Nigel Farage pledges to run for PM in 2029 as Reform manifesto slated by economists

Reform manifesto

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Nigel Farage has positioned himself strongly on Rishi Sunak's property by presenting a set of policies that aim to gain the support of dissatisfied Conservative followers. He made an unbelievable prophecy that he will hold the position of prime minister following the 2029 election.

Reform manifesto - Figure 1
Photo The Independent

Reform UK has recently introduced their "contract with the people". This particular document is aimed towards voters who lean more towards the right-wing side of politics. The writer of this document is a well-known supporter of Brexit. Some of the policies included in this document are halting non-essential immigration, eliminating net zero targets, and withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

The promises that were considered controversial from one candidate caused another to withdraw after making remarks in the past that encouraged voting for the BNP. Furthermore, another candidate referred to Hitler as "brilliant."

Jack Aaron, who is running against Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, wrote online messages in which he expressed admiration for Hitler’s “brilliant strategies”, and called Syrian President Bashar-al Assad “kind-hearted”.

Although those on the political right were pleased with the list of promises by Reform UK, economists and professionals criticized it for its unrealistic economic proposals and hazardous opposition to achieving net zero carbon emissions.

According to Sam Fankhauser, who is an expert in climate economics and policy at the University of Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Reform UK's goal is to make the UK a place with a lot of carbon emissions while the rest of the world is reducing them. This would result in a failure to take advantage of technological advancements and growth opportunities in the 21st century. However, research indicates that by investing as little as £6-8 billion each year, the UK can achieve its goal of being carbon neutral by 2030, which is a small cost compared to the benefits of preserving our planet.

In the meantime, the IFS, which is an independent organization, came to the conclusion that the calculations done by Reform are inaccurate.

The proposed measures by the IFS party, particularly the £50bn spending cut proposal targeting "wasteful Government spending," won't yield the predicted savings, according to Carl Emmerson, the party's deputy director. Additionally, the tax cut proposals could cost tens of billions more than anticipated.

He stated: "Despite the excessively hopeful speculations about the extent to which the economic progress would escalate, the figures in this manifesto do not compute. Although Reform's manifesto establishes a definite precedence, a governing body could only execute some portions of this plan, or would have to uncover alternative methods to aid in financing it, which would result in casualties that are unspecified."

Reform manifesto - Figure 2
Photo The Independent

The influence of Mr. Farage in the election was reiterated when the Redfield and Wilton poll revealed that Reform UK and the Conservatives were neck and neck at 18 percent, lagging behind Labour's 43 percent.

The anti-Brexit campaign group, Best for Britain, stated that if the people voted tactically, a potential victory for Labour in Clacton could put a stop to Mr. Farage's plans.

Mr. Farage's opening statement at the event in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales suggests that the Reform policy document lacks credibility as a serious plan for government. He openly acknowledged that winning was not a realistic expectation, indicating a lack of confidence in the proposed solutions outlined in the document.

Instead, he declared that the strategies were subjects that his political group intended to chase in his own chosen position as the "opposer of Labour" as a component of an initiative to guarantee his position as the head of the government following the 2029 election.

Mr. Farage strongly criticized the increasing tax load and highlighted the proposal for tax reductions worth £90 billion annually, which would benefit voters and reduce taxes for 7 million earners entirely.

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The unveiling of the manifesto in southern Wales happened shortly after Reform outnumbered the Conservatives in a recent survey. Despite this, it is predicted that Reform will only secure one position, which will be occupied by Mr. Farage in Clacton. However, the party could potentially prevent the Conservatives from gaining a majority in numerous constituencies throughout the nation.

Showing growing anxiety about Reform's growing popularity, a representative from the Conservative Party reacted to the release of their manifesto by cautioning against voting for Reform, saying that it could lead to an unchecked Labour majority.

They stated: "This would give Keir Starmer unrestricted authority to increase your taxes, neglect addressing unlawful immigration, as well as potentially rejoin the EU, without any means to prevent his actions."

Reform manifesto - Figure 3
Photo The Independent

The Conservatives cautioned that if the Labour party were to take office, they would maintain control for an entire era.

According to Reform's manifesto, the implementation of their promises would require a financial investment of £141 billion. However, to finance these pledges, the organization provided proposals that would lead to savings amounting to £146 billion.

As per the observation of tax specialist Dan Neidle, Reform's tax cuts amount to a minimum of £38 billion, which is roughly twice the amount of unfunded cost incurred by Liz Truss's failed mini budget in 2022.

However, Mr. Farage affirmed that the record demonstrated "revolutionary, innovative, and non-traditional thinking."

According to him, the present Labour and Conservative parties are quite similar and it's unlikely that they'll offer anything unique or distinct.

Do you consider this as a brand-new and innovative approach towards economics? Indeed. Is it a progressive and novel approach towards modifying the constitution? Absolutely. Will it bring a major transformation in the way our educational system currently nurtures our young ones? Definitely.

Furthermore, indicating that Mr Farage's proposals are attractive to typical Conservative supporters, the Taxpayers' Alliance - a group that traditionally supports the Conservative party - expressed that the manifesto would provide genuine respite for British citizens.

Mr. Farage responded to the criticism regarding the expense of the package by stating that the party would only be advocating for those measures during a five-year period, acting as the opposing voice to a presumed Labour government.

The manifesto delved into the culture wars and stated that there will be a ban on "transgender ideology" in schools. It was also mentioned that "gender questioning, social transitioning and pronoun swapping" will not be allowed.

The article suggested a curriculum that promotes patriotism and incorporates lessons on Britain's involvement in slavery and imperialism, in addition to non-European events to maintain a fair and objective approach.

The Reform party made a commitment to declare St George's Day and St David's Day as official holidays. They also promised to introduce a Free Speech Bill that would put an end to leftist bias and politically correct ways of thinking. In addition, they pledged to do away with the TV licence that finances the BBC and to expedite the granting of oil and gas licences in the North Sea.

According to Mr. Farage, Reform aims to make the tax system in the United Kingdom less complicated. Currently, the system fills more than 21,000 pages, while in Hong Kong, it is only 500 pages long.

The political group is suggesting an increase to the lowest amount of money a business can earn, to a total of £100,000. Additionally, they aim to decrease the highest tax rate for companies from 25% to 15% over the course of three years. Their claim is that these changes would release approximately 1.2 million enterprises from tax obligations.

In other areas, it commits to eliminating business rates for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by implementing an "online delivery tax" at a rate of 4% specifically for larger corporations.

The political group led by Mr. Farage has promised to decrease the tax on fuel by 20p for each liter, eliminate the Value-Added Tax imposed on energy bills, get rid of the levy on sales below £750,000 and dismiss the income tax for individuals earning below £20,000.

Additionally, the report indicates that 98% of all estates would no longer be subject to inheritance tax.

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