Surprise win for leftwing alliance predicted in French election exit poll

A group of left-leaning parties were on their way to becoming the largest power in the French parliament on Sunday, thanks to strategic voting that prevented the far right from gaining ground. However, the makeup of the upcoming government was still unclear since no single group secured a majority.

The unexpected outcome for the left, who was predicted to win around 192 seats, was followed by President Emmanuel Macron's centrist group and the far-right party in third place. This result demonstrated the power of strategic voting against Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party. A surge in support for the far-right and its allies during the first round of voting was ultimately thwarted by widespread strategic voting to prevent them from gaining enough seats to take control of the government.

Even though the left alliance had a slight lead, they were still expected to fall short of an absolute majority by at least 100 seats. With a high voter turnout of around 67%, it was unlikely that any one group would secure the 289 seats needed to govern on their own. Instead, the parliament was likely to be divided into three main blocs: the left, centrists, and the far right.

France is facing a time of great uncertainty about who will lead the future government and become the next prime minister. Macron has assured that he will continue as president, but he has not made any public statements since Sunday night. He has urged people to be cautious until the final results are confirmed on Monday morning.

It may take several weeks to form a government as no single party has a clear majority. It is unclear which political party will be in charge when the Olympic Games begin in Paris in less than three weeks.

The prime minister, Gabriel Attal, stated he will submit his resignation to President Macron on Monday morning. However, he mentioned that he is willing to remain in his position temporarily until a new government is established, if necessary.

"Tonight marks the start of a new chapter," he announced, emphasizing that the future of France will be decided primarily by parliament."

Attal expressed that following the results of tonight, many French citizens are feeling unsure about what lies ahead due to the lack of a clear majority. France is facing a unique political situation as it gears up to host the Olympics in a few weeks. Attal stated that he will continue in his position as long as necessary.

Competition for seats in the new parliament started right away, with concerns of a stalemate. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head of the left-leaning La France Insoumise party, stated: "The president should call on the New Popular Front [left alliance] to take control."

The former interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, stated: "I see that no one can claim victory in this parliamentary election today, especially not Mr. Mélenchon."

Raphaël Glucksmann from Place Publique and the Socialist party, who is part of the left alliance, stated that even though they are currently in the lead, the parliament is divided. Therefore, they need to behave maturely by communicating, discussing, and engaging in dialogue.

The new alliance of political parties, known as the Popular Front, is made up of the previous ruling Socialist party, the left-leaning La France Insoumise, the Greens, and the Communists. Projections by Ipsos pollsters for the French public broadcaster suggest that this alliance could win between 172 and 192 seats.

Emmanuel Macron's moderate party, Ensemble, came in second place according to projections, expected to win between 150-170 seats. This is a significant loss of up to 100 seats, but still a better performance than anticipated.

Marine Le Pen's nationalist and anti-immigration National Rally (RN) was forecasted to secure the third position, with an estimated 132-152 seats, along with its political allies on the conservative side.

This was a significant achievement for the RN - its highest score ever in a parliamentary election, and an improvement from the 88 seats it held when parliament was dissolved last month. However, it fell short of the party's expectations after winning the most votes in the initial round last week.

Jordan Bardella, the president of RN, expressed his disapproval of the coalition formed to oppose the extreme right as a "shameful partnership".

Le Pen, who plans to run for president for the far-right in 2027, expressed confidence that the far-right's path to power will persist. She stated: "The momentum is increasing. While we may not have reached our peak this time, we are still gaining strength and our triumph has just been postponed."

The low number of votes received by the RN demonstrated the effectiveness of a strategic agreement made by centrists and the left last week to prevent the far right from gaining power.

Over 200 candidates from the liberal and moderate parties withdrew from the second round of elections last week to prevent the far-right party from gaining a majority of 289 seats and taking control of the government. They urged their supporters to vote for any other candidate in an effort to unite against the RN.

The political party, originally formed as the Front National by Jean-Marie Le Pen in 1972, has been criticized by those on the left and in the center for spreading racist, antisemitic, and anti-Muslim beliefs. Brice Tinturier, the CEO of Ipsos, stated that the election outcomes indicated that most French voters still viewed the RN as a threat.

Clémence Guetté, who won again with the left-wing La France Insoumise party, argued that the lower than anticipated results for the RN indicate that France is not a racist country and does not want to be split apart.

Macron, who is set to attend a Nato summit in Washington next week, is currently dealing with uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new government in the EU's second largest economy and strongest military force.

The election happened during a period of unease following Macron's unexpected decision to hold snap elections on 9 June. This move surprised his government and party members, as his centrists had suffered a significant defeat to the far right in the European elections.