What every NBA team can do to win (or lose) more games than projected
Kevin Pelton, a senior writer for ESPN, posted an article on October 4, 2024, at 1:00 PM.
I've updated my statistical predictions for all 30 NBA teams following the major trade that brought Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks. In return, the Minnesota Timberwolves received Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle. These projections aim to illustrate a possible scenario for how the season might unfold.
In reality, there are many situations that can enable a team to exceed its expected performance. These could include players staying healthy, making progress in their skills, or executing trades. Let’s explore one potential scenario for each NBA team and examine how it could enhance their forecasts, but with a unique angle.
As we approach what is anticipated to be an exciting NBA draft, not all teams aim to achieve more victories than expected. Franchises in the process of rebuilding, such as the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, would actually prefer to have fewer wins to improve their chances in the lottery. Therefore, we’ll examine how reducing the playing time of their top players could assist them in reaching that objective.
Keeping that in consideration, let's explore how each team might perform either better or, in some instances, not as well as anticipated.
Navigate to: ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Situation: Risacher shows rapid improvement Outcome: 34.2 victories (+2.3)
Drafting young players is often the quickest route to success, a point I emphasized in my initial analysis of the Hawks. But what if this year's top pick, Zaccharie Risacher, exceeds expectations? To explore this possibility, I looked at Patrick Williams' rookie year as an example of how Risacher could step in as an effective, low-usage player who excels in three-point shooting and defense from the start. If he performs at that level, it could help Atlanta gain another two victories.
Situation: Maintain the top-rated offense in the NBA Outcome: 54.3 victories (+1.9)
Despite the injury that will keep starting center Kristaps Porzingis out until December, I was taken aback to see the Celtics predicted to rank only fourth in offensive efficiency, especially after achieving the highest rating in NBA history last season. If we elevate Boston to the top spot in the league, it would give the defending champions the highest expectations of any team.
Situation: Initiating trades Outcome: 35.1 victories (-1.8)
I'm surprised this number isn't higher, but reallocating playing time among Nic Claxton, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cameron Johnson, and Dennis Schroder takes a toll on Brooklyn's win total. One reason it isn't a bigger drop is that the Nets don't have any draft picks for 2024 on the team. Their lone rookie, undrafted guard Yongxi Cui, doesn't have a forecast for performance. In reality, if the Nets decided to overhaul their roster, they would likely have to bring in players from the G League, who would likely perform even worse to take over those minutes.
Situation: If LaMelo Ball remains injury-free, the outcome would be 31.4 victories, an increase of 1.9 wins.
The Hornets might benefit from taking a different approach, but I wanted to highlight how LaMelo Ball's health could influence their performance. He’s expected to participate in about 60 games this season, especially considering he only played a total of 58 games over the last two years. If we increase that to 76 games, which is the highest number I’ve seen in my analysis—similar to the 75 games he played in the 2021-22 season—it could add nearly two wins to the team's overall record.
Situation: Trading Zach LaVine Outcome: 29.9 victories (a decrease of 1.9)
If the Bulls decided to undergo a complete rebuild by trading LaVine for expiring contracts and reallocating those playing time across their team, I would predict they would end up with fewer than 30 wins, placing them in the bottom five teams overall. This strategy would improve Chicago's chances of retaining their first-round draft pick next year, as it would go to San Antonio if they finish outside the top 10.
Situation: Evan Mobley secures the Defensive Player of the Year award Outcome: 51.3 victories (+0.7)
The truth is, it's challenging to boost the Cavaliers' forecast significantly since they're already ranked second in the Eastern Conference. In this context, I've assigned Mobley the top defensive rating among all seasoned players, indicating he's made notable strides to secure the Defensive Player of the Year title after finishing third in the voting last season. This improvement contributes nearly an additional win to Cleveland's overall record.
Situation: Cade Cunningham takes his game to the next level Outcome: 30.8 victories (+2.0)
Even though Cunningham had a strong season last year, with impressive averages of 22.7 points and 7.5 assists per game, it didn't quite measure up to the breakout performance we had anticipated from him as the top pick in 2021. If he can replicate the success of Anthony Edwards, who was selected first overall the year before, it could lead to a significant improvement for the Pistons—potentially adding two wins if Cunningham achieves Edwards' offensive rating from last season.
Situation: Establish the top scoring team in the league Outcome: 49.2 victories (+2.5)
The Pacers have a solid offensive outlook, but it's not quite on par with the top offense in the NBA that we saw prior to Tyrese Haliburton's hamstring injury back in January. However, if we pair the strongest offensive forecast for any team with an enhanced defense, Indiana's win expectation could exceed 49.
Situation: Kel'el Ware makes an immediate impact. Outcome: 46.1 victories (+1.2)
In my opinion, the standout newcomer at the NBA summer league in Las Vegas was the No. 15 draft pick from this year, who surpassed expectations with ease. If we consider Ware's performance to be on par with that of Dereck Lively II, the Mavericks center who had a solid rookie season last year, it could greatly benefit Miami. Even if he plays a limited role backing up All-Star Bam Adebayo, his contribution could potentially improve Miami's team outlook by more than a win.
