China is the true power in Putin and Kim’s budding friendship

The embrace given upon arrival at 3:00 am on the runway, the group of mounted soldiers who paid their respects, and the large portraits of Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin displayed together in the heart of Pyongyang were intended to instill fear in Western nations.

When Mr Putin went to Pyongyang, it was the first time since 2000. This was an opportunity for Russia and North Korea to show off their friendship. They did just that, with Mr Kim stating that he fully supports Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The cities of Seoul, Tokyo, Washington, and Brussels may view the planned meeting as a significant threat. However, the reality is that both leaders recognize their mutual dependence. Mr. Putin is in dire need of resources to sustain the ongoing conflict, while North Korea requires financial support.

Nonetheless, the true dominance in the area did not lie within Pyongyang - and it had no intention of doing so. Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim were forming a strong connection near China's borders and therefore would have been cautious about agitating Beijing, a crucial origin of both commerce and influence for these two disallowed administrations.

Mr Putin may refer to a close bond with Mr Kim, but he is aware of its boundaries. It is clear that President Xi Jinping of China is the ultimate constraint.

Despite not openly criticizing Russia's incursion into Ukraine, the leader in question has yet to offer substantial aid to their military efforts. In May, when the two leaders met, the leader's careful language stood in stark contrast to President Putin's effusive praise for his counterpart.

Up until now, China has supported Mr Kim's attempts to improve his nuclear weapons program by preventing the United States from implementing sanctions against North Korea at the United Nations.

However, Mr. Xi does not support the notion of a more confident Kim Jong Un.

Through Pyongyang conducting weapons tests, Japan and South Korea were able to put their sour past aside and establish a defense agreement with the United States. As tensions escalate, a greater number of American warships arrive in Pacific waters, which causes Mr. Xi to feel apprehensive about the formation of an "East Asian Nato."

Russia may have to reevaluate selling additional technology to North Koreans due to Beijing's dissatisfaction, which is also causing concern for the United States.

The head of NK News, Andrei Lankov, is doubtful and not very hopeful that Russia will give North Korea a significant quantity of military technology.

In his opinion, if Russia were to do this, it would not receive many benefits and could potentially cause issues in the future.

Although obtaining North Korean artillery could benefit Mr. Putin's military campaign, exchanging it for missile technology would not be a favorable transaction.

Mr. Putin may come to understand that it is not wise to anger China, as they are a significant purchaser of Russian oil and gas. Additionally, China remains an important partner for Russia, particularly in a global context where Mr. Putin is facing increased isolation.

Pyongyang requires China's support more than ever before. China is the solitary nation Mr Kim regularly travels to, and it is responsible for at least 80% of North Korea's economy. Although a significant proportion of North Korea's oil is supplied by Russia (ranging from 25-50%), China is still the primary ally. One expert likened the China-North Korea partnership to an oil lamp that continues to provide steady light.

Basically, no matter how much Mr Putin and Mr Kim try to make it seem like they are friends, their connection with China is much more significant than what they have in common.

Even though they claim to be fighting against the Western powers, this relationship is only temporary during the war. It might progress in the future, but currently it seems like a business deal, even as they enhance their partnership to the status of an "alliance".

The highly significant agreement known as the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which was revealed during a discussion between Mr Putin and Mr Kim, does not ensure that Pyongyang will continue to provide military resources.

Mr Kim requires resources to uphold his own image, as he is responsible for the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) separating North and South Korea.

Experts think that Russia and North Korea utilize diverse computer system platforms, wherein the latter's system is of poor standard and starting to become outdated.

A crucial point to note is that Russia and North Korea did not give importance to their bond for many years. During the time when he had a cordial association with the West, Mr Putin imposed sanctions on Pyongyang twice. He went to the extent of joining hands with the US, China, South Korea, and Japan to convince North Korea to surrender its nuclear program.

When Kim Jong Un embarked on a series of diplomatic summits in 2018, he had just one meeting with Vladimir Putin. During that time, Mr. Kim was more focused on South Korean President Moon Jae-in whom he met with three times, which included enthusiastic exchanges of smiles, hugs, and handshakes.

Before their three meetings, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un communicated with former US President Donald Trump through what he referred to as "love letters". Despite previously calling Trump a "dotard", he suddenly viewed him as someone significant. In addition, he had three meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with whom he had his first interaction with as an international leader.