Bangladesh: Can India help its special ally defuse the crisis?

The surprising decision by Bangladesh's prime minister Sheikh Hasina to step down and leave for India highlights the strong connection between the two nations.

Ms Hasina was in charge of Bangladesh, a country with a population of 170 million, for almost 15 years. However, what began as a peaceful student protest to eliminate civil service quotas escalated into a larger, violent movement against the government. Sadly, at least 280 individuals have lost their lives in the clashes between law enforcement and demonstrators opposing the government.

In June, Ms Hasina made two trips to India within a fortnight.

She first went to India to witness Prime Minister Narendra Modi take his oath of office. Following that, she had a two-day official visit, becoming the first head of government to visit India after Modi's party won their third straight victory in the parliamentary elections.

"We have convened on 10 occasions over the past year. Nonetheless, this gathering holds particular significance as Sheikh Hasina is the inaugural state visitor following the commencement of our government's third term," said Mr. Modi during a shared press briefing, international.

The friendly atmosphere was evident. Ms. Hasina expressed the importance of Bangladesh's relationship with India. She invited people to visit Bangladesh to see the progress made and future plans.

India and Bangladesh have a close connection. They have a long border of 4,096km (2,545 miles) and are linked through language, economy, and culture. Bangladesh used to be a part of Pakistan, but after a war in 1971, it became its own independent country with the help of India. The two countries have a trade relationship worth about $16 billion (£12 billion), and India is the biggest buyer of Bangladeshi exports in Asia.

Certainly, the connections are not flawless: disagreements emerge regarding Bangladesh's strong ties with China, border protection, immigration concerns, and certain Bangladeshi officials' unease with Mr. Modi's Hindu nationalist ideology.

Following Ms. Hasina's stepping down, the army chief of Bangladesh, Waker-uz-Zaman, has revealed intentions for a temporary government. He is set to have a meeting with President Mohammed Shahabuddin and it is believed that he is aiming to reach a resolution by the end of the day, following discussions with opposition groups, primarily the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). It is currently uncertain who will take charge of the interim government.

Until now, India has only referred to the violent protests in Bangladesh as an "internal matter". Is there more that India can say and do regarding the ongoing events?

"Absolutely nothing. There is no need for action at this time," stated Happymon Jacob, an expert on Indian foreign affairs, in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter) discussing India's current stance.

The situation is still developing. It's not concerning India, but rather the political landscape in Bangladesh. Let's give them the chance to resolve it themselves.

Michael Kugelman from the Wilson Center, a US-based research organization, thinks that Prime Minister Hasina stepping down and leaving the country is a situation that India views as very negative. India has always seen any other option besides Ms. Hasina and her party as a danger to their own interests.

According to Mr. Kugelman, Delhi is expected to contact Bangladesh's military to express its worries and expectations that its interests are considered in a temporary government.

Moreover, India will need to observe and wait anxiously. It might endorse democratic elections for the sake of stability, but it is not in favor of the BNP making a comeback - even if the party is currently weak and split. Delhi probably wouldn't object to an extended period of temporary governance for this purpose.

Ms. Hasina's abrupt decline surely would have surprised her supporters.

The daughter of the first president of Bangladesh and the female leader who served the longest in the world, Ms. Hasina governed her country for almost 15 years. During her time in power, she managed to drive one of the quickest-growing economies globally and significantly improve the quality of life in South Asia.

However, during her time in power, there were claims of people being forcefully taken away, unlawful killings, and suppression of those who opposed her. She and her political party, the Awami League, rejected these allegations, while her administration pointed fingers at opposition groups for inciting demonstrations.

In January, Ms Hasina secured her fourth consecutive term in a disputed election. The BNP chose to abstain from participating in the vote, and accusations of a manipulated election were made worse by the widespread detention of its members and followers.

There is a lot of bad feelings towards India in Bangladesh because India supports Ms Hasina's government, which some people see as meddling in their country's politics. Past conflicts and complaints of India going too far also play a role in creating this negative view.

Ali Riaz, a political expert from Bangladesh who is now a professor at Illinois State University, said to the BBC that it is not unexpected for India to stay quiet about this issue. He mentioned that India has been supporting the Hasina government for a long time, which has led to a decline in democracy in Bangladesh.

Backing Sheikh Hasina without question has shielded her from scrutiny over human rights violations. India has gained financially and views Ms. Hasina as the key to maintaining their dominance in the region.

In India, they view the Bangladeshi opposition and its allies as a threat due to their Islamic beliefs. Ms. Hasina took action against militants in her country who were against India and also allowed Indian trade routes to pass through Bangladesh to five states that share a border.

"It is important for India to support a peaceful, stable, and successful Bangladesh. India should make every effort to uphold these conditions. The main goal is to maintain peace and tranquility," said Harsh Vardhan Shringla, who previously served as India's foreign secretary and high commissioner to Bangladesh, in an interview with the BBC shortly before Ms. Hasina's resignation.

Right now, the circumstances are not clear. A high-ranking official informed the BBC that India doesn't have many choices at this moment. We must strengthen our border security. Any other actions could be seen as meddling.

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