Situation: Damian Lillard returns as one of the top five offensive players. Outcome: 48.3 wins (an increase of 1.6).
Lillard's offensive forecast is far from mediocre, which is why this situation doesn’t have a larger effect. He’s anticipated to rank as the 14th-best offensive player in the league. However, it’s quite feasible for Lillard to become a top-five offensive player after a year playing in Milwaukee. He achieved this level of performance effortlessly in his last season with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Situation: Jalen Brunson makes the All-NBA first team again Outcome: 47.5 victories (+2.1)
Brunson's rise to potentially being one of the top five players in the NBA reached an impressive peak, making it understandable that his future performance might see some decline compared to last season. If he can maintain the level of play he showcased last year, it could boost the Knicks' chances by over two additional wins.
KAT: The Knicks are creating something remarkable.
Karl-Anthony Towns addressed the press and praised Jalen Brunson and the Knicks for fostering a unique atmosphere at Madison Square Garden.
Situation: Paolo Banchero makes significant progress Outcome: 45.4 victories (+1.9)
The Magic are expected to have one of the best defenses in the league, ranking in the top three after finishing third last year and acquiring Kentavious Caldwell-Pope during free agency. To enhance their offense, it would be helpful for Banchero to further develop into a key player, especially after earning All-Star recognition last season. If he can improve his scoring efficiency slightly, it could translate to almost two additional wins for Orlando.
Situation: Paul George has another consistent season Outcome: 47.1 victories (+1.9)
George's forecast is affected by a few key aspects: his age (34) and the impact of players switching teams. If we consider that George could replicate his offensive output from the 2023-24 season, it would boost Philadelphia's projected wins by almost two.
Situation: Bruce Brown Jr. was traded just before the deadline. Outcome: 32.6 victories, a drop of 1.3 wins.
While the Raptors are expected to compete for a play-in position, they may be leaning towards boosting their chances in the lottery since they sent their own lottery pick to the Spurs last year. That pick was used to select Rob Dillingham, whose rights were later traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves. A straightforward method for Toronto to slide down the standings would be to trade Brown, who is entering the last year of his contract, and instead focus on giving playing time to their first-round pick, Ja'Kobe Walter. This adjustment could push the Raptors into the lower tier of the league standings and bring them closer to the bottom five.
Situation: Jordan Poole experiences another disappointing season Outcome: 21.8 wins (a decrease of 2.3)
The Wizards have the lowest expected wins in the NBA, so it seems like they can't get much worse. But Poole’s estimated performance reflects his two solid seasons with Golden State before being traded to Washington, where he faced challenges. If he performs at the same level as last season, Washington's win forecast could fall by more than two games, edging it closer to the 20.5 over/under line set by ESPN BET.
Situation: Post-All-Star defensive performance is consistent Result: 50.7 victories (an increase of 1.0)
The Mavericks are projected to have the second-best offense in the league, but their defense is expected to perform just below the league average following the loss of forward Derrick Jones Jr. If Dallas can match their defensive performance from after last year's All-Star break, when they ranked 13th, it could lead to an expectation of more than 50 wins for the season.
Situation: Christian Braun joins the KCP team Outcome: 48.9 victories (an increase of 1.5)
In this case, I provided an estimate for Braun based on what Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's projection might have looked like if he had chosen to stay with the Nuggets. This adjustment contributes an additional one and a half wins to Denver's overall tally. In reality, keeping Caldwell-Pope would likely boost the Nuggets' outlook even further since Braun would remain in the lineup ahead of less qualified substitutes.
Situation: Stephen Curry challenges the effects of aging Outcome: 47.7 victories (+2.9)
To be honest, this goes beyond just getting older. My estimates adjust exceptional players' performances to align more closely with the average, meaning that even during Curry's peak, he wouldn't have been expected to remain as impressive as he was the year before. However, if Curry were to replicate his offensive rating from the 2023-24 season, it would boost the Warriors' win prediction by almost three games.
Situation: Young players show progress in their defensive skills Outcome: 43.9 victories (+3.5)
Due in large part to Houston's poor defensive performance over the past two seasons, the recent lottery selections Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. have low expectations when it comes to their defensive abilities. Last season, they ranked second and third in terms of minutes played on a defense that was above average. If they can maintain that level of performance, it could boost the Rockets' defensive ranking from 13th to seventh, which would translate to an increase of 3.5 wins in the standings.
Situation: Kawhi Leonard participates in 68 matches Outcome: 38 victories (+1.7 additional wins)
Due to Leonard's past injuries, he is expected to play around 54 games this season. This estimate appears justified since he is currently dealing with knee inflammation that prevented him from participating in the 2024 playoffs and kept him off the U.S. Olympic team. If Leonard were to reach the same numbers as last season—68 games and 2,330 minutes—taking playing time away from bench players Kobe Brown and Amir Coffey, it could boost the Clippers' wins by almost two on average. This projection could be on the cautious side, especially after Paul George's exit from the team.
