Poland’s democratic health appears better than many feared

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Donald Tusk, opposition leader, said that the results of Poland's parliamentary elections were the "end of bad times," according to exit polls. The governing Law and Justice (PiS) party created a campaign that polarised voters and was designed to lower turnout. However, despite these efforts, Poles came out in large numbers to vote. According to an Ipsos exit poll, opposition parties led by Tusk's centre-right Civic Platform won, which opens a path for Poland to regain its democracy.

Sunday's vote was a very important one for Poland. It was the most significant vote since the first democratic elections in 1989, which happened after the communist party was overthrown. What was at stake was Poland's ability to remain a democratic country that follows the rule of law, rather than just following the desires of one political party. If the opposition won the election and helped to make the courts less politically involved, then Poland could receive billions of euros from the European Union. This could also make Poland's relationships with its neighboring countries, such as Germany and Ukraine, much better. By being more supportive of the EU, Poland could help the union grow and become stronger.

According to a poll by Ipsos, the nationalist and ultraconservative PiS, which is led by Jarosław Kaczyński, won the recent election with an estimated 37 percent of the votes. As of Monday morning, only 29 percent of the votes had been counted, but this still gave PiS a greater lead. As the leading party, PiS will have the first opportunity to form a government. However, since the far-right Confederation only estimates to have received 6 percent of the total votes, PiS does not have a partner to assist them in reaching a majority.

The outcome is a validation for Tusk since he was successful in bringing order to his party and used the campaign to focus on his main opponent, Kaczyński. With inflation and the cost of living becoming major concerns for the voters, Civic Platform won 32% of the votes, surpassing the predictions from the opinion polls. Additionally, the opposition parties Third Way and The Left performed well to secure 13% and 9% of the votes each. This combined effort of the three opposition groups could potentially lead to the end of Poland’s nationalist government since they would have a total of 248 seats in the lower house, which has 460 seats. Tusk, a former prime minister, had returned to Polish politics in 2021 after serving five years as the European Council president in Brussels, despite being disliked by a significant portion of the Polish electorate.

Poland has shown to be a strong democracy unlike Hungary, where their nationalist leader, Viktor Orbán, appears to be unremovable from power. During the recent election, voter turnout in Poland was nearly 73%, which is considerably high and a positive indication that many Poles are aware of the significance of this election. This is the largest turnout the country has seen in 34 years.

The election that took place in 2019 was declared free but not just. The election that happened on Sunday was hardly free and certainly wasn't fair. In order to solidify their power in the rural areas, the PiS government added more polling stations. However, they did not shift the boundaries so that more seats would go to the liberal cities of the country, which have been growing in population. Alongside the votes for the Sejm and the Senate, four referendums were also held by the PiS administration. These issues were intended to excite their conservative supporters and there was no limit to the amount of money which they could spend on their campaigns.

The PiS party used all the political power of a very partisan government to help their campaign. Not just the state television, but a lot of local media which was taken over by the state-controlled oil company, Orlen, last year. Right before voting day, Orlen lowered petrol prices even though the cost of crude oil was going up. In September, the central bank reduced interest rates despite a high rate of inflation. Even though the PiS party had successfully managed the economy for 8 years, the voters did not believe that they could keep doing it well.

If the exit polls are correct and PiS is unable to gather a majority, a smooth transfer of power will be a significant test of Poland's democracy. Tusk may not be given the opportunity to establish a government until January. Kaczyński's warning about potential confrontations and unrest is concerning. Regardless of whether the opposition wins control, reforms to promote democracy and independent judiciary could be obstructed by President Andrzej Duda and PiS's powerful establishment. At present, supporters of European integration in Poland have a reason to celebrate.