Could Reform UK surge sink Tory election hopes?
Richard Tice is ecstatic about the remarkable by-election victory achieved by Reform UK. He proclaimed that this is the best ever result the party has gained.
Authored by Sam Francis and Oscar Bentley The following article is written by Sam Francis and Oscar Bentley.
Reform UK achieved its highest by-election outcome to date, delivering a stark message for the Conservatives before the upcoming general election.
The newly-named Brexit Party managed to secure 13% of the votes in Wellingborough and 10.4% in Kingswood, which is quite similar to the percentage they have been projected to receive all over the country.
According to the analysis carried out by BBC on significant opinion polls, there has been a remarkable surge in the support for the party in the past few months. This surge has led to an average increase of 10%, which is almost twice the value it had last year.
Up to this point, it has encountered difficulties in replicating this achievement during election periods.
Based on the statistics, it appears that the Reform party garnered the majority of their support from the Conservative party during the recent by-elections on Thursday. This is evident as the Conservatives experienced significant losses to the Labour party in terms of the seats they had previously held.
Prof Sir John Curtice's assessment, based on polls, reveals that for each individual who has changed their vote from Conservative to Labour in 2019, there is a corresponding person who has switched to Reform UK.
The head of the Reform UK party, Richard Tice, has expressed his desire to completely demolish the Conservative Party in the upcoming general election. Tice has firmly stated that Reform UK would never pursue a similar strategy to the Brexit Party, who reached an agreement with the Conservatives in 2019 and withdrew candidates from 317 areas once leader Boris Johnson promised to deliver Brexit by 2020.
Reform's message is aimed at voters who are discontent with the two major political parties. Additionally, Mr. Tice has been just as critical of the Labour Party.
However, the policies of the political party align with the beliefs of numerous individuals on the conservative wing of the Tory Party. These policies involve a more stringent stance on immigration and abandoning the government's targets for achieving net zero carbon emissions.
In an interview with Nicky Campbell on BBC Radio 5Live, Mr Tice stated that his political party was maturing and growing up.
According to him, an increasing number of individuals are becoming aware of us and acknowledging that our policies are favorable. They appreciate our unique and professional approach.
In the aftermath of the by-elections, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, who used to be a cabinet minister, stated that the Conservatives must concentrate on attracting those voters who chose Reform. He also noted that there were many shared interests between the two parties.
He maintained his backing for Mr Sunak's leadership remained "firm" and "the outcomes of by-elections will not alter that."
Nigel Farage was in the center of the media's attention when he showed up at the formal introduction of ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss' movement named 'Popular Conservatism.'
The Tory Party is greatly concerned about the possibility of Nigel Farage making a comeback. He still has a loyal following on the right-wing of the party. There are worries that he will campaign vigorously for Reform UK.
At present, Mr Farage holds the position of honorary president at Reform. He has made it clear that he has no intentions of running for parliament for the eighth time.
It is anticipated that he will have an influential position in the forthcoming election campaign for the party.
According to a conservative insider who spoke to BBC's Chris Mason, the truth of the matter is that Labour is on track for a significant win, while a right-wing party is gaining momentum and attracting more than 10% of the vote.
When Nigel Farage spoke up just two months before the upcoming election, the situation became dire. It's like watching a disaster happen in slow motion.
Minor political groups find it difficult to secure positions in the United Kingdom's first-past-the-post voting system. Reform UK is a strong proponent of changing to a proportional representation approach.
According to the Conservatives, casting your ballot for the Reform party essentially means supporting Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party.
The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, declared that a vote given to anyone who isn't the Conservative candidate, for instance, Reform or any other party, will simply result in Keir Starmer coming to power.
The upcoming election offers a clear decision - it's either me or him, the Conservative or Labour party.
The photograph originates from Getty Images
The candidate representing Reform party in Wellingborough, Ben Habib, secured the third place by receiving a total of 13% votes.
The by-elections demonstrate that Reform is a serious competitor, however, they do not match the impressive achievements of their forerunners - UKIP and Brexit Party, both of which were headed by Mr. Farage.
UKIP managed to secure a couple of seats during the by-elections at Westminster, while the Brexit Party marked an impressive performance of almost 30% vote share in one of the by-elections held in the year 2019.
The support for Reform party is not adequate to secure any seats in the upcoming general election, however, it has the potential to adversely affect the Conservative Party's likelihood of maintaining its power.
On Thursday night, both seats up for election had voted in favor of leaving the European Union during the 2016 referendum. This indicates that the areas may have a larger population of voters who lean towards reform.
Kingswood and Wellingborough are two constituencies that tallied high percentages for the Leave vote during the referendum. Specifically, Kingswood recorded 57.1% while Wellingborough came in at 63%. This result solidified their position within the top 100 Leave-voting constituencies.
Should Reform maintain its growing support, it may draw significant backing from voters who typically support right-wing ideologies and the concept of Brexit. Such a shift in support could potentially create an opportunity for alternative political parties, specifically the Labour Party, to secure seats in regions that typically vote for Conservative candidates.
Some Conservative Members of Parliament are paying attention. Jane Stevenson, who is the Member of Parliament for Wolverhampton North East, recently shared on her social media that it was intriguing that the combined votes of Conservative and Reform parties would have prevented Labour from winning in Kingswood.
According to Pat McFadden, who is coordinating Labour's campaign, the outcomes of Thursday night's events would create division among the Conservative party members. The division would occur between the ones that aim to transform the party into Reform and the ones that intend to make an agreement with it.
The emergence of Reform UK implies a change in the political terrain.
Reform, a party that has not yet won a single MP, seems to have the ability to influence the trajectory of British politics and the makeup of the upcoming parliament.
