Vladimir Putin draws new red line on long-range missiles

The headline in today’s Kommersant newspaper conveyed the intensity of the situation.

"Vladimir Putin sets his boundaries."

Will the West take that step? And if they do, what will be Russia's reaction?

While addressing an audience in St. Petersburg, President Putin delivered a strong message to Western nations, urging them not to enable Ukraine to utilize their long-range missiles to target Russian land.

He mentioned that Moscow would see this as NATO countries being directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine.

"It would fundamentally alter the core and character of the conflict," the leader of the Kremlin added.

“This indicates that NATO nations, along with the United States and European countries, are in conflict with Russia.”

He stated that, for launching missiles into Russia, Ukraine would need information from Western satellites, and that only military personnel from NATO countries would be authorized to enter flight plans into these missile systems.

Russia has set clear boundaries in the past and has experienced those limits being violated previously.

On February 24, 2022, when he declared the beginning of his "special military operation," which marked a complete invasion of Ukraine, President Putin cautioned anyone who might consider getting involved from outside.

"The leader of the Kremlin stated that anyone who attempts to obstruct us or poses threats to our nation and its citizens should be aware that Russia will take swift action."

"And the outcomes will be unlike anything you've ever experienced before in your entire past."

Western leaders dismissed what many viewed at the time as threats of nuclear action. Since then, the West has supplied Ukraine with tanks, sophisticated missile systems, and, more recently, American F-16 fighter jets.

This year, Russia has claimed that Ukraine is using American long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Crimea, the peninsula that was taken over by Russia.

ATACMS missiles launched during military drills between the US and South Korea.

Additionally, in the past two years, Russian officials and state-run media have frequently claimed that the West is "attacking Russia" or waging "a war" against the country. This is despite the fact that it was Russia that initiated the invasion of Ukraine.

However, based on President Putin's recent comments, it's evident that he views the use of Western missile systems on recognized Russian land as a significant escalation in the conflict.

What he failed to clarify yesterday is how Moscow plans to react.

Vladimir Putin stated, "We will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats we face."

On Friday, Russia revoked the credentials of six British diplomats, claiming they were involved in actions aimed at undermining the country and posing a threat to its security.

However, Putin's possible reaction could be much wider in scope. He hinted at this back in June.

During a gathering with leaders from global news organizations, he was questioned about how Russia would respond if Ukraine were allowed to strike targets within Russia using weapons provided by European nations.

"To begin with, we will enhance our air defense capabilities. We will take down their missiles," President Putin stated.

Secondly, we think that if someone believes it's feasible to send these types of weapons to a conflict area to attack us and cause us issues, then why shouldn't we provide our own weapons of a similar kind to regions across the globe where they could aim at critical sites in the countries that are threatening Russia?

Simply put, providing weapons to Western enemies for attacks on Western interests overseas is a strategy that Moscow has been contemplating.

At the beginning of this month, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, revealed that the country plans to update its nuclear policy. This document outlines the specific situations in which Moscow might contemplate the use of nuclear arms.

He indicated that the choice to update the doctrine was “linked to the increasing actions of Russia’s Western opponents.”

UK Prime Minister Starmer and Foreign Secretary Lammy have landed in the United States.

At the same time, Sir Keir Starmer is in Washington to meet with President Biden. They are anticipated to cover topics such as Ukraine and the issue of long-range missiles.

"Russia initiated this conflict by unlawfully invading Ukraine," Sir Keir stated while traveling to Washington. "The end of this conflict is entirely in Russia's hands."

Western leaders face a critical choice: weigh the potential for this conflict to escalate against the necessity of easing the limitations on Ukraine's use of Western missiles.