Championship Predictions: 2023-24 December Update
Soccer December 27, 2023
As the 2023-24 season is halfway through and the table is starting to become clearer, the Opta supercomputer has released its most recent Championship predictions for teams that might get promoted or relegated.
Prior to the start of the 2023-24 EFL Championship season, we reviewed 10,000 simulations using the Opta supercomputer to determine which teams were most likely to be promoted, finish in the top six, or be relegated to the third tier. Now that we are more than one-third of the way into the season, with 288 matches of actual data being considered, what do the projections look like?
On July 31st, the Opta supercomputer attempted to forecast the unforeseeable by running 10,000 pre-season simulations. The outcome was quite surprising as only one of the 24 teams failed to win automatic promotion, while each and every team was relegated at least once. The start of the Championship season appeared to be quite unpredictable as Preston North End emerged as the league leaders at the first international break while Middlesbrough found themselves at the bottom after five games. However, Leicester and Ipswich Town finally took control of their fate.
After 24 matchdays in the 2023-24 season, we have a better understanding of how each team is performing and their likelihood of winning or losing. Below, we summarize the crucial outcomes of the Opta supercomputer Championship 2023-24 simulations, as of 29 December, before the last round of matches.
"Championship Promotions: Who's Next?"
Let us be realistic. Leicester City has already secured their promotion to the Premier League. Even though the Opta supercomputer has not officially announced it as of now, Leicester City has finished in the top two spots in almost all simulations- 98.6% to be exact. It is an acknowledged fact, and everyone is aware of it. It's time to get ready to be back in the Premier League.
Leicester City has an exciting prospect in front of them: reaching 100 points in the 2023-24 season. According to the Opta supercomputer, there is a chance that they could achieve an average of 101.7 points. If they do reach this mark, they would join the ranks of Sunderland, Fulham, Reading, Newcastle, Leicester (in 2013-14) and Burnley (last season) as the seventh second-tier team to reach 100 points. Enzo Maresca’s side has also won the league title in 91.3% of the supercomputer's simulations.
On Boxing Day, Ipswich played against the top team and tied 1-1, which was a great result, especially because they scored the equalizer in added time. However, this is the third league game in a row where they haven't won. Since December 16, Kieran McKenna's team hasn't been doing well, and they've only earned two points in three matches, including a humiliating 4-0 loss to Leeds United on December 23. According to the current projections from Opta, Ipswich still has a 57.7% chance of getting automatic promotion. But teams like Southampton and Leeds are also strong and could pose a threat.
On Boxing Day, Leeds experienced a disappointing loss of 2-1 against Preston, following their impressive victory over Ipswich which seemed to indicate their chances of moving up to the top two rankings. According to simulations, they now only finish in the top two spots in 21.6% of scenarios, which is a decrease from the 26.3% we observed back in mid-November after 16 matches were played.
Southampton is the most successful team in the given timeframe. According to the Opta supercomputer, from Matchday 16 to present, their chances of finishing in the top-two have increased from 8.8% to 20.7%. In the last eight matchdays, only Leicester has won more points than Southampton, with both teams being the only undefeated ones in that time. Saints have accumulated 18 points in the eight matchdays, which is four more than both Leeds and Ipswich, who have each accumulated 14 points.
Proposing that these four clubs will finish in the top four by the end of the season isn't a preposterous idea. This is because there is currently a difference of six points between Leeds, who is in fourth place, and West Brom, currently in fifth place. As a result, it appears that the competition for the last two play-off positions in fifth and sixth place will be another fascinating fight.
The Opta supercomputer predicted that West Brom would be in the top six in nearly 63% of their recent simulations. Coventry, Sunderland, Hull, and Watford were also possible contenders, but they all had less than a 26% chance of success.
During the November international break, Sunderland's likelihood of winning was estimated to be at 53.0%, but their recent track record has caused that number to plummet to 25.6%. They have managed to earn 10 points over the course of eight games since then, including three in their victory against Hull on Boxing Day. Michael Beale has taken charge of the team after Tony Mowbray's departure, so we will have to wait and see how their new head coach will affect their performance.
Championship Relegation: Who's Next?
