Poland exit polls: Donald Tusk claims victory based on coalition hopes

Donald Tusk, who in the past served as the prime minister of Poland and also as the president of the European Council, declared himself as the winner of the parliamentary election in Poland on Sunday when the exit poll results came out soon after the polling booths closed.

The survey indicated that the Law and Justice (PiS) party had emerged victorious, but it seemed to give the opposition coalition, led by Tusk, a chance to form the government.

For a period of eight years, the PiS party has been in control of Poland's government. In this time, they have transformed the country's public television into a tool for spreading government propaganda. They have put constraints on the rights of women to access abortion services, and have also stigmatized members of the LGBTQ+ community, migrants, and refugees. These actions have caused Poland to come into direct conflict with the European Union over issues related to upholding the rule of law. As a result, large amounts of money that had been earmarked for Poland by the EU have been withheld indefinitely.

Tusk took to the podium at the election headquarters of the Civic Coalition, situated in the Ethnographic Museum of Warsaw, to officially announce his triumph.

Tusk announced to the enthusiastic applause of his followers that the era of misfortune and the governance of the PiS has come to an end, and we have finally triumphed.

"He remarked that we have succeeded in attaining democracy, we have achieved freedom, and we have recaptured our beloved nation, Poland. This momentous occasion will go down in history as a day of joy, as it signifies the rebirth of our country," he stated.

There is a new exit poll that was published on Monday, which shows that the PiS party has a support of 36.6%, while the Civic Coalition led by Tusk has 31%. Nevertheless, two groups that could potentially join forces with Tusk to form a coalition also gained a considerable amount of support. The Third Way, which is a center-right party, has 13.5%, and the Lewica party, which is left-wing, has 8.6%.

If this outcome is proven to be accurate, it indicates that the three political parties working together would have more members in Poland's 460-seat parliament than any other group. This could be seen as a positive sign for the country's progressive movement. In addition, the early results indicate that the far-right coalition Confederation, which was initially expected to receive around 9% of the vote, only received 6.4%.

After the outcome, the Polish monetary unit, known as zloty, gained strength and rose about 1.3% in value as of 05:15 AM according to Greenwich Mean Time.

It was predicted that more information about the results would be available in the morning, but it is possible that the definitive outcome may not be known until Monday or Tuesday. A survey, conducted shortly after the election in Slovakia, suggested that a progressive alliance had won; however, the true results were quite different.

Stanley Bill, a professor of Polish studies at Cambridge University, has suggested that the president of the country can allow PiS to take the first attempt at forming the government, which would stall the opposition. He posted this observation on X (previously known as Twitter). He emphasized the need to await official results (due by Tuesday), as even minor discrepancies could potentially affect the outcome.

In contrast, there was a cheerful atmosphere at the Civic Coalition headquarters. Borys Budka, leader of the parliamentary section of the Civic Coalition, confidently stated that the upcoming 40-60 hours would demonstrate the effective construction of the coalition. He was certain that the coalition consisting of themselves, the Third Way and the left would be the ones to form the government.

According to Budka, if the opposition wins, Poland will once again have pleasant relations with the EU and won't have to worry about the possibility of leaving the union, which is also referred to as "Polexit".

Barbara Nowacka, a member of the Civic Coalition party in Poland who has been strongly opposed to the ruling Law and Justice party's efforts to limit women's access to abortion, stated that the opposition had emerged as victors. She also emphasized that this was a significant moment for women in Poland.

She stated that young females wouldn't feel scared of getting pregnant, nor would they hesitate to seek medical assistance.

Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the PiS party, who is 74 years old, claimed that their party had a significant victory. However, he acknowledged that they were uncertain if they would be in the position to govern.

He informed his followers that difficult and stressful times lie ahead after the initial election results were revealed. If PiS is truly the largest party, they have the privilege of attempting to form a coalition before anyone else.

He stated that regardless of our political standing, we will proceed with our plan and Poland will not face acts of disloyalty.

During a campaign that has caused serious division in Poland, both sides have argued that the upcoming vote will have significant consequences for the country's future. Tusk claimed that the election represents a crucial opportunity to prevent PiS from causing irreparable harm to democracy in Poland.

The PiS party used populist strategies during their campaign, stating that only they have the ability to safeguard Poland against an influx of refugees. In addition, their campaign has centered on discrediting the adversary, Tusk, by continuously asserting that he is working for foreign interests.

It seems that this election experienced a great number of voters, with a predicted turnout of more than 72%. This is anticipated to be the biggest voter turnout since the collapse of communism. Even as time passed and the polls came to a close, some people still waited in lines outside of polling stations. Officials reassured those in line that as long as they arrived before the voting time officially ended, they would still be allowed to vote.

On the television, it was noticeable that a vast group of people, who were predominantly youthful, were waiting in an extended queue to participate in voting at one polling station located in the western district of Wrocław. The residents living nearby were seen bringing things like hot tea, blankets and some food items to the people waiting in the line.

A few people standing in the queue mentioned that they had to wait for six long hours. The voting area ended its operations just before 3 o'clock in the morning (or 01:00 GMT), which was six hours delayed from the scheduled closing time.

At a polling place located in the district of Wola, opposition supporters displayed positive feelings regarding the prospect of the opposition prevailing.

Pawel, age 46, expressed hope when he noticed many young individuals voting, even more than in the last four or eight years. He chose to vote for Tusk’s Civic Coalition. Simultaneously, Maciej, age 78, stated that the notion that elderly individuals support PiS was baseless. He highlighted that there were many seniors who had the ability to think, tapping on his forehead to indicate intelligence.

In the Gocław area of the town, Grażyna, a 77-year-old, expressed her support for PiS, claiming that they are the most just political party. She spent 20 minutes queuing and hopes that their positive influence on Poland will carry on.

Many Polish citizens living outside of Poland were lining up for a long time at Polish consulates abroad to register their votes. This number reached over 600,000. Pictures and videos of these long queues were being shared on social media. For instance, a person had to wait for three hours in Palermo, but could not reach the front of the queue to vote.

During the election, the government organized a public vote on certain issues. One of them was about immigration and there were two questions related to it. The first one was if people support the idea of allowing many Middle Eastern and African immigrants who entered the country illegally.

The referendum was viewed as an effort to increase the number of PiS supporters who participate and to circumvent government restrictions on electoral financing. The opposition suggested to their supporters that they only ask for an election ballot and refuse to participate in the referendum, saying that a 50% turnout is required for it to be considered valid.

Due to the high stakes involved in the election, there have been worries about potential cheating. Many Polish individuals volunteered to serve as monitors at the polling stations. These volunteers number in the tens of thousands.

There are worries regarding potential efforts to undermine the outcomes or meddle in the procedure, in case the PiS party suffers a loss. The results of the election are confirmed by the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs, which has been included in the supreme court by the PiS administration.

Budka stated that he thinks PiS's time has passed. He expressed his belief that even if they attempt anything sneaky, it wouldn't alter the outcome.

This article features extra information contributed by Katarzyna Piasecka.