Euro 2024 goals from long distance buck the trend and the football has been so much better for it
After the opening set of matches in Euro 2024, the excitement has been top-notch. The primary contributor to this is the abundance of goals scored from far distances. A total of eleven such goals have been scored that were launched outside the penalty area.
The scoring started with Germany's first match, where two of their five goals were scored from afar. This gave a good indication of what was to come. Romania also managed to score a couple of goals against Ukraine, with a fantastic early contender for the best goal of the tournament from Nicolae Stanciu.
Mert Muldur made an incredible volley for Turkey against Georgia on Tuesday which was very impressive, even though it didn't count towards the score since it was just inside the area. However, the next two goals by Arda Guller were even more remarkable, especially the way he curled the ball into the net.
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In the Premier League, long-term objectives are becoming increasingly uncommon.
In the Premier League season of 2023/24, mere 11.5 percent of all goals were scored from a distance exceeding the penalty box. This rate is the smallest since records have been kept from 2010/11.
This is highly uncommon. In Euro 2016, there were only 17 goals scored outside the penalty box and that number only increased to 19 in Euro 2020. However, with 51 matches played in those tournaments, things took a curious turn. In Euro 2024, there have been a total of 11 goals scored outside the penalty box so far, and this has happened in just 12 matches.
According to UEFA's evaluation of the previous European Championship, it appears that teams are more likely to attempt to move the ball into strategic areas on the field that have a higher chance of scoring, as opposed to taking a risky shot from afar with a low probability of success.
It's fascinating because it's different. In the past, goal of the month videos would often showcase a series of powerful shots from far away. Nowadays, the focus is on more complex plays. However, this video goes against the current trend.
The increase in analytics and popularity of expected-goals data has resulted in a reduction of shots taken outside the penalty area. It's now widely recognized that these types of shots are less likely to result in goals.
Therefore, coaches have been discouraging it more and more. This is compounded by a preference for maintaining possession and opting for passes rather than taking shots. Consequently, the proportion of shots taken from beyond the box has dwindled.
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The Premier League recently released data indicating that the most recent season yielded an all-time low percentage of long-distance shots. This trend has been increasingly noticeable over the last ten years, with the proportion of shots outside of the penalty area falling from 44.9% to just 32.8%.
The coaching is causing the player to leave the game.
What makes Euro 2024 stand out? Well, if we want to be a bit mundane, the reason might just be the amount of data we have so far. It's likely that things will balance out as the tournament goes on. However, what's interesting is that a huge chunk of shots (39.2%) have been taken from outside the penalty area. A trend is definitely emerging here!
There are two notions that I think about, one linked to the mind and the other to strategy.
To begin with, there is a psychological reason behind the strong emotions players feel when representing their countries at a major tournament. The feeling of pride they experience is unique and cannot be compared to any other. For many players, the act of visualizing themselves playing at the tournament has been a major aspect of their preparation, and they have been looking forward to it for a long time, maybe even years.
It's totally understandable why they might see an open space and think that it's their time to shine - they've probably been dreaming of this moment for ages, hoping to become a hero for their country. So when that chance finally presents itself, they don't want to hesitate or miss out.
Maybe the strategic reasoning is more convincing since it emphasizes another crucial distinction between the trend in club soccer and the actuality of the global sport. Nowadays, club football is so heavily guided by coaches that unpredictable choices are not accepted.
More and more, the emphasis is on predetermined strategies for the last part of the field, created by the top coaches in the world. This style of soccer has transformed the greatest players on the planet into machines that can predict the locations of all their teammates without even glancing.
The world of international soccer can be quite unpredictable. The team dynamics are not always well-established, and there may not always be a clear passing option. Additionally, unlike in club soccer, there may not be a strict coach on the sidelines ready to loudly correct players' mistakes.
Many people believe that club football is the most important level of the sport, with the UEFA Champions League being the top competition. However, is it the most enjoyable and impressive? Based on what we see, that may not be true.
The ambitious efforts put into Euro 2024 have resulted in improvements. Interestingly, statistics show that teams may benefit from shooting more often than they currently do. This could mean that changes need to be made to ensure better results.
In 2021, a study for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference titled 'Leaving Goals on the Pitch' investigated this concept and came to the same result. It began with a statement made by Johan Cruyff that stated, "If you don't shoot, you can't score."
The study discovered that there were untapped regions on the field where teams could score an additional 0.5 to 1.5 goals in a season if they focused on taking more shots in those areas, increasing their shot frequency by 10 to 20 percent rather than trying something else.
Making a pass could increase the odds of success, but there's also a chance it won't. Opting out of taking a shot poses the possibility that an even better opportunity may not surface. Surprisingly, research indicates that even the top-performing teams could gain an advantage by abstaining from passing in specific scenarios.
If you are not the Manchester City team, you have even more reasons to take that shot. Romania's players seemed to understand this, as they made six out of nine shots from outside the box. Their eagerness to try is what made a difference in the game.
Could they have benefited from waiting for a more opportune moment or choosing to pass to a teammate instead? It's possible. Romelu Lukaku may regret that Leandro Trossard didn't choose to pass to him instead of taking two shots in Belgium's loss to Slovakia.
Let us embrace this more unconventional approach to playing football, which involves taking bold and daring actions. Let's give a round of applause to Florian Wirtz, Emre Can, Razvan Marin, and Lukas Provod, alongside other players who have brought excitement to the initial stage of group matches in Germany.
For more than 30 years, only one goal has been scored from outside the box during a European Championship final. This was achieved by Eder for Portugal in their extra-time victory over France at Euro 2016. Perhaps it is now time for Euro 2024 to replicate this feat and provide us with another stunning goal scored from outside the box.
