Who will win the election? Our experts agree Trump is gaining ground

Experts' Final Predictions For US Election Winner

As the election approaches in just a few hours, Trump's campaign seems to be gaining momentum. However, do our specialists believe that this will be sufficient to secure victory?

As our specialists share their last forecasts, the competition for the White House hangs in the balance. Determining who will become president is incredibly challenging and somewhat exasperating, as polls show a narrow advantage or deficit in either direction.

In the end, everything rests on election day. During these uncertain times, our analysts lean slightly in favor of Donald Trump, even though their predictions are primarily based on instinct rather than concrete data.

Who will emerge victorious in the election? To be completely candid, I truly don't know. However, I'm not alone in this uncertainty.

In conversations I've had recently with various reputable pollsters and analysts, a common sentiment emerges. The financial markets seem to be favoring Kamala Harris, while the betting markets lean towards Donald Trump. Current national polls, as well as those from key swing states, are so close that they fall within the margin of error. This situation doesn’t automatically indicate that the final result will be tight; rather, it highlights the challenge of making definitive conclusions from the data we have.

I can say that the atmosphere within Trump's team is much more positive compared to that of Harris's team. This is mainly because the key factors from the past few weeks haven't shifted. After a brief surge in the polls, it’s Trump who has been making significant progress as we approach the finish line.

The former president has changed his stance on early voting, and as a result, Republicans are noticing a boost. One state causing concern is Pennsylvania, where GOP strategists believe the Trump campaign hasn’t effectively mobilized on the ground. Meanwhile, supporters of Ms. Harris seem to have shown up to vote much earlier in larger numbers. Once again, everything could hinge on the outcome in the KeyStone state.

Donald Trump is performing better in polls compared to 2016 and 2020. This could be due to pollsters adjusting for previous mistakes, or it might indicate that he is a more formidable candidate than people thought. Within his team, there is a belief that they could win the popular vote. In the last few weeks of a campaign, voters often change their minds and switch their support, becoming "undecided" and making decisive choices. A classic example of this happened in 1980 when Reagan's popularity surged after the debate.

However, in 2024, the situation stays unchanged as both parties focus on their core supporters. The Republicans continue to make fun of Latinos, while the Democrats host rallies to revive the conversation around abortion. It’s been a campaign filled with excitement, but lacking in real substance.

Throughout the election, I've emphasized that when the differences are less than one or two points in the key states, the polling results really don’t provide clear answers.

Nonetheless, it's hard to overlook how pollsters have previously underestimated Trump's backing. In the final days of the campaign, he is ahead in five out of seven battleground states, which is sufficient to secure his path to the White House. Never before in his three elections has he found himself leading in this many crucial states.

At the same time, the Harris campaign is experiencing a decline in momentum. Recent polls show that her popularity is decreasing rather than increasing. Her path to the White House now depends on securing victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and either Wisconsin or Nevada. However, coordinating these outcomes is becoming increasingly challenging. That said, every election night featuring Trump has come with its share of unexpected events, and I have a feeling that Tuesday will be no exception.

In 2022, Trump, harboring bitterness from his close defeat in the presidential race, guided his party to a dismal outcome in the midterm elections. Many traditional Republicans had turned their backs on him following the events of January 6, and he was entangled in a series of challenging legal struggles. It seemed like it could be the conclusion for him.

Fast forward two years, and he's in a tight race with a fresh Democratic opponent who, although significantly outspending him, seems to be the underdog. If he emerges victorious in next week's election, it would be reasonable to say that Donald Trump has achieved one of the most astonishing political comebacks we've seen in a long time.

Certain trends in early voting appear to lean towards the GOP, but the campaign is facing some challenging days ahead. That said, considering how hard it is to get an accurate read on Trump supporters, I’ll admit my final prediction is more instinct than analysis: Teflon Don seems poised to reclaim the White House.

Given that many of the swing states are too tight to predict and with recent surprising events, both campaigners and analysts are finding it challenging to assess the situation. Kamala Harris seems to have made slight progress in certain areas recently, and her efforts to encourage voter turnout might enhance her results among her existing supporters.

However, I'm cautious about relying on polls and general feelings, especially since experts significantly misjudged Trump’s situation back in 2016. My gut tells me he’s likely to secure this one, potentially following a few recounts and a drawn-out period after Election Day.

Our specialists are asked to rate their choices on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents a complete victory for Harris, 50 indicates a draw, and 100 signifies a total triumph for Trump.