When we last checked the Opta supercomputer estimates after 16 games, Rotherham had only managed to score 5 Championship points. This means that they have gone from being considered the third most likely team to be relegated to League One (with a 74.6% chance), to being the top favourite for relegation (now with a 93.6% chance). This change could have been much worse if they had not managed to defeat Middlesbrough on Boxing Day.
Since Danny Röhl took over as manager, Sheffield Wednesday has shown some improvement. However, it's not surprising considering they only won three points in 11 games before he arrived. The team has gained 13 points in 13 games under the new coach, which is more than what QPR (12), Millwall (11), Rotherham (10), and Birmingham City (9) have accumulated between 21 October and now. Based on current simulations, Wednesday's chances of being relegated from the Championship are at 91.9%.
According to the Opta supercomputer, QPR was considered the most likely team to be relegated at the beginning of the season with a 62.0% chance. After analyzing data from 24 matchdays, the probability of their relegation increased slightly to 64.5%, but they have fallen behind Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday. However, their chances of being relegated have decreased since the last update on November 22nd, where it was recorded at 83.3%.
Last season didn't end well for QPR with Gareth Ainsworth as their coach. After he was appointed in February, they only won a few points, which was the second fewest in the Championship. By the time Ainsworth was sacked on October 28th, they were near the bottom with only eight points after playing 14 games and were six points from being safe. However, things have gotten better recently with the team earning 12 points in 10 games. Unfortunately, they've only earned one point in the last four matches, and they've lost three games in a row. Their next game is against Ipswich Town, and losing Ilias Chair to the AFCON with Morocco during most of January will make things worse for QPR.
At the start of the 2023-24 season, Plymouth was predicted to have a 33.8% chance of being relegated, placing them at second to last. However, after playing 24 games over a period of four months, they have managed to climb up eight points above the relegation zone. Only 4.6% of supercomputer simulations project that they will be relegated. However, the loss of manager Steven Schumacher to Stoke City could potentially affect their performance.
We have conducted 10,000 simulations of the 2023-24 Championship season and have calculated the average number of points each club earns. With this data, we can rank the teams based on their performance. The results, generated by the Opta supercomputer on December 27th, are as follows:
Leicester City is on top of the list with an average of 101.7 points, followed by Ipswich Town with 89.4 points. In third place is Southampton with 84.0 points and in fourth place is Leeds United with 83.9 points. West Brom is in fifth place with 73.8 points and Sunderland is in sixth place with 68.4 points. Coventry City is in seventh place with 67.9 points and Middlesbrough is in eighth place with 67.6 points. Hull City is in ninth place with 67.6 points, while Watford is in tenth place with 66.0 points. Norwich City is in eleventh place with 64.8 points, followed by Bristol City in twelfth place with 64.6 points. Preston North End is in thirteenth place with 62.3 points and Cardiff City is in fourteenth place with 62.0 points. Blackburn Rovers is in fifteenth place with 60.3 points and Swansea City is in sixteenth place with 59.0 points. Plymouth Argyle is in seventeenth place with 54.7 points and Stoke City is in eighteenth place with 53.2 points. Millwall is in nineteenth place with 53.1 points and Birmingham City is in twentieth place with 52.6 points. Huddersfield Town is in twenty-first place with 50.3 points, Queens Park Rangers is in twenty-second place with 43.6 points, Sheffield Wednesday is in twenty-third place with 37.7 points and Rotherham United is in twenty-fourth place with 37.2 points.
Opta's Supercomputer Model: How It Works?
The League Prediction model created by Opta predicts the chances of teams finishing in various positions in the competition. This provides insight into how well a team will fare in the season, including their probability of being relegated or winning the championship.
In order to determine the possible outcome of a game (whether it will end in a win, draw or loss), the model utilizes the odds from the betting market as well as Opta Power Rankings. These odds and rankings are derived from past and present team performances.
In order to make predictions, the model takes into account the likelihood of match outcomes and factors in the strength of opposing teams. It then proceeds to run simulations of the remaining fixtures numerous times, keeping track of the results. By analyzing the frequency with which different teams end up in various league positions across all of these simulations, the model generates our final predictions.
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