London mayor election: The three big issues that could decide Khan’s fate

Get Expert Analysis Straight To Your Inbox With View From Westminster Email

Free Westminster Email: Stay Informed

People in England and Wales will head to polling stations this Thursday for the next set of community elections. Among the many councillors vying for seats, a historic 12 metropolitan mayors are up for election — including the esteemed Mayor of London.

Sadiq Khan, the current holder of the position, is seeking a third term for the Labour Party. However, he faces strong opposition from the Conservative candidate Susan Hall, along with nine other candidates in the race. One of the most contentious contenders is Jeremy Cox from the Reform UK party, whose right-wing views have sparked controversy.

When campaigning, Mr Khan wants to highlight his achievements. These achievements consist of increasing the rail and bus routes and keeping ticket prices the same for people residing in London.

Stay updated with the elections through our real-time coverage available here.

The mayor of London has also promised actions to confront the continuing problem of high living expenses and housing difficulties that many people in the city are encountering. These involve providing free meals at school for all kids, and building 40,000 fresh government-owned homes.

The other contestants in the race have set their sights on marking boundaries in alternative positions. One of the top priorities for many of the contenders is to modify or completely eliminate Mr. Khan's implementation of the Ulez expansion, which has remained a source of heated controversy.

Thursday's mayoral contest is expected to be the toughest challenge for the current Labour mayor. He has acknowledged the difficulties he faces, including criticisms of his approach to knife crime and proposals to alter the voting process.

Discover all the important details about the three major concerns which have influenced the mayoral election of London:

ULEZ Debate Continues With Reform UK

The Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) in London is a specified zone within the city that imposes a daily fee of £12.50 on individuals who drive vehicles that do not comply with the emission standards. Recently, Mr. Khan decided to extend the zone's coverage to all London boroughs, and this move has been receiving continuous criticism.

The Ulez was created with the aim of making the air in the city cleaner, and most professionals believe that it is working well. According to the mayor's office, the policy helped to decrease dangerous pollutants by 50% in the initial year. However, other research has stated that there was a smaller reduction of around 15-20%.

Yet, some people have criticized the latest extension, claiming that it will increase expenses without making a considerable impact on the air quality of London. They argue that it will add an ill-timed extra cost to those residing inside the M25, which is happening in the midst of an ongoing financial hardship.

The problem has caused a significant split in the electorate of London. It was a key topic of debate in the recent Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, which happened when Boris Johnson resigned. In the run-up to the election, there was a lot of active campaigning against the expansion, and some of the Ulez cameras in the locality were even attacked or destroyed.

The policy has been transferred to a local level, which means that the central government is not able to reverse it. However, Steve Tuckwell, who is a candidate for the Conservative party, has been associated with criticism of the policy, and this has been linked to his narrow win.

Mr. Tuckwell told Sky News following his election that they emerged victorious due to the referendum on Ulez.

The mayor's team is persistently opposing this matter. They have made an effort to emphasize that 85% of the vehicles in the outskirts of London already conform to Ulez regulations. Moreover, they denied the possibility of implementing a speculated payment system based on the number of miles driven in September.

However, as the mayoral election approaches, the topic continues to be a source of disagreement.

Susan Hall, a mayoral candidate from the Conservative Party, promised to remove the Ulez expansion as a top priority and make sure that a fee per mile is not implemented, even though Mr. Khan maintains that he has no intention of doing so.

In the meantime, Jeremy Cox from Reform UK has taken a more extreme position by stating that he would eliminate the entire policy, including inner London, and reimburse all Ulez fees that have been collected since the expansion in August.

The activist who advocates for drivers has also declared that he intends to eliminate London's low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs). LTNs divert traffic from specific locations to enhance air quality and safety for pedestrians.

LTNs have sparked discussions among London residents and caused polarization, much like the Ulez controversy. Detractors claim that LTNs, which have been implemented for years in some cases, only lead to increased traffic on alternate paths, causing irritation for both commuters and locals.

Nevertheless, an examination that received support from the government discovered that low traffic neighborhoods usually function effectively and are well-liked. Furthermore, since they are delegated to the council level, the Mayor does not have the ability to eliminate them directly.

Capital's Knife Crime Increasing – Complex Reality

Leading up to the election, numerous individuals running against the mayor have criticized him for not taking adequate measures to combat the problem of knife-related offenses in the city. They claim that the number of incidents is rapidly increasing.

It's a fact that the incidents of knife violence in London have gone up since Mr Khan took office in 2016. Figures from the Met reveal that between 2015 and 2023, the number of recorded cases doubled, going from 9,743 to 14,577.

In the last month of 2019, there were an alarming number of knife-related crimes, tallying up to 15,462 cases. Fortunately, with the outbreak of the Covid pandemic, there has been a drastic drop in these incidents. However, it is concerning to note that such occurrences have been on the rise over the past few years.

The mayor of London, Mr Khan, has received criticism from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak regarding the city's crime rate. Sunak pointed out that London was the only location in the entire country to fall short of its police recruitment goals, which he attributes to "Labour leadership in charge".

The mayor has responded to this disapproval by stating that he is dealing with conservative budget cuts that have been in effect for many years.

According to him, we are attempting to address the considerable gap created by the government's budget reductions by putting our resources into supporting youths, providing them with access to programs such as youth clubs, after-school clubs, and mentoring.

The position of the politician has been supported by recent research from the highly regarded Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). Their research discovered that shutting down 70% of London's police stations since 2010 resulted in an 11% rise in the number of homicides and attacks in adjacent neighborhoods.

Even though it still ranks among the top four regions in England with a high incidence of knife crime, London didn't have the highest rate in 2023. In the previous year, the number of knife-related offenses committed per 100,000 residents in London was 137, placing it in second position. The West Midlands had the highest rate at 167. On average, across England, the rate of knife crime is 89 offenses per 100,000 people.

"Two Major Changes In Voting System"

The UK Electoral System underwent notable changes when the Elections Act was approved by the government in 2022. These changes have a significant impact on the counting of votes in the mayoral elections held in London.

In the past, people used to pick two options when voting for their preferred candidate, called the Supplementary Vote system. This method allowed individuals to choose a backup candidate in case their first choice was removed from the running and neither of the leading competitors received a majority of more than 50 percent. If the second option belonged to one of the top two candidates, then it was counted in the final results.

The new voting system called 'First Past the Post' will now allow voters to choose only one candidate, just like in general elections. The candidate who receives the highest amount of votes will be declared the winner.

Mr Khan won both of his elections in 2016 and 2021 by winning the second 'round' since he did not obtain 50 percent of first choice votes. Nevertheless, he would have still emerged victorious using the new system, as he garnered more votes than his opponents in second place.

Another significant modification that resulted from the Elections Act concerns the disputed voter ID regulations. Nowadays, voters are required to carry photo identification with them to the voting site when it's election day.

Accepted types of identification for voting include passports, driving licenses, and the recently introduced voter authority certificate. The government has claimed that these laws are necessary to prevent election fraud. However, detractors have argued that occurrences of such fraud in the UK are uncommon, and that the new laws could unfairly impede marginalized individuals from casting their votes.

Mr. Khan has shared his worries regarding the recent modifications by stating that the Conservative party implemented them in order to increase the probability of their nominee achieving victory.

The mayor urged people who supported the Lib Dem and Green parties as their backup choice in the last elections to vote for him only this time. He explained that the difference in votes will be narrower this time around.