Polish election: Right-wing ruling party to lose majority - exit poll
The picture is credited to Piotr Nowak who is associated with EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock.
On Sunday night in Warsaw, there was a celebratory atmosphere as Donald Tusk was welcomed with applause, cheers and excitement usually seen at a victory rally.
Sarah Rainsford and Adam Easton wrote the article from Warsaw and Paul Kirby contributed from London.
An exit poll suggests that the Law and Justice party, which is known for its right-wing populist views, is heading towards winning the highest number of seats in the upcoming general election in Poland. However, it seems that the party is not likely to stay in power and continue serving for a third term.
According to a recent Ipsos survey, the right-wing party PiS is expected to obtain 36.8% of the votes, while the centrist opposition is projected to acquire 31.6%. PiS is an acronym used to refer to this political party.
If this statement is accurate, it increases the possibility of Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition establishing a coalition.
He wants to put an end to the eight-year domination of the PiS party, which is led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
The leader of PiS acknowledged that he's uncertain of whether the party's achievements will result in a subsequent period of ruling.
Mr. Tusk, who is 66 years old, announced to an enthusiastic crowd in the town of Warsaw that Poland had won and democracy had triumphed. The rally felt like a celebration of victory. He declared that this was the end of difficult times and the end of the PiS government.
Loud cheers erupted along with roars of excitement when the initial election results were broadcasted and Mr Tusk then emerged. The crowd enthusiastically chanted his name.
The supporters were surprised by the exit poll, and the officials of the election reported afterwards that the possibility of the turnout rate was 72.9%, which was the greatest since the communism was removed in 1989.
The polling stations were closed at 9:00 PM, considering the local time. Nevertheless, people reported that there were still lines of voters in Warsaw and Krakow even late into the night, while in Wroclaw, there were still people who were voting into the early hours of the morning. According to Ipsos, a research company, more people aged between 18 and 29 years old voted compared to those over the age of 60.
According to reports, the PiS political party was projected to take 200 seats out of the total 460 seats in the parliament. However, this falls short of the 231 seats required to secure a majority. On the other hand, the far-right Confederation party, whose leader acknowledged that they had not performed well as predicted, is unlikely to be of much assistance, with a projected 12 seats.
Mr Kaczynski has accused his opponent of being controlled by both Berlin and Brussels while promising to uphold his party's unwavering stance against migration.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski addressed his followers, urging them to remain optimistic despite the exit poll results that revealed a significant decrease of 35 parliamentary seats.
Donald Tusk, leader of the Civic Coalition, has stated that the upcoming vote is crucial for Poland's future in the European Union and deemed it the most significant one since the end of communism.
He promised to enhance the connection between the European Union and his country and release €36bn (£30bn) of Covid pandemic recovery funds from the EU. The frozen funds resulted from a conflict over PiS judicial reforms, which triggered the appointment of judges who are supportive of the ruling party in top-ranked courts.
If the preliminary survey conducted on 90,000 voters proves to be correct, then Mr. Tusk's political party has a higher probability of establishing a vast alliance alongside Third Way, a center-right party, and Lewica, a left-wing party.
Before the polls closed, hardly any supporters of the PiS party were seen with smiles on their faces.
Mr. Kaczynski announced that it is necessary to have hope. Whether they are in control or not, they will carry out this project in different forms and prevent the betrayal of Poland.
Even though the exit poll indicated that they had lost 35 seats compared to the last election in 2019, supporters of PiS remained resolute and chanted "Jaroslaw" while waving the flag of Poland.
A representative of the political party expressed to BBC his remaining optimism to create a governing body considering that the exit poll is merely a forecast.
On Sunday, long lines of people gathered outside voting centers throughout Poland and other places.
Many people were crowded into the marbled entrance of the Stalinist Palace of Culture in Warsaw. The long line of voters extended all the way out onto the square outside.
Agnes, a supporter of the PiS party, told the BBC that the campaign was highly impactful and conveyed strong emotions, which was why so many people turned up.
Poland's intense election campaign had a positive outcome, boosting the number of people who went to vote. Sylwester Marciniak, the head of the commission, expressed his feeling of victory over the turnout record at the press conference.
A lot of citizens in the heart of Warsaw arrived for the voting process accompanied by their kids and pets. Officials who were there to manage the election and security guards provided assistance to seniors as they scaled the stairs.
The individuals who carried out their voting expressed feeling anxious about the outcome of the election. They believed that the results would have a significant impact on the upcoming plan and direction of Poland.
Regardless of the election's outcome, Poland's unwavering support for Ukraine is expected to stay strong, even though it has been almost two years since Russia's full-scale invasion began. However, leaders of Poland's PiS political party have shown some uncertainty in their stance towards Ukraine lately, possibly to win back voters who are leaning towards the Ukraine-sceptic Confederation party.
People lined up outside voting centers all over the country.
Another voter named Ela expressed the need for the government to ensure that we are headed in the right direction and are able to withstand any threats from Russia given the war on our border.
Over 30,000 voting places were available for Poles to cast their vote, and even abroad, there were lengthy lines due to the 600,000 expat voters who registered to participate.
Magdalena Bozek stated that the recent elections are the most significant ones she has participated in so far in her life. She talked while waiting in line to cast her vote in the United Kingdom's capital city. Bozek mentioned that the past eight years have been quite challenging for her and other pro-Europeans.
The Civic Coalition has promised to relax the regulations on abortion, following a strict prohibition imposed last year.
The political movement known as Third Way, which leans towards the right side of the political spectrum and offers a middle ground between the two main political parties, seems to have come out victorious on election night, garnering an estimated 13% of the votes. They have pledged to make the tax system less complex and provide an alternative to the dominant parties.
According to Piotr Buras from the European Council on Foreign Relations, if the opposition wins, it would allow for a significant change in domestic and European policy. Removing PiS officials from state institutions and public TV would be the first priority.
The country of Poland is split into 41 different areas, each with its own local government. The national parliament is made up of representatives that are elected based on a party list. If you are a citizen of another country living in Poland, your vote for the national parliament will be added to the total number of votes cast in the district surrounding the city of Warsaw.
Normally, when the largest political party wins an election in Poland, President Andrzej Duda, who is supportive of the conservative government, would allow them to form a government. This has been the customary practice and his assistant suggested that this is what will happen next.
However, in the case where PiS is unable to secure a successful vote of confidence, parliament would designate a fresh prime minister who would then form a new government, and in turn, would need to obtain a positive vote of confidence in the Sejm.
PiS might be the caretaker government of Poland until December.
Out of all the political groups running for parliament, five are expected to surpass the minimum requirement of 5% and secure seats in the 460-member Sejm.
The Senate was also up for voting in Poland, along with four suggested referendums, all meant to motivate PiS supporters to participate in the election.
Someone raised the question of whether the age of retirement should go up, while another person inquired about whether Poland should receive a bigger number of migrants from other countries within the EU.
