lead his party's campaign, especially after Sunak's statement. However, on Thursday morning, the previous leader of the Brexit Party revealed he would not run.

Poll Results: What Do They Indicate?

In the most recent voting intention survey conducted by YouGov/Times, before Sunak declared the general election, the Conservative Party saw an increase of one percentage point to reach 21% compared to the previous poll on 15-16 May. Meanwhile, the Labour Party decreased by one percentage point to reach 46%.

Reform UK now has 12% of the vote, which increased by one percentage point. The Liberal Democrats remained steady at 9%. The Green party, on the other hand, experienced a 1% drop, and is now at 7%.

For the majority of the past 18 months, the Labour party has maintained an equivalent advantage over the Conservatives. The public sentiment towards the major political parties has not shown significant fluctuations. However, Reform party has observed a surge in public support over the past few months, with their average rating increasing from approximately 6% during the summer of 2023 to twice that amount.

Nigel Farage has declared that he won't participate as a contender for the Reform party in the upcoming parliamentary election. (Getty)

Can Nigel Farage Boost Reform's Success?

Last Thursday, Farage declared that he will not run for the upcoming general election. Nevertheless, he stated that he will still aid the party during the campaign.

On Thursday, the honorary president of the party made a statement on X. He thought carefully about whether or not he should run in the general election.

Being the esteemed president of Reform UK, I wholeheartedly back Richard Tice's leadership and strongly encourage voters to have confidence in both him and Lee Anderson.

I plan to contribute to the campaign, but I don't think it's appropriate for me to extend my involvement beyond that at this point.

Although the general election is undeniably significant, the competition occurring in the United States on November 5th holds immense importance on a global scale. Having a strong alliance with America is crucial for maintaining our peace and security. I plan on assisting the grassroots movement in the US, utilizing any means possible.

Choosing between the two major political parties, Labour and the Conservatives, lacks excitement. The Reform party is the only one with a bold and innovative plan that can put an end to the country's decline.

According to Curtice, prior surveys indicated that Farage's comeback to Reform and his involvement in frontline politics could affect the party's backing. However, he stated that this enhancement may not be essential for the party's success, considering its recent surge in public support.

In the autumn of 2023, he mentioned statistics from YouGov indicating that if Farage were to take charge of Reform, it might result in the party's vote increasing twofold from 6%.

"Nevertheless, surveys have already indicated that Reform has a support rate of 11/12%," he included. "Therefore, it's uncertain what further influence Nigel Farage could have at the moment."

Regardless, it's important to consider that Nigel Farage's Brexit party didn't contest Conservative-held constituencies during the 2019 election, even if he decides not to run this time and Reform gets limited support.

Richard Tice has expressed his strong resolve to stand against them this time. It is possible that even if the Reform Party secures only a 5% vote share, it can still create an impact by drawing 5, 6, or 7% of votes from the Conservative Party candidates in the seats they are contesting to safeguard.

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