U.S. diesel prices have fallen below prices from before Russia's invasion of Ukraine

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The information comes from CME Group and Bloomberg L.P.

Since January 2023, the cost of ultra-low sulfur diesel front-month futures in the United States has dropped every month. By May, the average cost per gallon was $0.50 lower than it was in February 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine. The invasion, and the resulting global response, caused significant disruptions in oil and petroleum product markets worldwide for more than a year.

Crude oil is used to make diesel, this means that there is a direct connection between the cost of crude oil and diesel prices. During spring 2022, there were concerns about the amount of diesel available worldwide which caused a rapid increase in the cost of diesel both in the USA and across the globe. These concerns were brought about by a possibility that there could be less petroleum exports from Russia. As a result, crude oil prices soared and reached their highest level since 2014. This had an impact on diesel futures prices in the USA, which rose to an average of $4.30/gallon in June 2022.

Even though crude oil prices decreased during the last part of 2022, the cost of U.S. diesel futures went up once more in October to $3.95/gal due to seasonal demand and worries about diesel supply for Europe. Every year, during the fall, there's an increase in the need for diesel in the United States and Europe, as winter approaches. Additionally, in June 2022, the European Union declared that it would disallow petroleum product imports from Russia, which would start in February 2023, and this announcement also played a part in the price peak in October 2022.

Throughout history, Russia has been known to export the greatest amount of diesel in Europe. However, a recent development in 2023 has caused the prices of diesel to go down in both Europe and the United States. This was due to the fact that Europe was able to find alternative sources for diesel imports, replacing most of the diesel they would have typically obtained from Russia.

Data was gathered by Vortexa Analytics, with the exception of certain countries including Türkiye, Ukraine, Georgia, Bulgaria, and Azerbaijan.

Starting in February of 2023, the European Union prohibited the importation of petroleum products from Russia. As a result, Russia's diesel exports to Europe have dropped by 96%, averaging only 24,000 barrels per day compared to the previous year's 630,000 b/d. However, diesel exports to Europe from the Middle East, Asia, and North America have increased significantly during the period between February and May. The Middle East saw a jump of 51%, Asia's rose by 97%, and North America's increased by 65%, with each continent exporting 160,000 b/d, 147,000 b/d, and 47,000 b/d, respectively.

The cost of diesel, which is a product that is sold internationally, rose in Europe during 2022. This caused the price of distillates in the United States to also go up, even though the majority of distillate exports from the U.S. are not sent to Europe, but rather to Latin American countries.

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