Local election results 2024: BBC projected national share puts Labour on 34%

Local Elections 2024

The BBC recently revealed its predicted percentage of votes for each political party in the upcoming local elections. According to their projections, Labour is expected to receive 34% of the votes, which is nine points more than the Tories. However, it is one point less than the estimated percentage of votes Labour received in the previous two election cycles.

Local Elections 2024 - Figure 1
Photo LabourList

According to the BBC's estimated national share, Labour would have received 34% of the vote if voters throughout the country had voted similarly to those who participated in the wards contested by all three main parties during the recent local elections. The Conservatives would have received 25%, the Liberal Democrats 17%, and the remaining parties would have received 24%.

According to the predictions, Labour was expected to have a 35% share at a national level in both 2022 and 2023. John Curtice, while speaking to the BBC, mentioned that it seemed like both, Labour and the Tories, were not performing as well as they did before. This was partly due to some great performances by the Greens, Independents, and Reform.

The main pollster informed the broadcaster that the situation is mostly static. There isn't any significant change, and all political parties should question themselves if they could have done better. However, the Labour party is still the leading one.

The Conservative party is projected to have its worst national share this year, which is the same as the lowest share it has ever recorded. This is based on previous estimates which suggest that the party got a 25% share of the vote in 1995 and 2013. The Conservatives' share this year is only one point less than it was during the previous elections, which is also the same as the Labour party.

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In the meantime, Sky News shared their tentative estimation of the election results, placing Labour at 35% and the Tories at 26%. Using these calculations, the broadcaster predicted that in a general election, Labour would hold the most seats with a total of 294 – just shy of a majority win with 32 seats needed for that ultimate victory.

The Labour party is currently leading the national opinion polls by a significant margin, consistently staying ahead of the Conservative party. According to Politico's "poll of polls," which combines data from several sources, Labour is currently 21 percentage points ahead of their opponents.

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