Putin plays host to 36 world leaders at Brics summit in Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been shunned by Western countries and branded a possible war criminal by the International Criminal Court, welcomed 36 leaders from countries like China, India, and Iran for a BRICS summit. This event aimed to showcase Moscow's influence and counter the perception of isolation.

It wasn't clear whether the UN Secretary-General would go against the West and Ukraine by attending the summit, as Moscow alleges he plans to do. On Monday, a spokesperson for António Guterres gave an ambiguous response regarding his intentions.

The International Criminal Court has released a warrant for Putin's arrest due to the kidnapping of Ukrainian children and their transfer to Russia.

Moscow announced that delegates from 36 nations will participate in various segments of the three-day event, marking it as the largest international assembly led by Putin since he initiated the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Putin is scheduled to have private discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with 15 additional bilateral meetings.

Russia asserts that the group embodies the worldwide majority, which could play a significant role in shaping a future global order.

The Brics group has grown from its original five members—South Africa, Russia, China, Brazil, and India—to include additional countries like Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran. Argentina initially sought membership but later retracted its application following its presidential elections.

New candidates, frequently referred to as hedging states, that are at different points in the process of pursuing membership include Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Other attendees at the event, besides the undecided Guterres, will include Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, along with leaders from Algeria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Indonesia, and Mexico.

One of the main goals of the group is to balance the influence of major Western economies, particularly the stronghold of the dollar, which many view as a tool for the US to enforce its political agenda through sanctions. Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran, stated on his way to the summit in Kazan that "Brics could provide an escape from American authoritarianism and pave the way for a more cooperative approach among nations. It can serve as a solution for overcoming the dollar's dominance and addressing the economic sanctions faced by various countries."

However, as more countries join BRICS, there is a potential danger of losing a strong sense of shared ideologies.

India and Brazil have some interest in reducing reliance on the dollar, but not to the same degree as China or Russia. Even with the critical tone in the statements from summit meetings, Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has emphasized that Brics is “not opposed to anyone.”

Alex Gabuev, the head of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin, remarked that the BRICS summit is essentially a boon for Putin.

In an article for Foreign Affairs, he conveyed that the takeaway from the meeting will be: “Russia is not just isolated on the global stage; instead, it has become a crucial player in an active coalition that will influence the future of international relations. This statement goes beyond mere rhetoric; it reflects the Kremlin's effective diplomatic efforts with nations outside the West and the practical, self-serving interactions those countries have with Russia.”

Putin opted not to attend the recent Brics summit in Johannesburg to avoid putting his hosts in a difficult position. Since South Africa is a member of the Rome Statute, they would have been required to detain him under the ICC warrant.

Putin might be optimistic that global events are turning in his favor, especially with Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House next month and the chance of a positive outcome in the elections in Georgia this weekend.

The immediate future of the conflict in Ukraine largely depends on whether Trump gets elected again. However, regardless of the election outcome, a sense of weariness regarding the war is spreading across Europe, prompting all parties to realize that Ukraine will need to engage in discussions with Putin, especially as Russian forces continue to hold significant territory in eastern Ukraine. If Guterres chooses to attend the summit, it could have significant implications on the global stage.

In 2014, Brazil, China, India, and South Africa chose not to vote on a UN General Assembly resolution affirming Ukraine's territorial integrity after Russia took control of Crimea. However, their solidarity appeared weaker during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as India, China, and South Africa again abstained from voting, while Brazil criticized Russia's actions.

However, the primary goal of Brics+ isn't centered around security; instead, it's focused on creating economic and technological frameworks that can withstand pressure and sanctions from the United States. This involves finding ways to bypass the dollar and promoting the global use of the yuan.

Although the Brics+ group has a higher total GDP compared to the G7 or the EU, its share of capital and voting power in organizations like the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) is still considerably lower. This is because the voting strength of each member nation is determined by how much financial support it provides to the World Bank.