Can Marvel’s ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ revive the box office?
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Deadpool & Wolverine, the third movie in Marvel's edgy, sarcastic superhero series, premieres in theaters this weekend with high expectations. Fans are hoping it will bring some excitement back to the summer box office and restore Marvel's reputation.
The movie, featuring actors Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, is predicted to make around $170 million at the box office in the United States this weekend. If these estimates are accurate, it would have the best opening of the year. Additionally, it would set a new record for the highest opening weekend for a movie rated R, meaning it is restricted to audiences under 17 unless accompanied by an adult.
A successful showing for Deadpool & Wolverine could help Marvel and its parent company, Walt Disney, as CEO Bob Iger has encouraged studio leaders to prioritize enhancing the quality of their movies.
Pixar, a Disney subsidiary that has faced challenges in the past, had a big success this summer with Inside Out 2. The movie opened to $155 million and has made $1.5 billion since its release on June 14, breaking a new global record for animated films. This surpasses the performance of Disney's 2019 hit Frozen 2 and has been a much-needed boost for cinemas during a tough year at the US box office.
The film industry struggled as it entered the summer season, with US box office earnings in 2024 dropping by almost 30% compared to the previous year, according to Paul Dergarabedian, an analyst at Comscore. He mentioned that people in the industry were feeling pessimistic during that time, especially after the disappointing box office results over the long Memorial Day weekend in the US.
One issue is there are not enough blockbuster movies available. Hollywood writers and actors went on strike last year, causing a six-month production shutdown. This led to delays in releasing major films like the third Dune movie and Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part Two. AMC, the biggest cinema chain in the world, recently reported a $33 million loss in the June quarter, attributing it to the strikes' impact on the movie lineup.
The summer box office is expected to get a boost from Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, but according to Dergarabedian, there is no big blockbuster set to be released in August.
Movie theater owners in America have been hoping for a comeback in audience numbers like before the pandemic. However, box office numbers this year have dropped by 34% compared to the summer of 2019, according to Comscore. In 2019, Disney made over $10 billion in ticket sales. But this year, experts predict that total box office revenue in the US may not even reach $8 billion.
According to Robert Fishman, a researcher at MoffettNathanson, achieving higher box office numbers than 2019 will be a challenge, but it is still achievable in the future. Similar to many others, he is concerned that people have stopped going to movie theaters due to the impact of Covid-19, strikes, and the increasing popularity of streaming platforms.
"We still have some worries about whether people will keep going to the movies as much as they used to," Fishman explained. "While popular movies are still doing great and breaking records, overall attendance is decreasing. We need people to start going to the movies more often to get back to normal."
These worries arise during a period of great stress in Hollywood. Paramount, a famous entertainment company with a storied studio that is a hundred years old, has recently decided to be purchased by Skydance, a young independent studio founded by David Ellison 14 years ago. Warner Bros Discovery is considering different strategies after its market worth dropped by 33% last year. Additionally, a recent article in the LA Times revealed that employment in the movie and television industry in LA is now at levels not seen in over three decades.
The anxiety at the traditional studios is causing a lot of worry and unease within the Hollywood community, according to Steven Kram, CEO of Content Partners.
There has been an increase in activity in the business world lately. Movies like Despicable Me 4, Twisters, Longlegs, and MaXXXine have been doing well. Exciting films are expected to come out in the fall, such as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in September, Joker: Folie a Deux in October, Moana 2 in November, and Mufasa: The Lion King at Christmas.
In simpler terms, Kram explained that it all comes down to the audience purchasing tickets at the movie theater. The success of the movie industry relies on the audience being willing to attend.
