FactCheck: Labour’s claim the Conservatives would spend £71bn on policies

The Labour party has estimated the expense of several hypothetical policies proposed by the Conservative party, revealing that they amount to "pledges worth £71 billion that Rishi Sunak has already committed to."

However, do the calculations make sense?

Let's examine the information provided by FactCheck.

Is £71bn Justifiable?

According to Labour, their estimates encompass the expenses that would be accrued by the nation if the Conservatives were in power during the closing year of the forthcoming parliamentary term, which is set to conclude in 2029-30, right before the next election.

Labour alleges that a significant portion of the £71 billion sum is the Conservative Party's purported promise to eliminate National Insurance Contributions, which they estimate at £46 billion.

According to the Labour party, Jeremy Hunt promised to do this during the Spring Budget.

He expressed that the cuts to National Insurance will only continue if it is done responsibly, without adding more debt, and without reducing the quality of public services. His aim is to make sure that work is truly worth the effort by cutting National Insurance in a responsible and sustainable manner.

A week after, he conveyed to the Treasury Committee: "It's not going to happen in one parliament, but it's something we hope to achieve over the long haul." Additionally, he stated: "Numerous parliamentary terms will be required for this undertaking to be completed."

The document titled “Conservatives’ Interest Rate Rise”, released by the Labour party, asserts that the policy is aimed for the upcoming parliament. The opposition has estimated the associated expenses commencing in 2025-26.

We believe that stating the cost of £46bn per year for this policy starting next year is not accurate, as the Conservatives have not yet committed to it - and the Chancellor has indicated that it will not occur in the upcoming parliament.

According to Labour's calculations, the Conservatives will use up £10 billion every year by 2029-30 if they eliminate inheritance tax completely.

However, as per Labour's statement, the estimation is made upon a presumption, as the Conservative party has yet to verify its intentions regarding the matter.

Continuing with the subject of taxation, the Labour party has computed that the Conservative party would require a yearly expenditure of £7.7 billion in order to eliminate what has been referred to by Jeremy Hunt as "distortions" in the tax scheme.

The Labour party has calculated a significant portion of this number, based on their assumption that the Conservative party will permit individuals to retain their child benefit even if their yearly income exceeds £60,000.

The blog section refers to a predicted expense that depends on an evaluation from a non-affiliated group called the Resolution Foundation. This forecast was made last year, but the group has now stated that they have modified their approach and have significantly decreased the expected cost. The British Broadcasting Corporation was informed of this update.

The Conservatives have announced their plans regarding the child benefit program, which differ slightly from the assumptions made by the Labour party.

Instead of allowing everyone to receive child benefits without regard to their income (as calculated by the Labour Party), the Conservatives have proposed to increase the limit at which individuals cease to qualify for such benefits to £120,000.

Therefore, this policy proposed by the Conservative party is expected to cost less money compared to the predictions made by the Labour party.

The National Service proposal by the Conservatives is mentioned in the report by the Labour party, however, the estimation of costs has been calculated on disputable presumptions.

According to the Labour party, a trainee soldier earns a starting salary of £18,687 which increases to £23,496 after they have successfully completed their basic training.

The total expense of hiring 30,000 teenagers aged 18, as per the Conservatives' proposal of National Service, has been calculated to be around £1.06 billion annually by taking into account the salary of a private at £35,358.

The Conservatives proposed a military training program that would last for a whole year. It seems like those who join the program would receive the basic training pay, which amounts to a total of £561m annually according to our calculations. Even if the recruits were paid the amount of £23,496 - which is given to those who finish their training - it would still only cost £705m annually. Both of these figures are significantly less than the £1.06bn that Labour has estimated.

According to Labour, the Conservative's proposed policies will result in a burden of £71 billion on taxpayers by the end of the next parliament, specifically in 2029-30.

However, these policies rely on the Conservatives still uncertainly committing to them in the upcoming parliamentary term, or potentially not implementing them at all.

The exact amount that the taxpayer would have to pay under a Conservative government cannot be determined until the manifesto is made public.

The representatives of the Labour Party have been reached out to for their statement.