Keir Starmer Could Become An Even More Important Ally For Emmanuel Macron

On the 9th of June, Emmanuel Macron shared information about the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Reading time: 5 minutes. Date: June 16th. The blog post will be rephrased in simplified English: This post will take you around 5 minutes to read. The date is June 16th.

A surprise election in France may heighten the significance of a robust alliance between the upcoming UK General Election's victor, predicted to be Keir Starmer of the Labour party, and French President Emmanuel Macron. A former ambassador to Paris has highlighted this potential importance.

Macron has announced an impromptu vote for the French parliament to be conducted this month, in light of the recent European Parliament elections which saw significant progress by the far-right political party in France called National Rally (RN). The RN party got a vote share of 31.4% and similar parties on the far-right are also getting increasing support all over the continent.

The leader of the Renaissance party in France, who is a proponent of liberal centrist policies, has taken a major risk. The latest survey following the election announcement reveals that the RN party has the potential to secure as many as 265 seats in the upcoming elections. In contrast, support for Macron's party is anticipated to decrease by half, going from 250 to 125 seats.

If the RN wins the French elections, the political system in France would require Macron to collaborate with a prime minister from the far-right party. Lord Ricketts, who used to work as a high-ranking diplomat, believes that this situation would put the French President in an uneasy and challenging predicament domestically. Hence, Macron's connection with whoever becomes the occupant of 10 Downing Street would become even more significant.

According to Ricketts, a former British Ambassador to France, the UK Prime Minister could become a significant partner on the world stage if Macron is confronted with this difficult political situation in France. If this happens, Macron may encounter significant opposition from right-wing groups in his home country.

According to Ricketts, who previously worked as the UK's National Security Advisor and Permanent Secretary in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the French president has extensive authority over foreign policy, defense, and national security. Therefore, if the president were to work alongside a far-right prime minister, it would result in what is referred to as a "cohabitation" and would present challenges and struggles in domestic policy.

I don't believe it would significantly impact France's overseas strategies... While Macron remains in power, there will be a considerably influential spokesperson with constitutional authority striving to enhance relationships, reinforce defense ties, and collaborate on international policies.

Ricketts mentioned that he witnessed King Charles and Macron at the D-Day commemoration in Normandy the previous week. He commented that their rapport seemed strong, which will prove advantageous during a period of political instability in France.

If, as various opinion polls have indicated, Labour led by Starmer manages to acquire a parliamentary majority at the General Election on 4th July, the new foreign secretary David Lammy may prioritize the UK's connection with France.

Ricketts stated that in the case of a National Rally government on the far-right collaborating with Macron, there wouldn't be much likelihood of a friendly relationship between that government and a newly elected Labour Party in the United Kingdom.

I suggest prioritizing the development and maintenance of connections with Macron.

The blog states that Lammy has been making efforts to establish relationships with France's top political figures, especially those who share a bond with Macron, including Renaissance member of parliament Benjamin Haddad, according to PoliticsHome.

Lammy is reportedly keen on restoring the UK's historical links with France, with the latest release of the Labour manifesto emphasising the significance of "strength" and solid partnerships. He is said to be studying the work of French expert Michel Duclos, a diplomat who has written extensively about the Western world's need to forge greater connections with countries in the 'Global South'. Duclos is also a proponent of upholding international legal responsibilities in order to maintain global peace and stability.

In the coming weeks, if Labour wins the election, they will have a packed schedule. They will only have a weekend to rest after the election before flying to Washington DC for a NATO Summit. Following that, they will host a meeting of the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace in Oxford during the following week.

According to Ricketts, becoming the Prime Minister will give him a chance to show his personality and leadership style. By the end of July, the new Prime Minister will have multiple occasions to introduce himself without having to make tough decisions about policies.

Ricketts mentioned that there could be a shift in Europe's general sentiment since far-right backing is increasing and Donald Trump may be re-elected as US president in the fall.

This would be a significant occasion. The primary effect of Trump arriving would be to greatly encourage Britain to align itself more closely with its European counterparts, particularly in regards to defense and security.

A recent YouGov survey on voting intentions in the UK has shown that the Reform UK party is now leading the Conservatives by one point. However, Ricketts has expressed skepticism about the possibility of a right-wing shift in the UK, despite its emergence in Europe and the US.

The Conservative Party's right-wing populism was evident during Boris Johnson's tenure as Prime Minister. It remains to be seen how the elections will pan out, but it seems like the UK citizens are shifting away from a government that favors a populist approach. This trend suggests that they may not be inclined towards a similar experience in the future.

The situation in Poland is similar, as there has been a shift in the political climate with the election of the Donald Tusk government following years of a right-wing populist government. This indicates that the popular sentiment is quite fluid and could change in different directions.

"Currently, populism is gaining traction in France and Germany, while Italy has already embraced it. However, Poland and possibly the UK seem to be moving in the opposite direction, hence the overall situation is rather varied."

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