Reform UK voter support highlights threat to Rishi Sunak’s right flank

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Ever since the Revamp UK party was re-introduced towards the end of 2020, it has turned out to be comparatively less successful in by-elections. However, the recent events demonstrate that the populist competition on Rishi Sunak's conservative right border could potentially impact the number of votes received by the Conservatives.

On Friday, Reform managed to obtain 13% of the vote in Wellingborough, located in Northamptonshire. Additionally, they also secured 10% of the votes in Kingswood, which is located near Bristol. These results prove to be a significant milestone for the party, as they have never achieved double-digit vote percentages in by-elections before.

Even though Labour managed to win the two seats previously held by the Conservatives due to a significant shift in votes, the way Reform fared gave an indication of how Sunak might face difficulties during the upcoming general election, which is supposed to take place this year. The major challenge could be in regions where most of the people voted in favour of Brexit back in 2016.

The leader of the Reform party, Richard Tice, expressed his happiness about the results on Friday in an interview with the Financial Times. He stated that he was pleased that the party's survey results had turned into real votes.

Recent nationwide surveys have indicated a continual rise in the backing for the Reform party, escalating from a mere 3 percent as of October the previous year, to an impressive 10 percent just ahead of the by-elections taking place this week.

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According to Philip Cowley, who is a professor of politics at Queen Mary University in London, the outcomes of Thursday's election were the initial indication that the Reform party posed a real threat to the Conservative party.

He mentioned that at present, they are encountering a favorable response in the polls for the Labour party, while the Reform party is gaining support from the conservative bloc.

He stated that the possibility of the Liberal Democrats gaining power in certain southern constituencies would result in Sunak having to battle on three fronts in England and Wales.

On Friday morning, Helen Harrison, who is representing the Tory party in Wellingborough, stated to the media that Reform could pose a danger to the Conservatives. Additionally, Sunak cautioned that voting for anyone other than the Conservative candidate would ultimately result in Keir Starmer coming into power.

However, even if every Reform supporter had voted for the Tories in Wellingborough, the Labour party would still have been the winner over the Conservatives.

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Prior to Thursday, Reform UK has performed below its average polling results in most of the by-elections it has participated in since it underwent rebranding from the Brexit party in November 2020.

In just two seats, Reform managed to exceed its polling averages. These seats were Old Bexley and Sidcup, which is an affluent London suburb, and North Shropshire, a constituency that was long known to be secure for the Conservative Party until it was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2021.

During the past 14 by-elections that took place since November 2020, the Reform party didn't do as well as they were expected to. However, in the years leading up to the 2016 Brexit referendum, their predecessor, Ukip, usually exceeded their polling expectations.

According to Keiran Pedley, who works at the polling company Ipsos Mori, Reform has nominated well-known candidates, such as their deputy leader, in Wellingborough and Kingswood. The intention is to obtain a significant percentage of the votes, which would create pressure on the Conservative party.

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According to him, Reform faced a major challenge with these two seats. The Conservatives' policies were influenced by UKIP, Brexit Party, and Reform, demonstrating a connection between them. Moreover, there is a group of right-wing voters who are willing to support this alliance.

The two regions were supportive of Brexit during the referendum in 2016, which meant that Reform was anticipated to have high levels of success there. Wellingborough had a 63 percent vote for Brexit, while Kingswood had a 57 percent vote.

Before the vote, Ben Habib, who is both the deputy leader of the party and a candidate in Wellingborough, emphasized that Reform is a legitimate political competitor, rather than a mere advocacy group.

He explained to the Financial Times that our purpose is not to aid in the transfer of control to a specific group.

Last weekend, he wore a blue "Vote Ben Habib" cap among the 400 he had purchased for the campaign. He stated that Reform was attempting to attract Conservative voters who were hesitant to support them. These traditional voters could potentially be won over by Reform's platform.

As Habib moved from one house to another, he spoke to prospective voters about Reform's mission to eliminate a "dishonest political establishment". A sizable number of those who indicated their endorsement revealed that they watched Nigel Farage's program on the television network GB News.

The upcoming release of Reform's manifesto, dubbed as a "contract with the people", is scheduled for the end of February. The content of this document is anticipated to emphasize topics such as immigration, eliminating net zero practices, and reducing taxes.

Before the upcoming by-elections in Wellingborough, two residents from the area, Phillis Sangster who is 75 years old and her daughter Julia, who is 50 years old, had different views on whether or not they should continue to support the Conservative party.

Phillis stated that despite talking about Reform, she will cast her vote in favor of the Conservative party. According to her, the Tories have been beneficial for them, especially through their implementation of the pension triple lock and their strict stance towards immigration.

Julia was not fully convinced and expressed her opinion that the Conservative party appears to prioritize words over taking action. She believes that the country needs more concrete reforms.