Reform UK’s biggest danger is that it will make the Tories even worse

It's possible that Richard Tice's promise to run in every electoral district is simply a strategy for negotiations.

Many individuals who desired an extended pause from politics during the holiday season were let down yesterday when Richard Tice, the head of the populist group Reform UK, chose to begin the countdown to the next election with a media briefing.

It can be easy to dismiss Reform UK as insignificant in the world of British politics. They only have five council members throughout the UK, compared to over 11,000 total members. Even the local party, Reform Derby, has more council members than Reform UK. They don't have any Members of Parliament and it's unlikely they will gain any seats in the upcoming general election.

Yesterday's media briefing had to hint at the possibility of Nigel Farage being present by promoting it as "Tice and friends," indicating that the party is close to becoming irrelevant.

However, there is a strong opposing viewpoint that is particularly persuasive to Conservative Members of Parliament. Reform UK appears to be essentially the political arm of GB News, aligning closely with its financiers, supporters, and on-air personalities. This holds even truer than for the Conservative Party.

Not many small political parties have a news channel that supports their beliefs as much as Reform does. Even though they rarely get enough votes to keep their deposit in a real election, they have ten to twelve percent of the support in national polls. Most of these supporters come from the Conservative Party, but they also take votes from Labour and the Lib Dems, which is often overlooked.

The current topic that has everyone thinking is the fact that Tice has announced he is not interested in forming any pacts similar to the ones made in 2019. At that time, Reform (now the Brexit Party) agreed not to field any candidates in constituencies with Conservative MPs already in office. However, because the Conservative party has "betrayed" Brexit, Tice has said that his party will run candidates in every constituency. This is bad news for the Tories, as it makes their electoral map even more difficult to navigate.

People who have progressive beliefs may feel inclined to relax, snack on popcorn, and say, "let them fight" in response to certain situations. While this may seem harmless, it's important to keep in mind that there are a few things to consider.

One reason why it's not good to have the populist right in power is that it usually causes the moderate right to take actions to satisfy them. In the UK, the Conservative Party is becoming increasingly harsh towards asylum seekers and using aggressive language towards immigrants. This approach does not benefit anyone who deserves support.

It's important to be cautious about the things we desire. In 2015, many liberal groups in America were vocal about their desire to see Donald Trump win the Republican primary. Their belief was that this would pave the way for the Democrats to take control of the House, Senate, and presidency come November 2016. As we all now know, that outcome did not materialize.

Believing Tice's statement that he will run candidates in all English, Scottish, and Welsh parliamentary seats is unwise. He is simply using it as a bargaining tactic and not a guaranteed commitment. Tice may change his mind if the Conservatives offer him sufficient concessions regarding their manifesto. It's crucial to note that running candidates in over 600 seats is a costly endeavor, and Tice may have to reconsider his plans.

In the Tory party, there are various groups with conflicting beliefs about what represents their core values. Some are moderate and practical, and desire a responsible approach to governing with limited government involvement. Others are libertarians who champion severe reductions in taxes, a smaller state, and an emphasis on economic liberalism. Despite evidence that disproves their agenda, they maintain that it will benefit the nation. Then there are those who define themselves as culture warriors, and their primary goal is to agitate those on the opposite end of the political spectrum. Lastly, there is a surge of populists who favor Reform UK's platform, but still aspire to belong to a government-affiliated party.

Rishi Sunak has not presented a clear idea of what the Conservative Party stands for. Instead, he constantly switches between various political beliefs to satisfy whichever group he feels threatened by or that is on his mind due to recent opinions he has heard. This lack of consistency within the party makes it vulnerable to being influenced by Reform UK, even though it would not be logical for them to do so according to electoral strategy.

The apparent power of Reform UK is a sign that the Tory Party is fundamentally weak, but the leaders of the party are unlikely to recognize this fact before an election. As a result, we can expect to hear a lot of talk about Reform UK, but it is not necessary to pay it too much attention.