Bundesliga Odds: Mainz-Dortmund prediction, pick, how to watch

The 17th round of the Bundesliga continues as the FSV Mainz 05 (5-5-6) host Borussia Dortmund (9-1-6). Check out our Bundesliga odds series and read along our Mainz-Dortmund prediction and pick.

Mainz is working their way the build a momentum as they play along in the German Football League. Since the stoppage of international football games in preparation of the World Cup, Mainz only got to play in the pitch three times for club-friendly games, which resulted to a win over FC Luzern and draws with RCD Mallorca and 1899 Hoffenheim. Upon the turn of the 2023 calendar, they clinched a draw with VfB Stuttgart.

Borussia Dortmund is also building up their winning ways. They have played seven club-friendly games, losing only twice to Vietnam and Fiorentina. Their latest fixture was a 4-3 win over FC Augsburg, which saw goals from Jude Bellingham, Nico Schlotterbeck, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, and Givanni Reyna.

Here are the Mainz-Dortmund soccer odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

FSV Mainz 05: +200

Borussia Dortmund: +120

Draw: +260

Over 2.5 Goals: -162

Under 2.5 Goals: +134

TV: DAZN

Stream: ESPN +

Time: 12:30 PM ET / 9:30 AM ET

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Bo Svensson’s side carries some motivation to avenge Dortmund. Their last five fixtures showed three wins to Dortmund, with Mainz securing one victory way back in 2020. While serving as hosts in this series of the Bundesliga, Mainz also has not found optimistic results, as they have racked up only two wins on home soil – a 5-0 thrashing against FC Koln.

With the coming of the new year, Mainz should also work on its offensive set-ups. In 16 games played this season, they have only found the back of the net 20 times. They are also having a 45.8% ball possession rate, and are averaging 13 total shots and 4.9 corners per game, so they really need some serious upgrades in the offense. Forwards Marcus Ingvartsen and Karim Onisiwo should also look to score more goals, while Aaron Martin, Dominik Kohr, and Jae-Sung Lee should try to find their rhythm in the midfield.

The squad is also expected to adhere to its 3-4-1-2 positioning. They will have to play these games without Kohr, Delano Burgzorg, Jonathan Burkardt, and Marlon Mustapha while Maxim Leitsch and Robin Zentner are probable to play. If they look to improve their 12th-place standing currently, a win against Dortmund might just be the jump start they need. The 05ers should also expect a more offensive game from the Yellows, so Stefan Bell, Alexander Hack, and Anthony Caci should strive to make a defensive wall for Mainz.

BVB currently sits at seventh in the Bundesliga table, just eight points away from league leaders Bayern Munchen and trailing behind RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt, Union Berlin, Freiburg, and Wolfsburg. BVB’s run in the past 16 games of this tourney has been inconsistent, as the team already suffered surprise losses from Koln, Weder Bremen, and Borussia Monchengladbach.

Edin Terzic’s squad has got some fixing to do, and with a recent win from Augsburg, Die Borussen is primed to make a gradual climb in the Bundesliga ladder. The Black and Yellows are likely to field a 4-2-3-1 positioning in the game, but they will have to do well in this game without Jude Bellingham, who is serving his suspension, while Abdoulaye Kamara, Thomas Meunier, and Mateu Morey, who are sidelined for their injuries. Marco Reus appears to be doubtful to enter this match.

The BVB is also the sixth among German teams to field the most goals at 29, tied with Koln. Youssoufa Moukoko is expected to spearhead Dortmund’s offensive charge, while Julian Brandt, Giovanni Reyna, and Marius Wolf are making improvements as the team’s midfielders. Schlotterbeck and Raphael Guerreiro are also making waves as playmaking defenders for the club. Their 57.8% ball possession rate per game is one of the highest in the league, which has produced 29 goals, 22 coming from assists.

For the club to win this matchup, they must seek to lower their awful defensive displays. Dortmund concedes 1.5 goals, loses 143.8 possessions, and commits 9.6 fouls and 2.2 yellow cards per game.  They should capitalize on improving defensive metrics where they shin, such as 19 tackles, 9.6 interceptions, and 14.3 clearances per game.

Despite having a crowd disadvantage, Dortmund are primed to start a series of wins this season. Moukoko, Anthony Modeste, and Donyell Malen should find the back of the nets, as Mainz’ backline defense remains frail. Reyna and Brandt are also expected to go aggressive in this fixture. This is a closely-fought contest, but back Dortmund in what is likely a high-scoring match.

Final Mainz-Dortmund Prediction & Pick: Borussia Dortmund (+125), Over 2.5 goals (-162)