Putin Lowers Nuclear Weapons Threshold After U.S. Allows Ukraine to Use Missiles Against Russia
Putin Lowers Russia's Nuclear Engagement Threshold
A directive signed by the Russian president, which had been in the works for some time, was issued just days after President Biden approved the use of American-sourced missiles by Ukraine to target locations within Russia.
On Tuesday, President Vladimir V. Putin reduced the conditions under which Russia might deploy nuclear weapons. This strategic decision, which had been in the works for some time, seems aimed at demonstrating that the Kremlin is ready to take strong action in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil using American missiles.
The order signed by Mr. Putin put into action an updated version of Russia's nuclear policy, which he had discussed in a televised speech back in September. However, the timing of this announcement was significant, occurring only two days after reports that President Biden had given the green light for Ukraine to use longer-range missiles provided by the U.S. to target locations within Russia.
When asked if Russia might react with nuclear weapons to such attacks, Dmitri S. Peskov, a spokesperson for Mr. Putin, reiterated the wording from their new military doctrine. He stated that Russia "reserves the right" to employ nuclear weapons if faced with a conventional assault that poses a "critical threat" to its "sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Russia's Defense Ministry subsequently reported that Kyiv launched a pre-dawn strike on an ammunition storage facility in southwestern Russia using ballistic missiles known as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). An anonymous senior official from both the United States and Ukraine, who were discussing active military operations, verified that the strikes involved ATACMS, which can travel up to 190 miles, making them the furthest-reaching weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western nations.
The White House downplayed Mr. Putin's recent doctrine. A statement from the National Security Council indicated that there had been "no changes to Russia's nuclear stance."
The updated policy, released on Tuesday on the Kremlin's website, marks a significant shift from the earlier version in at least two key aspects. These changes reflect Mr. Putin's strategy to leverage the potential of his nuclear weapons in order to discourage the U.S. from increasing its support for Ukraine.
Initially, it suggests that nuclear weapons might be employed against a nation with nuclear capabilities that doesn't directly attack Russia but aids a non-nuclear country in doing so. This clearly points to Ukraine and its nuclear-capable allies, particularly the United States. Russia's earlier nuclear strategy concentrated on reacting to assaults from other nuclear-armed nations and their alliances.
Additionally, it reduces the level of threat that would lead Russia to think about using nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack. According to the previous policy outlined in 2020, a conventional attack had to pose a serious risk to the country's survival. In contrast, the updated policy now considers a “critical threat” to Russia’s sovereignty as sufficient justification for nuclear response.
The announcement issued by the Kremlin on Tuesday seemed to signal that Russia might resort to nuclear weapons in retaliation for attacks from Ukraine that are backed by the U.S. Furthermore, it indicated that such a response could target American installations in addition to Ukraine.
The document states that any act of aggression towards Russia or its allies by a non-nuclear country, if it involves or is backed by a nuclear nation, will be viewed as a combined assault.
During his daily conference call with journalists, Mr. Peskov highlighted a specific part of the updated doctrine, noting, "this is also a crucial section."
"Nuclear deterrence is designed to make sure that any possible enemy recognizes that retaliation is unavoidable if they decide to attack Russia or its allies," Mr. Peskov stated.
In a statement released by the National Security Council, the White House expressed that it was "not taken aback" by the recent decree, as Mr. Putin had hinted at this shift several months earlier.
"This represents a continuation of the careless statements we've heard from Russia over the last two years," the statement indicated. The White House did not connect its decision to lift restrictions on Ukraine with Mr. Putin's announcement.
Western leaders have expressed that their biggest concern about Russia potentially using nuclear weapons arises when the Russian military is in a weakened position. However, at this time, it seems that the conflict in Ukraine is largely favoring President Putin.
On the frontlines, Russian troops are pushing forward in eastern Ukraine, while Kyiv faces challenges with enlisting new soldiers and maintaining morale. In the realm of global politics, President Putin is also experiencing some successes: his recent conversation with Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz ended a two-year silence in diplomacy with major Western nations. Additionally, Donald J. Trump's election as the new president of the United States has sparked optimism in Russia for a potential peace agreement regarding Ukraine that aligns with the Kremlin's expectations.
Since the beginning of his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Putin has been attempting to leverage the fear of Russia's vast nuclear weapons stockpile to dissuade Western nations from providing military support to Ukraine. However, his efforts have seen only modest success, as the United States has spearheaded a coalition that has sent billions of dollars worth of advanced tanks, artillery, and missile systems to Ukraine.
Mr. Putin has attempted to establish a new boundary by warning against Ukraine launching Western missiles to hit targets deep within Russia. This position has frustrated Ukrainian leaders, as President Biden has consistently avoided approving the use of these weapons in that manner. American officials have expressed concerns about the potential for a strong retaliation from Putin and noted that these missiles might not significantly affect the situation on the battlefield.
However, Mr. Biden shifted his approach recently following Russia's unexpected choice to involve North Korean soldiers in the conflict, according to U.S. officials.
In September, Mr. Putin cautioned that if the U.S. and its allies allowed Ukraine to launch missiles further into Russian territory, it would effectively place his nation in direct conflict with NATO. Ukraine has been employing domestically-produced weapons to carry out attacks from greater distances.
Before Mr. Biden made his choice, certain U.S. officials expressed concerns that if Ukraine utilized the missiles near the border, it could lead Mr. Putin to respond aggressively towards the U.S. and its allies. However, other officials believed that those worries were exaggerated.
In light of Mr. Biden's latest actions, Russian leaders have issued some of their most serious warnings about the possibility of nuclear conflict. On Tuesday, Andrei Kartapolov, who chairs the defense committee in the lower house of Russia's Parliament, remarked that Mr. Biden is essentially sealing his own fate and will take many others down with him.
The current issue is whether Mr. Putin perceives a benefit in escalating his confrontation with the United States — through methods that don’t involve nuclear weapons — in light of Mr. Trump potentially regaining the presidency soon.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, characterized the current situation on X as an “incredibly perilous moment.” She suggested that Mr. Putin may feel inclined to intensify the conflict before Mr. Trump assumes office, aiming to secure a peace agreement that favors his own conditions.
However, some experts continued to believe that since Mr. Trump has openly expressed his desire to bring the war to a swift conclusion, Mr. Putin would likely take a more sensible approach by steering clear of any moves that could intensify his tensions with the United States.
An analyst from Moscow, affiliated with a group closely tied to the Russian government, stated that although Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles probably won’t alter the trajectory of the conflict, a strong reaction towards the United States could lead to issues for Trump.
"The analyst, who wished to remain unnamed due to restrictions on speaking to Western media, noted that it will be more challenging for him to change the current situation if that's his goal."
Oleg Matsnev and David E. Sanger provided additional reporting.
Anton Troianovski serves as the chief correspondent in Moscow for The Times. He focuses his reporting on Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus region, and Central Asia. Learn more about Anton Troianovski.
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from the New York version
Russia’s threshold for deploying nuclear weapons has decreased following Ukraine’s acquisition of ATACMS.
