London mayor election: The three big issues that could decide Khan’s fate

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People in England and Wales are going to vote in local elections this Thursday. There will be lots of councillors to choose from, as well as 12 elected metro mayors (which is a record number) - one of whom is the famous Mayor of London.

Sadiq Khan, who is currently in office, is aiming to extend his reign as the Mayor of London by winning the Labour party's nomination, while also confronting Susan Hall, the Conservative party's nominee. They are two of the 11 hopefuls, which includes Jeremy Cox from the Reform UK party, a political group with a contentious track record on the far-right spectrum.

While campaigning, Mr Khan has emphasized his achievements, such as expanding both rail and bus routes and maintaining fixed fares for London residents.

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The mayor of London has promised to implement new measures to address the persistent problems with high cost of living and housing in the city. Some of these plans include providing free school meals to every child and building around 40,000 new government-owned homes.

His rivals have attempted to set the boundaries in various locations. Most of the candidates are prioritizing alterations or elimination of the Ulez expansion implemented by Mr Khan, which has generated strong responses.

The upcoming mayoral election on Thursday is expected to pose several difficulties for the incumbent Labour mayor. Among these challenges are criticisms of his handling of knife crime and proposed alterations to the electoral system. The mayor has acknowledged the expected difficulty of this election.

Discover all the details on the three major concerns that have influenced the London mayoral race in this blog section.

Reform UK Takes Advantage As ULEZ Debate Rages On

The Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) of London is a region located within the city where drivers of non-compliant vehicles are charged a daily fee of £12.50. In August 2023, it was extended to encompass all boroughs of London, which has caused a lot of controversy and opposition that is still ongoing.

The Ulez was created with the intention of enhancing the air quality in the city. While opinions differ amongst researchers, specialists generally agree that it has been a successful ongoing initiative. According to the mayor's office, the program decreased harmful pollutants by approximately 50% in the initial year. However, other more cautious evaluations estimate a reduction of 15 to 20%.

Nevertheless, there are those who have voiced their opposition to the recent expansion, deeming it a move that will only add more expenses without resulting in a notable enhancement of the air quality in London. Moreover, this development will introduce a new fee to certain individuals residing within the M25, which comes at a time when people are already struggling with the high cost of living.

The problem has caused a significant split among London voters and was a key topic during the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election in July, which occurred when Boris Johnson resigned. Prior to the election, there was a lot of campaigning against the expansion in the region, and some of the Ulez cameras in the area were damaged or removed altogether.

Even though the policy is controlled at a regional level and cannot be reversed by the central government, the criticism that Conservative representative Steve Tuckwell made about the policy has been connected to his slight win.

After his winning the election, Mr. Tuckwell informed Sky News that it was primarily due to the referendum on Ulez.

The mayor's team is still resisting the problem. They are emphasizing that the majority of cars in outer London are already following Ulez standards, which is 85 percent. Moreover, in September, they debunked rumors of a possible pay-per-mile system being implemented in the city.

As the mayoral election approaches, the matter remains highly disputed.

Susan Hall, who is running for Mayor as a Conservative candidate, has promised to make the Ulez expansion her top priority to repeal if she is elected. Additionally, she has vowed to prevent the implementation of a pay-per-mile fee, despite the fact that Mayor Khan has declared he does not intend to introduce such a fee.

In the meantime, Jeremy Cox of Reform UK has taken a more extreme stance by stating his intention to do away with the entire policy, including inner London, and even issue refunds for all Ulez fees collected since the expansion in August.

The individual advocating for drivers has additionally announced their intention to eliminate the low-traffic neighborhoods in London. These neighborhoods are designed to divert traffic from specific zones and enhance the air quality and safety of pedestrians.

The creation of LTNs has triggered a lot of discussion among London locals, which has resulted in a split similar to that seen in the Ulez debate. The opponents claim that LTNs, which have been established for many years now, lead to increased traffic on alternate roads causing inconvenience to both commuters and locals.

A new investigation supported by the government revealed that Low Traffic Neighborhoods (LTNs) are generally effective and liked. These communities are under the jurisdiction of local authorities, which means the Mayor cannot eliminate them directly.

Rising Knife Crime In London – A Complex Issue

Leading up to the election, a lot of people who are running against the mayor have said that he hasn't been doing a good job of dealing with knife crime in the city, and that the number of incidents is increasing rapidly.

It's a fact that knife-related crimes have increased in London since Mr. Khan took office in 2016. The police have reported a significant rise in cases between 2015 and 2023. The numbers have doubled from 9,743 to 14,577 according to the Metropolitan police department.

In the last month of 2019, there were an alarming 15,462 instances of crimes committed utilizing knives, making it the highest number on record. However, since the outbreak of Covid, there has been a significant decrease in knife-related crimes. Over the past few years, these occurrences have shown a consistent upward trend.

The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, made negative comments about the mayor's performance in regards to crime. He claimed that London was the sole region in the country that failed to meet its police recruitment goals under Mr. Khan's leadership. Sunak blamed this on "Labour in power."

The mayor has responded to this critique by stating that he is facing the repercussions of years of Conservative budget cuts.

He stated that our attempt to compensate for the huge gap created by the deduction of funds by the administration is by allocating resources towards the development of young individuals, youth centers, extracurricular clubs, and guidance and support programs.

According to a recent study conducted by the well-regarded IFS, shutting down 70% of police stations in London from 2010 onwards has resulted in an 11% surge in crimes like murder and assault in adjacent areas. This report strengthens the argument put forth by supporters of increased police presence in communities.

While London continues to rank as one of the top four areas in England with a high number of knife-related crimes, it did not hold the top spot in 2023. In the previous year, the capital had a rate of 137 knife offenses per 100,000 people, placing it second behind West Midlands' rate of 167. The national average for knife-related offenses in England is 89.

Two Major Changes To The Voting System

In the year 2022, the UK government approved the Elections Act, which implemented significant adjustments to the electoral structure. One of the notable alterations is the modification in the method of counting votes during the mayoral elections in London.

In past years, people voted for their preferred candidates using a system referred to as the Supplementary Vote. This essentially involved selecting a first and second choice candidate. If, during the counting process, the first choice candidate was eliminated or the top two candidates ended up with less than 50 percent of the total votes, then the second choice candidate would be taken into consideration (only if they were within the top two candidates).

The latest voting system called 'First Past the Post' has been implemented where the voters need to select a single candidate. This system is similar to the one that we use for general elections. The candidate who receives the highest number of votes will ultimately win.

Mr. Khan won in both 2016 and 2021 but he didn't get 50% of first choice votes so he had to wait for the second round to win. However, he would have won even under the new system because he got more votes than his opponents who came in second place.

One of the significant changes coming from the Elections Act is the introduction of the debatable voter ID regulations, requiring individuals to provide a photo ID when casting their votes in the polling station on the day of the election.

The voter authority certificate, passports, and driving licenses are some of the ID forms that the government allows. Their intention is to reduce election fraud. However, there are critics who argue that such cases are infrequent in the UK, and the laws may unfairly prevent marginalised communities from voting.

Mr Khan has shared his worries regarding the recent alterations, stating that the Conservative party implemented them with the intention of increasing the chances of their own candidate winning.

The mayor is encouraging individuals who supported him as their second choice from the Lib Dem and Green parties in the last election to cast their vote solely for him this time around. He believes that the upcoming competition will be much closer.