Situation: Anthony Davis participates in 76 games Outcome: 42.1 victories (an increase of 1.4)
Davis is expected to play 68 games, which is certainly more than before, but it still falls short of the number of games and minutes he logged in the 2023-24 season, during which he had 2,700 minutes—his highest since the 2017-18 season. It's important to mention that even if Davis performs at a similar level as last year, it likely won’t be enough for the Lakers to reach last season’s 47 wins. This is mainly due to their point differential of +0.6 points per game, which typically corresponds to around 42 to 43 wins.
Stephen A. is concerned about LeBron and the Lakers' possibilities of winning the championship.
Stephen A. Smith shares his doubts about whether LeBron James still has what it takes to lead the Lakers into championship contention this season.
Situation: Jaren Jackson Jr. takes home the Defensive Player of the Year award Outcome: 52.2 victories (+1.1)
Following a standout 2022-23 season where he averaged three blocks per game and earned Defensive Player of the Year, Jackson faced an unexpected decline last season, with his block rate falling sharply. This drop affected his defensive potential, but let’s consider it was just an anomaly due to the constant changes in his teammates. If we assign Jackson the league's top defensive potential, it enhances the Grizzlies' already optimistic win predictions by an additional game.
Situation: Maintain the highest defense in the NBA Outcome: 46.9 victories (+4.2)
The straightforward reason for the Timberwolves' low initial ranking is that they are expected to come in ninth for defensive performance, especially after finishing first in the league last year. My forecasts consider data from several seasons, including the 2022-23 season, where Minnesota ranked 10th defensively. However, their defensive success last season wasn't just a coincidence, and bringing in guard Donte DiVincenzo is likely to enhance their defense on the perimeter. If we elevate Minnesota's defensive rating, it could potentially lead to an extra four wins for the team.
Hypothetical Situation: If Zion Williamson participates in 70 games, the outcome would be 43.1 victories, which is an increase of 1.5 wins.
After 50 games, Williamson has the lowest projection possible, except for those who were already injured. If he can participate in 70 games like he did last season, it could help the Pelicans secure a spot in the top eight, although they'd still trail behind last year's 49-win status due to their struggling center position. Improving their options at center could help New Orleans catch up to that level of performance.
Situation: Chet Holmgren remains injury-free Outcome: 54.6 victories (+0.9)
After sitting out his entire first NBA season because of a Lisfranc injury, Holmgren is expected to play 67 games, having participated in all 82 during the 2023-24 season. If we take a middle ground and estimate that Holmgren will play a maximum of 76 games, it significantly boosts Oklahoma City's prospects—already the strongest in the league—by almost an additional win.
Situation: Kevin Durant plays a key role in powering one of the best offensive teams. Outcome: 46.9 victories (+1.5).
With such exceptional talent on the team and solid shooting from supporting players, it was disappointing for the Phoenix Suns to end up 10th in offensive rating last season. This underperformance likely contributed to the decision to replace Frank Vogel as head coach. Now, Mike Budenholzer steps in—he previously led the Bucks from ninth in offensive rating before he arrived to three top-five finishes in the following four years. Simply achieving a spot in the top five could significantly boost the Suns' performance, potentially adding an extra win and a half to their record.
Situation: Reduced time for initial players Outcome: 31.9 victories (-0.9)
Last season, Jerami Grant was the standout player for a Blazers team plagued by injuries, logging 1,830 minutes on the court. Given this context, it may be unrealistic to expect five players from Portland—Grant, Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons—to each play over 2,000 minutes this year. If we were to reduce the veterans' playing time by 300 minutes each and allocate that time to younger bench players, the team's overall win projection would decrease by almost a full game.
Situation: DeMar DeRozan has a season similar to the previous one Outcome: 51.5 victories (+2.1)
Similar to Paul George during his time in Philadelphia, DeRozan's expectations are diminishing as he gets older and transitions to a new team. This seems especially true since his role will significantly shift with the presence of De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. However, if DeRozan can replicate his performance from his days with the Chicago Bulls, it could boost the Sacramento team's already promising outlook by more than two wins.
Situation: Stephon Castle enhances his long-range shooting skills. Outcome: 36.3 victories (+2.8).
The Spurs' No. 4 draft pick this June is expected to be an important contributor right from the start, making his growth a significant factor in the team's overall success. During his one season at UConn, Castle only made 27% of his 3-point attempts, indicating he will need to adapt his shooting to the NBA level. I've looked at Cason Wallace's rookie offensive performance with the Oklahoma City Thunder as a comparison for Castle's potential, as Wallace improved from shooting 35% at Kentucky to 42% in the NBA. If Castle can achieve similar results, it could boost San Antonio's win total by nearly three games.
Context: Limiting Lauri Markkanen's impact Outcome: 27.9 wins (decrease of 1.3)
Currently, the Jazz have the lowest forecast among all Western teams, which means they might not have to fall in the rankings after the trade deadline as they have in previous years. However, if they limit Lauri Markkanen to the same playing time he had last season—1,820 minutes—and share those minutes between second-year player Taylor Hendricks and newcomers Kyle Filipowski and Cody Williams, it could lead Utah to move from the fourth-lowest overall prediction to the second-lowest. This would put them in a better position for the lottery.
