Who is in the running to replace Humza Yousaf as SNP leader?

Humza Yousaf

If there is a competition to take the place of Humza Yousaf in the Scottish National party, then it could bring about a major challenge. The party does not have many potential candidates who possess the necessary expertise and public image to head the Scottish government.

Swinney, a former leader of the SNP and trusted deputy minister under Sturgeon, has stated that he doesn't necessarily want to run for office, but acknowledges that he is likely the preferred choice among the party's majority members due to his extensive experience and reputation as a fair and balanced centrist.

Swinney was also considered as a potential temporary leader and was happy to retire from his position as a cabinet minister when Sturgeon left last year to spend time with his family. It has been said that he would only step forward as a consensus candidate and not engage in a divisive competition. Swinney could be better suited than Kate Forbes (who is mentioned below) to gain a majority at Holyrood and garner support from the Greens.

He became the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the year 2000, following the sudden resignation of Alex Salmond. However, he only remained in the position for a short period of time, as he resigned in 2004 due to criticism from his own party members following disappointing results in the European elections.

Swinney hasn't been showing up at Holyrood often lately after quitting his government position. However, he didn't desert Sturgeon when she faced trouble due to police probing the SNP's financial matters. Whenever she faced the press at Holyrood, Swinney was there by her side.

At the age of 15, Swinney joined the party and has since held various positions, including that of a leader. He is a highly skilled politician who possesses a deep understanding of how the government operates and the relationship between Holyrood and the UK government. In fact, he is more knowledgeable than anyone else in the Scottish parliament. Swinney is also well-versed in the internal dynamics and historical loyalties of SNP politicians and members.

He is an experienced negotiator who received praise for his long-lasting discussions with the Westminster government following the Smith commission. The commission allowed for Holyrood to receive additional powers, which occurred after the 2014 referendum for Scottish independence.

Swinney is widely regarded as a dependable and reliable figure in his party. He is admired for his subtle charisma as well as his determined character.

Because Yousaf's leadership crisis happened very quickly and without warning, there hasn't been much time for any strong candidates to step forward. The only person who has emerged as a possible contender is Kate Forbes, who was Yousaf's main opponent in the leadership election last year.

In the western Highlands resides Forbes, a 34-year-old former finance secretary with conservative social views and the ability to speak Gaelic fluently. During the leadership race for the party after Nicola Sturgeon's resignation in February 2023, Forbes was a close runner-up but ultimately lost to Yousaf with a 48% to 52% margin. Forbes had differed in opinions with Sturgeon on various topics, including gender recognition, North Sea oil, and economic strategies.

After facing multiple issues with the Scottish Greens regarding various policies such as tax, climate, gender recognition, bottle recycling, and Sturgeon's broader political agenda, the Scottish government is in a bit of a crisis. If Forbes were to run for office, she would have a high chance of winning due to her popularity. However, her outspoken criticism of the Greens has caused her to lose support amongst the party's left, making it difficult for the SNP's minority government to receive backing from the Greens at Holyrood.

Forbes has been cautious in order to prevent any doubts or controversy about her future leadership aspirations or favoritism towards SNP members. This has slightly impacted her overall trustworthiness. However, she was one of the earliest supporters of Yousaf when the Scottish Greens faced a crisis recently. Therefore, Forbes has not tarnished her reputation and her supporters view her as an ideal candidate for the role of leader.

Gray, who serves as Scotland's health secretary, is frequently considered a potential future leader of the party. He's a friendly and amiable Orcadian with a background in representing Scotland as a 400m runner. While the 38-year-old is widely popular, he lacks significant experience in politics.

He became an MSP in May 2021, taking over from the experienced ex-minister and supporter of Salmond, Alex Neil, as MSP for Airdrie and Shotts. He decided to resign as an MP to run for election in Holyrood.

Gray, who has remained a strong supporter of Sturgeon, began his political career as a culture minister under her administration. Later, he became the economy secretary for Yousaf's first cabinet. However, due to the chaos arising from Michael Matheson's departure following the infamous £11,000 data roaming bill scandal, Gray was asked to take up the mantle of health secretary - a highly demanding job. It can be argued that this position presents one of the most complex policy portfolios.

Gilruth, who has been an MSP since 2016, became a minister in 2020. Initially, she held the position of Culture Desk Minister, then moved on to become the Minister of Transport before being appointed as the Education Secretary in March 2023 by Yousaf in his first cabinet.

Gilruth, the spouse of the former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, who they started their relationship with during her tenure, is perceived as immensely faithful to Sturgeon and her accomplishments.

Due to convention, the selection of candidates is restricted because an SNP leader is also the first minister of Scotland. This eliminates any potential candidate who is an MP, including Stephen Flynn, the lawmaker representing Aberdeen South who also serves as the party’s leader in Westminster.

It's unlikely that the cabinet secretary with the most experience in the Scottish government, Angus Robertson, a former leader of the SNP in Westminster, will run for office. Despite being a popular choice when Sturgeon resigned last year, he quickly withdrew from consideration as his colleagues didn't show much support and he prioritized his family.

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