Poland election earthquake: What happens next?
The image is taken from Getty Images.
A member of the Civic Coalition, which is among the opposition groups that have enough votes to control a majority, smiles in response to the results from the exit poll.
According to a second survey conducted in Poland, the Law and Justice party, which is a right-wing nationalist political party, has supposedly won the maximum number of votes in Sunday's election. However, the poll predicts that the party will not achieve a majority in the parliament.
If the second exit poll prediction, which has a 2% margin of error, is confirmed by the official result on Tuesday, then the responsibility of appointing a new prime minister to form a government will fall on President Andrezj Duda. President Duda was formerly a member of the Law and Justice party.
Who Has Priority To Establish A Government?
It is generally expected, and President Duda has expressed his intention to follow this tradition, for the president to select the leader of the biggest political party, in this instance Law and Justice, to be given the opportunity to create a government and gain approval through a vote of confidence in parliament.
Nonetheless, it seems that the Law and Justice party does not have a distinct plan for establishing a government with enough support, whereas a varied opposition alliance comprised of the Civic Coalition, the Third Way, and the Left seems capable of setting up a government with ample backing.
Based on the second forecast, Law and Justice would gain 198 seats which falls short of the 231 seats that are required to secure a majority. Both the options and possibilities that Law and Justice have for coalition alliance are limited. Even if they collaborate with the far-right Confederation party, the combined number of seats would only reach 212.
The opposing side has a total of 248 seats available for them.
In case President Duda allows Law and Justice to form the government and they do not succeed, then the parliament will have the opportunity to form a government. If the outcome of the second attempt aligns with the exit polls, then the opposition coalition would have the majority in the government.
It is possible for President Duda to refuse to request Law and Justice to attempt to establish a government, taking into account the numbers in parliament.
What Happens Without An Agreement?
If the second try in Parliament does not work, then the President chooses a different person for the Prime Minister role. In case this also fails, he has the option to schedule new elections.
If all of the aforementioned phases happen, it is possible that Poland may not have a governing administration until November or December, or alternatively, they may be on the path towards holding new elections.
"What Are The Opposing Parties Disagreeing About?"
It will be a tough road ahead for the opposition coalition if they are given the responsibility and are approved through a voting process to lead.
To begin, the political views expressed within this group are varied, encompassing those of moderate conservatives who align with the Third Way philosophy and other hard-left MPs who associate themselves with the Left ideology.
Let's take Civic Coalition and the Left as an example. Both parties advocate for the relaxation of restrictions regarding abortion. They have been pushing for the allowance of women to make a decision to terminate their pregnancies within a 12-week time frame.
The Third Way has a more cautious stance on abortion. They aim to reverse the court's decision made in 2020 which prohibited abortion in cases involving severe fetal defects. This made all pregnancy terminations illegal. However, the Third Way plans on letting the public vote on whether additional steps should be taken concerning this issue.
Those who identify with the Left are eager to decrease the Catholic Church's power over governmental establishments, a view that may not align with the beliefs of Third Way politicians.
"Challenges For Coalitions: Overcoming Obstacles"
The group opposing the current government has promised to bring back the autonomy of the judiciary and the media accessible to the public.
The Law and Justice reforms have been criticized by the European Commission and many other international organizations because they have damaged the independence of judges and the diversity of media outlets. The state media has also undergone a transformation, becoming effectively controlled by the Law and Justice party.
Once again, there may be resistance towards this shift from two significant parties - President Duda and Poland's primary judicial body, the Constitutional Tribunal. At present, the Tribunal is overseen by judges who are in favor of the Law and Justice party.
Both possess the authority to reject a proposed law made by the opposing political party that is in power.
The alliance against the government does not have the necessary number of votes in parliament to cancel the president’s rejection. This means that the head of state could create challenges for them.
