Should Europe be spooked by Putin’s new nuclear brinkmanship?
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Good morning, everyone. Are we approaching the brink of a third world war? Vladimir Putin seems to want us to believe it. In this post, I delve into the effects of his recent shift in the Kremlin’s nuclear policy and the beginning of Ukraine deploying American long-range missiles against Russian positions.
Our climate reporter covers the ongoing struggle between EU cities and the European Parliament regarding the contentious deforestation legislation within the bloc.
Vladimir Putin escalated the nuclear threat once more yesterday by permitting a possible nuclear attack on Western nations that are providing arms to Ukraine. Officials described this as a critical test of the determination of Kyiv’s supporters.
Putin has revised Russia's military doctrine, making it easier to resort to nuclear weapons. The new guidelines suggest that if Russia is attacked with advanced western weaponry, like the US long-range Atacms missiles, it could trigger a nuclear response. Additionally, if a non-nuclear country is attacked and backed by a nuclear nation, that situation would also be viewed as a collective attack.
This occurred just a few hours after Ukraine used Atacms to hit a target in Russia for the first time, which happened less than 48 hours after President Joe Biden lifted restrictions on their use by Ukraine.
The spokesperson for the Kremlin made a somewhat unclear effort to refute the apparent coincidence, suggesting that the new doctrine broadens available choices while not imposing any obligations.
However, other Russian officials were more direct. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated, "It's not possible to operate these advanced missiles without the Americans," and described their usage as an indication that the West is seeking to escalate tensions.
Western officials mostly dismissed the threat of blackmail.
Josep Borrell, the top diplomat for the EU, stated after a meeting of EU defense ministers that discussing nuclear warfare is highly reckless. He noted, “This isn’t the first instance of Putin using nuclear threats.”
Borrell stated that Ukrainians firing Atacms at military sites in Russia is in line with both legal standards and international law.
Some observers noted that if Putin's latest regulations were considered genuine, the Atacms attacks could indicate that he isn't just threatening to deploy a nuclear weapon, but is actually prepared to use one.
It is more probable, others have indicated, that Russia will react to the US changing its missile policy by carrying out additional hybrid attacks in Europe. These could include tactics that are difficult to trace, such as setting fires, sabotaging infrastructure, or providing assistance to proxy groups. Recently, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the UK collectively accused Russia of "deliberately undermining the security framework of Europe."
Nevertheless, the aggressive nuclear posturing unsettled investors. The Dax in Germany and France's Cac 40 index both dropped by 0.7 percent, while safer investments like gold, the Swiss Franc, and US 10-year Treasury bonds saw an increase.
"Some attendees had rather grim expressions at the table," remarked a high-ranking official who attended the G20 leaders' summit in Rio, commenting on Putin's declaration. "It's understandable since we were basically talking about what could be the apocalypse."
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Swedish authorities looking into the cutting of two cables in the Baltic Sea are examining the path of a Chinese vessel that traveled by both sites while en route from Russia.
The largest political faction in the EU attempted to significantly weaken the bloc's key legislation on deforestation. However, member countries are resisting these efforts, reports Alice Hancock.
The European Union had planned to implement a law prohibiting the sale of products cultivated on land that has been deforested by the end of this year. However, due to misunderstandings among businesses regarding the regulations and objections from trading partners, the European Commission has suggested postponing the law for another year.
The centre-right European People’s Party took advantage of a vote in the European Parliament last week concerning the delay to push for more changes to the legislation, with support from far-right parties. These changes would essentially allow the majority of EU member states to avoid following the regulations, much to the disappointment of nations globally.
In today's meeting of EU ambassadors, it seems probable that they will reject the EPP's proposed amendment. This is mainly due to the lack of information about how the newly suggested "no risk" category would function, as well as uncertainty about whether it would violate international trade regulations.
A parliamentary official stated, “The amendments are not focused on the content itself; rather, they are merely a tactic to demonstrate who holds power in the European Parliament during this new legislative session.”
Numerous member countries are in favor of the commission's suggested postponement; however, only a handful are willing to make significant changes to the regulation now that it has been approved, according to an EU diplomat.
Countries like Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, and Poland are opposed to the "no risk" proposal.
This confrontation might pave the way for the upcoming weeks, as the European People's Party (EPP), led by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, seeks to modify aspects of the EU’s environmental policies.
As companies seek stability, last-minute adjustments might not be accepted by investors.
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A bit of progress: Austria is anticipated to lift its opposition to Romania and Bulgaria joining the Schengen area, which allows for free travel without borders, later this week.
Self-made troubles: Constanze Stelzenmüller argues that Germany's new government should not anticipate much understanding from other countries.
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