‘The Fall Guy,’ ‘Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes’ Launch 2024 Summer Movie Season

The upcoming week marks the beginning of May and also kicks off the 2024 summer movie season. On May 3rd, The Fall Guy will be released, followed by Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes on May 10th. Normally, the first weekend of May is reserved for a highly-anticipated Marvel Studios film or another major blockbuster franchise. However, this year, it seems like anything could happen, and we can't predict which movies will be the biggest hits.

"Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" features Kevin Durand as one of its main actors.

As I chatted about yesterday, the start of 2024 is going pretty well in terms of box office results. This is largely thanks to three movies that have done better than expected: Dune: Part Two, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, and Kung Fu Panda 4. Their success has given the first three months of the year a helpful push, which is especially important given that the rest of the year is also predicted to be a bit tricky for the film industry.

"Are Men The Scapegoat For Summertime Dating?"

Coming up in two weekends, we have the chance to witness another amazing performance with the release of The Fall Guy in cinemas. The previews have done a phenomenal job in preparing us for a remarkable debut, and Ryan Gosling’s popularity has skyrocketed after his appearance in the hit movie Barbie which earned billions last summer.

The movie "The Fall Guy" is expected to make about $40 million during its first weekend in the United States. However, it could exceed expectations if people start talking about it positively. In particular, women and girls may show more interest than predicted.

At first glance, it may seem like a movie that only caters to male viewers who crave action, but I strongly believe that it has the ability to appeal to a broader audience and earn popularity among both genders. Though I'm not expecting it to reach the level of success as Barbie movies, it wouldn't be a shocker if The Fall Guy surpasses projections with impressive figures and minimal decreases.

It's important to note that before the pandemic, we used to observe movie openings earning between $85-100 million during the first two weeks of May and throughout the entire summer movie season.

On May 10th, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is being released, and it aims to bring back the franchise's previous success at the box office. I believe that this movie will do very well during the beginning of the summer movie season in North America, and earn between $50-60 million in its opening weekend. Nevertheless, these numbers are lower compared to big hit movies like Marvel superhero films and other franchises that typically bring in $100-200 million during their opening weekends, just like The Fall Guy.

However, the titles that are anticipated to carry most of the weight this year are not on the same level as those top-notch performers that came before. Therefore, if The Fall Guy can't reach the same level as a sequel to Top Gun or a movie from the Avengers franchise, it's understandable.

Similarly, Planet of the Apes is a popular franchise, but it usually falls into the category of mid-range blockbusters. Its highest box office gross was $710 million, achieved with the release of Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in 2014, which also had the largest opening weekend in the United States with $72 million. As a result, this new sequel is following in the footsteps of a series that is constantly in demand but seldom a major box office success. It is the kind of sequel that has repeatedly failed during the pandemic years.

A $55 million start for a movie might not seem too bad, even if it's not the norm for May theatrical releases. The movie Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is still aiming for a $100 million international debut, which would result in an opening of around $150 million.

The Kingdom movie has a reasonable budget of approximately $125 million, and the advertising has been cleverly executed. As a result, the expectations for the film's success are not too high. I anticipate that it will generate around $400-500 million at the box office. Still, I may modify my forecast after I have seen the film and we are closer to its release date.

Moving Ahead In A Fresh Direction

There are multiple reasons for why the theatrical industry is still struggling. One factor is due to the ongoing pandemic, which has caused many theaters to shut down or have reduced capacity. Additionally, the increasing popularity of home entertainment has also contributed to the decline of movie theaters, especially with the implementation of lockdowns worldwide. Another reason could be due to audiences becoming tired of certain trends, such as the abundance of superhero films, constant nostalgic sequels, and shared-universe attempts. Some people have also noticed a decrease in quality within certain genres and series. Lastly, economic factors have also played a role in the downturn of the theatrical industry.

So, without the guarantee typically provided by major recognized intellectual properties that can generate the type of blockbuster releases that we're used to during the summer season, we can consider Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and The Fall Guy as a lower-ranked group of franchises working together to produce high-performing box office results similar to top-ranked franchises.

In a hypothetical scenario where both movies reach their maximum potential, they could potentially bring in a whopping $100 million from their opening showings in the US and a grand total of $1 billion from their worldwide box office earnings. What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the movies were made with relatively modest budgets, which is a far cry from what a big-budget sequel to a top-tier franchise would demand in terms of investment.

Once more, an attempt to comprehend the ongoing chaos in the entertainment industry. However, it could be beneficial to consider how film releases can be arranged and alternated in response to ongoing issues with distribution and theater models. This approach would distribute risks among various projects while utilizing established franchise actors, enabling resources to be allocated to experimental ventures that may be overlooked when all the funding is directed towards big-budget, high-tier blockbusters.

While it may not be a permanent solution to the issues troubling the theater industry, it is a strategy that could minimize the harm and compel production companies to adopt more effective tactics, manage their budgets more efficiently, and incorporate a broader range of genres and narratives in their future endeavors.