General Election 2024 ????️ What the pollsters predict about Lincolnshire's seats

As we near the general election and the country prepares to vote, experts are forecasting a significant win for the Labour party. They are even predicting that Labour could break through the traditionally Conservative stronghold of Lincolnshire.

On July 4th, the nation will vote for 650 new Members of Parliament who will elect a Prime Minister to lead the country in the coming years.

Numerous surveys have been carried out across the country leading up to the election, and it appears that the general consensus is that a Labour government is likely to win after 14 years of Conservative control.

It is important to emphasize that these are just surveys of opinions and only educated guesses, and the real outcome that counts will be when people actually go out to vote on Thursday.

Nevertheless, we have examined recent polls carried out by various trustworthy polling firms and media outlets, ranging from Survation's study of nearly 35,000 voters to YouGov's latest MRP analysis of seats, in order to determine the projected political scene in Greater Lincolnshire.

Even though the Conservatives are expected to maintain some of the 12 seats they easily won in 2019, experts are saying that places like Lincoln, Scunthorpe, Great Grimsby, and Cleethorpes may be won back by the Labour Party.

This is what Survation, The Economist, and YouGov are forecasting for the upcoming 2024 general election in Greater Lincolnshire.

Lincoln's Labor candidate Hamish Falconer can be seen in this photo taken by James Turner.

All three of the polls we examined forecasted a win for Labour's Hamish Falconer in Lincoln, taking the seat from Karl McCartney of the Conservative Party by a significant lead.

All the surveys predict that Reform UK and Jamie-Lee McMillan will come in third place, garnering up to 16% of the vote, according to both YouGov and The Economist.

Health Secretary and Conservative candidate for Louth and Horncastle, Victoria Atkins, at Boots UK introducing the Pharmacy First program.

Based on the surveys, this seat in Lincolnshire is predicted to be highly unpredictable, even though it belongs to the current Health Secretary Victoria Atkins.

The Economist forecasts that the Conservative candidate will emerge victorious, while Survation suggests that Labour's Jonathan Slater has the upper hand. On the other hand, YouGov predicts that Reform UK's Sean Matthews will come out on top.

Sir Edward Leigh, the Conservative nominee for Gainsborough. Photo credit: Ellis Karran/LDRS

For the past forty years, Sir Edward Leigh has represented Gainsborough as a Member of Parliament. According to recent polls, it appears likely that he will continue serving in parliament for even longer.

Yet, his significant lead of 45% in 2019 may decrease significantly, as Survation forecasts it could be as close as 0.2% of the vote share with Labour candidate Jess McGuire.

The political contender for Rutland & Stamford, Conservative candidate Alicia Kearns

Many experts believe that Rutland & Stamford is a stronghold for the Conservative Party, and predict that their candidate, Alicia Kearns, will easily secure victory in the upcoming 2024 election.

Labour consistently ranks as the second most popular party in various polls, but the difference in percentages, ranging from 7.1% to 20.9%, indicates that Labour faces a difficult challenge in trying to surpass the Conservative Party's lead in this area.

South Holland and the Deepings Member of Parliament John Hayes is featured in this photo taken by Lincolnshire Reporter photographer Steve Smailes.

In the 2019 election, Sir John Hayes secured a majority of 62.7% for the Conservative party. The current polls indicate that it would be extremely difficult for him to be defeated in the upcoming election in the South Holland & The Deepings constituency.

That doesn't mean the difference won't decrease, as indicated by the polls. Survation and The Economist predict that Labour will reduce the distance, while YouGov confidently predicts that Reform UK's Matt Swainson will be only 1.3% behind the Conservatives.

The person running as the Conservative candidate in Boston & Skegness is Matt Warman. Photo by James Turner.

Reform UK made a bold move in this area by sending Richard Tice, their former leader and current chairman, to campaign in Lincolnshire. The latest polls suggest that Tice will have a strong showing, but it is expected that he will ultimately come in second place to the Conservative candidate, Matt Warman.

In 2015, Matt Warman won his first election and is predicted to win another election in Boston & Skegness, although it may not be a decisive victory. The Labour party is slightly behind Reform UK in the polls, setting up a possible three-way competition on election day.

After new borders were established, Grantham parted ways with Stamford and joined forces with Bourne. It is likely that this merger will have an impact on the outcome, as indicated by the latest polls.

The Economist and YouGov are forecasting that Gareth Davies, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, will likely keep his seat for the Conservative party. However, Survation is suggesting that Labour's candidate Vipul Bechar could potentially win the constituency.

This area has always been loyal to the Conservative party, and even though the competition is expected to be closer, polls indicate that this trend will continue for Caroline Johnson in 2024.

The majority of 2019 is coming to an end, but Labour is closing the gap to as little as 4%, as reported by pollsters and The Economist.

The person running for the Labour party in the Scunthorpe area is Sir Nic Dakin.

It is anticipated that the upcoming election in Scunthorpe will result in a return to Labour and Sir Nic Dakin, based on recent polls.

Holly Mumby-Croft and the Conservatives pulled off an unexpected victory in 2019, but projections indicating a potential margin of up to 20% suggest that a similar success is not very probable, according to this assessment.

, is running for the parliamentary seat in the upcoming election. Melanie Onn is hoping to represent the constituents of Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes in Parliament. She is seeking the support of voters in the region to help her secure victory in the election.

In 2019, the election outcome in Great Grimsby was a major highlight, as Lia Nici and the Conservative Party won the historically Labour-held seat for the first time in decades. However, the forecasts for the upcoming 2024 election are concerning.

All three surveys forecast a significant shift towards Labour candidate Melanie Onn, with YouGov predicting Reform UK's Oliver Freeston will follow closely behind and potentially surpass the Conservative vote.

Martin Vickers is credited by Steve Smailes.

One more area is changing its name due to boundary adjustments. Brigg & Immingham will now have Conservative Martin Vickers running for re-election, but this time in a different constituency than Cleethorpes where he previously ran.

Experts who analyze data from public opinion polls are forecasting a close competition between the Labour and Conservative parties. The Economist and YouGov believe that the Conservatives will narrowly retain their position, while Survation suggests that Labour's popularity across the country could lead to a defeat for the Tories in this area.

- The person running for the Labour party in Doncaster East & The Isle of Axholme is Lee Pitcher.

In the area stretching from Lincolnshire into South Yorkshire lies the Doncaster East & The Isle of Axholme constituency, where it is expected that Labour will make significant gains from the Conservatives.

The Labour candidate, Lee Pitcher, is expected to win in all areas against Nick Fletcher from the Conservative party. YouGov has also indicated that Reform UK could potentially secure the second spot in this race.

You can view all the individuals running for office in your area by utilizing the MyLocal Election Hub.