Iran rolls dice in conflict with Israel

The attack came shortly before 2 in the morning, as a large group of drones and missiles from Iran advanced over Israel's airspace. The sounds of sirens and explosions were heard throughout various areas, including Jerusalem, the southern Negev, and the northern border region, as Israel activated their air defence systems to intercept the incoming threat.

Many Israelis were in a state of nervous anticipation for several hours upon receiving a warning of an incoming collection of weapons. They hurriedly made their way to secure locations such as safe rooms or bomb shelters.

For over 40 years, Israel and Iran have been enemies and they have finally engaged each other in direct attacks. This increases the likelihood of a widespread regional war in the Middle East that Western and Arab leaders have been dreading ever since Hamas's attack on October 7th, which led to Israel's counterstrike on Gaza.

Currently, many people are curious about Israel's reaction to the recent attack by Hamas. Israel is experiencing a great deal of anger, trauma, and has mobilized for war, which adds to the uncertainty of their response to this unprecedented assault on their land.

Iran had been sending signals of an upcoming response following the apparent Israeli assault on the Islamic Republic's consular building in Damascus on April 1. The incident claimed the lives of high-ranking commanders in the Revolutionary Guards and occurred on what Tehran perceives as its own territory. The retaliation that eventually occurred was much greater in scale than anticipated, involving over 300 drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles launched from various locations aimed at Israel.

The Israeli military stated that they were able to neutralize "99 percent" of the projectiles with the help of the United States. There seems to be little physical damage, and thankfully, there have been no reported deaths.

The Islamic republic has made a bold statement by launching a large-scale attack. This action shows that they are willing to take a risk by directly confronting Israel, which could potentially lead to the US becoming involved in combat. This move has dealt a significant blow to the hopes of western and Arab nations who were working to reduce tensions in the region and bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Iranian leaders have been expressing their desire to avoid direct confrontation with Israel and the US, as well as a major regional crisis, for six months. However, they have been creating tension by using warlike rhetoric and inciting instability.

Instead, it seemed like Iran was satisfied with expressing its hatred towards Israel through the Axis of Resistance. This group is made up of various militant organizations across the region that are supported by Tehran, such as Hizbollah in Lebanon, the militias in Iraq and Syria, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Hamas. According to experts, Iran's main focus was on protecting the Islamic regime's survival by keeping the conflict away.

As of late January, there were indications that Tehran was attempting to reduce tensions in the region. This was seen when Iranian-supported militant groups attacked an American base on the border of Jordan and Syria with drones, resulting in the deaths of three US soldiers.

After October 7, Iraqi militias instigated over 160 rocket and drone attacks on American troops in Iraq and Syria. Since February, they have put a stop to their assaults on US forces, although they are still claiming responsibility for attacks on Israel. Iran had discussions with the US in Oman in January, although they were done indirectly.

Tehran's plans shifted following the attack on their embassy in Damascus on April 1.

Israel's latest strike has shown that they are taking the war against Iran to a whole new level. This attack has dealt a huge blow to the Revolutionary Guards of Iran, furthering their humiliation. It's been reported that Israel has already taken down more than 10 military advisers and commanders with suspected strikes in Syria since October 7th.

The attack in Damascus that took the lives of seven guards, which included two high-ranking commanders, was seen as an Israeli move that had gone too far in Tehran. Since Israel was taken by surprise by the Hamas attack, it has been trying to regain its power to deter others. With this in mind, the Islamic regime has also been trying to re-establish its own power and influence. They are worried about appearing weak to their supporters at home and in the surrounding areas.

However, instead of deterring violence, the outcome will probably increase the frequency of violent incidents. The pivotal factor will be how and when the far-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu reacts and if the United States, desperate to reduce tensions but also dedicated to providing unwavering support to Israel, can prevent its partner from acting recklessly.

After the October 7 incident, people in Israel did not believe that Hamas posed a significant danger. Instead, they were concerned that Iran and groups affiliated with them would perceive Israel as being powerless and easy to attack, potentially threatening Israel's existence.

Israel believes that Hamas is not acting alone, but is under the control of Tehran. According to Israel, the Palestinian Islamist group and other militant groups that have been attacking Israel since October 7 are all being manipulated by Iran.

Since that time, Israel's aim has been to reaffirm its military strength and send a message to Iran that the conventional rules in the Middle East are no longer in effect. Israel will not only target Hamas in Gaza, but is also prepared to intensify its efforts in order to weaken other militant groups backed by Iran who present a threat to Israel.

If this had happened in any other period, the severe border conflicts involving Hizbollah and Israel would have been considered a complete war. Israeli attacks resulted in the death of over 250 Hizbollah soldiers, which is approximately the same amount of their fighters that passed away during the 2006 war against Israel.

However, at present, the situation has been recognized to be confined, though both parties have made significant advances into each other's territories, surpassing undetected boundaries.

The attack that Iran launched against Israel was an effort to revert to the previous norms agreed upon. However, the worry is that it might provoke Israel to intensify the on-going conflict with Hizbollah, the most potent and significant proxy of Iran.

According to Sanam Vakil, who is the Middle East director at Chatham House, Iran took a risk by carrying out the attack. However, Vakil thinks that if Iran had not taken this action, then Israel would have continued with its strategy of weakening both Iran’s military and their allies, specifically Hizbollah.

According to Vakil, if Israel doesn't take action to reinforce boundaries and regain their ability to discourage others, their continuous decline will never come to a halt.

According to her, Israel's reaction will have a significant influence. If they choose to intensify and attack nuclear installations, then we will enter completely new and uncharted territory.

If a major conflict at a regional level breaks out, it could cause significant consequences. Iran has relied on an asymmetric warfare strategy for a long time due to their lack of traditional weapons, utilizing the guards and the resistance axis to attack their adversaries and their associates.

When tensions have risen in the past, extremists in Iran have frequently vowed to disrupt the flow of shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, which is used by about one-third of all oil shipments by sea. Over the weekend, Iranian troops took control of a container ship connected to Israel in the vicinity of the strait.

Since October 7, the situation in the Middle East has been continuously deteriorating, and it has now reached a more critical level, posing greater risks.