Analysis: The West wants Putin isolated. A major summit he’s hosting shows he’s far from alone | CNN

Almost three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, which led to widespread global criticism of Moscow, Vladimir Putin is organizing a summit with over a dozen world leaders. This move sends a clear message from the authoritarian leader that he is not isolated; rather, a new alliance of nations is rallying to support him.

The BRICS summit, taking place for three days starting Tuesday in Kazan, a city in southwestern Russia, marks the group's first gathering since it welcomed new members this year. The coalition, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has now expanded to incorporate Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran.

Anticipated attendees include Xi Jinping from China, Narendra Modi from India, Masoud Pezeshkian from Iran, and Cyril Ramaphosa from South Africa. Additionally, leaders from outside the group, such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are expected to participate. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was supposed to be there as well but had to cancel his visit due to an injury he sustained at home.

This week’s meeting is expected to be the biggest international event hosted by the Russian president since the war began in February 2022. It brings together BRICS nations and others, highlighting a strengthening alliance among countries that are eager to see a change in global power dynamics. Some of these nations, such as Russia, China, and Iran, aim to directly challenge the influence of the West led by the United States.

In the coming days, Putin, along with his key ally and the leader of the most influential BRICS nation, Xi, will emphasize this idea: the West is the one that is increasingly isolated due to its sanctions and alliances. Meanwhile, they will highlight that a “global majority” of countries backs their efforts to take on American dominance on the world stage.

During a press conference on Friday, Putin praised the increasing economic and political influence of BRICS nations, describing it as an "undeniable fact." He emphasized that if BRICS and other interested nations join forces, they could play a significant role in shaping a new global order. However, he rejected the notion that the group functions as an "anti-Western alliance."

Putin’s communication this week carries added significance since it coincides with the upcoming US elections. A win for former President Donald Trump could lead to a change in how the United States supports Ukraine, potentially straining relationships with its usual allies.

"This BRICS summit is truly a boon for Putin," remarked Alex Gabuev, head of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. "It sends the message: how can one claim that Russia is globally isolated when all these leaders are gathering in Kazan?"

According to Gabuev, Russia aims to present BRICS as a leading force, a new group that guides everyone towards a fairer global system.

However, in spite of Russia's grand statements, the leaders gathering in Kazan hold a diverse array of opinions and interests. This variety, according to analysts, hampers BRICS's capacity to present a cohesive message, particularly the one that Putin might hope for.

The gathering in Russia stands in stark contrast to last year's BRICS summit in Johannesburg, where Putin had to join via video link because he couldn't be there in person. He was facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes related to the situation in Ukraine.

This year, the Russian president is leading the first summit since the organization expanded significantly, and this event is happening against a markedly different backdrop on the global stage.

Although BRICS mainly focuses on economic cooperation, last year's meeting occurred against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine. As this conflict continues, the escalating situation in the Middle East, particularly Israel's conflict with Iranian-backed groups, is expected to be a significant topic of discussion among the leaders.

Last week, Putin announced that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas would be participating in the event. According to analysts, the Russian president and his team are expected to leverage the ongoing conflict and the widespread resentment in the Global South towards the US and its backing of Israel to support their case for creating a new world order that excludes US dominance.

China and Russia have urged for a halt to the escalating conflict and have condemned Israel's actions. In contrast, the United States has supported Israel's right to respond to attacks from militant groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

A number of participants at the summit view the Middle East conflict as a key reason for increasing the influence of this specific group of nations, according to Jonathan Fulton, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council based in Abu Dhabi. However, he noted that these countries often use the situation more as a talking point to express their criticisms rather than actively seeking to help resolve the issue.

People will be closely monitoring if China and Brazil take the opportunity at the meeting to promote their joint six-point peace plan regarding the conflict in Ukraine, similar to what they did at last month's United Nations General Assembly. During that event, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the initiative, arguing that it would ultimately benefit Moscow. He also cautioned Beijing and Brasília, stating, "You won't gain strength at the cost of Ukraine."

According to Gabuev in Berlin, Zelensky is currently facing difficulties in putting forward his "victory plan" to resolve the conflict, along with the upcoming US elections. This situation has given China a significant chance to promote its own approach to the Ukraine issue without significantly risking its influence.

The meeting in Kazan also provides Putin with plenty of chances to have personal conversations with his fellow BRICS leaders and other supportive officials who are attending.

The recent entry of Iran into BRICS, a development highlighted by CNN, indicates a strengthening of ties with Russia, especially considering Iran's alleged supply of hundreds of drones and short-range ballistic missiles to Moscow, which Iran has denied. Furthermore, the US and its allies have accused China of supporting Russia's military campaign by supplying dual-use items such as machinery and microelectronics. However, China refutes these claims, asserting that it is simply engaged in standard trade with Russia and maintaining a neutral position regarding the conflict.

In the coming days, leaders are anticipated to talk about how to progress in their efforts to facilitate transactions that don't rely on the US dollar, utilizing BRICS currencies and banking systems. This approach could provide economic advantages and also allow member nations like Russia to bypass Western sanctions. Additionally, these countries are expected to explore opportunities to enhance collaboration in various fields, including energy and the exchange of satellite information.

At the same time, they will also have to deal with the disagreements and varying objectives among the member countries, which experts believe restricts the potential accomplishments of BRICS.

This isn’t a new development for the group, which first gathered for a summit of Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009, bringing together significant emerging economies. The group expanded in 2010 to include South Africa. In 2015, BRICS established the New Development Bank, aimed at providing a different option or additional support alongside the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

BRICS was formed with a common goal of changing the international system to give its members a stronger voice. From the beginning, it has brought together nations that have significant differences in their political and economic structures, along with various other tensions.

India and China, for instance, have had a long-standing border dispute, yet they both play crucial roles in the group. Their differences have become more noticeable in recent times, especially as tensions between China and the US have risen, while India and the US have strengthened their partnership.

Currently, BRICS has once again grown in size, with the Kremlin noting that over 30 more countries are keen to either join or collaborate with the group. However, experts point out that increasing geopolitical divides are making it more challenging to define BRICS’ identity and future path.

"China and Russia have largely attempted to transform the group from being recognized as emerging economies to perhaps representing a kind of frustration with Western dominance," explained Manoj Kewalramani, who leads Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution, a research center located in Bangalore, India.

New or prospective members might not feel the need to pick between this vision and the West. Instead, they are focused on developing their economies and taking a practical, non-ideological approach, he noted.