Impact of Generative AI on 300 Million Jobs in Major Economies.

Goldman Sachs

The use of technology is expected to enhance the world's gross domestic product (GDP) by 7%; however, it also poses a threat of causing notable interference.

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Recent advancements in artificial intelligence have the potential to automate up to 25% of work carried out in the United States and eurozone, as per a study conducted by Goldman Sachs.

On Monday, the bank that deals with investments claimed that AI systems that are "generative" such as ChatGPT could bring about a surge in productivity. These systems have the ability to create content that is highly similar to that produced by humans. The bank stated that this could eventually lead to a 7% increase in the worldwide gross domestic product annually over a period of ten years.

According to the authors of the paper, Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani, technology has the potential to cause major changes in the job market. They predict that about 300 million full-time workers in major economies would be replaced by automation, which would cause significant disruption. This would primarily affect jobs in the legal and administrative sectors, which would be at risk of being replaced by technology.

According to the analysis of job tasks in thousands of occupations, it is estimated that about 66% of jobs in Europe and the United States are vulnerable to artificial intelligence automation to some extent.

The majority of individuals would only have about 50% of their tasks completed through automation and would likely remain employed, but with a portion of their time being available for more efficient tasks.

According to their estimation, about 63% of workers in the United States should fall under this category. The remaining 30% whose jobs require physical labor or operating outdoors may not be impacted by technological advancements; however, their work could still be vulnerable to automation in other ways.

However, around 7 percent of American employees hold positions wherein the use of generative AI could complete at least half of their duties, making them susceptible to being replaced.

According to the research by Goldman, Europe is likely to experience a comparable effect. The study suggests that roughly one-fifth of global work could be performed by AI, which equates to approximately 300 million full-time positions across significant economies. This is mainly because developing nations have a more significant percentage of manual jobs in employment.

The study is likely to fuel discussions about how AI technologies could enhance the poor productivity progress of developed countries and also lead to a fresh group of white-collar employees who may experience the same fate as those in the manufacturing industry during the 1980s.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the consequences will be less severe compared to various scholarly investigations that also took into consideration the influence of an expanded array of related technologies.

A recent report from OpenAI, the company responsible for developing the powerful GPT-4 AI technology, has revealed that as much as 80% of workers in the United States could have at least 10% of their duties taken over by generative AI. This conclusion was reached through a combination of human research and analysis by the company's sophisticated language model software.

This week, Europol - the organization responsible for enforcing the law - issued a warning about the potential dangers of generative artificial intelligence. They emphasized that this technology could be utilized by cyber criminals and fraudsters to create "dark LLMs", which could eventually become a primary method of criminal activity. It's important to be cautious and vigilant in the face of these advancements.

Goldman Sachs suggested that if businesses continue investing in artificial intelligence (AI) at a similar rate to how they invested in software in the 1990s, the United States could be seeing nearly 1% of their gross domestic product (GDP) invested solely in AI technology by the year 2030.

Goldman Sachs made predictions regarding the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on various occupations by analyzing data from the United States and Europe. They studied the typical tasks performed in thousands of different jobs and concluded that AI could potentially handle tasks like filing tax returns for a small business, assessing intricate insurance claims, and documenting crime scene investigations.

They didn't expect AI to be used for tasks that require high sensitivity such as deciding in a court case, monitoring a critical care patient's condition, or analyzing international tax regulations.

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