What will decide the US election and why it's so close

In recent American political history, we've never seen a presidential election outcome so uncertain—this is not an event for the easily intimidated.

In previous elections, the outcomes have often been very close—like in 2000 when George W. Bush won against Al Gore by just a few hundred votes in Florida. However, there's usually been a general feeling about the way the competition was leaning in the last few days leading up to the vote.

Sometimes, like in 2016, the predictions can be off. That year, surveys exaggerated Hillary Clinton's support and didn't pick up on a sudden shift towards Donald Trump.

This time, though, the signs are all mixed up. It's impossible for anyone to confidently forecast what will happen.

The majority of the last polls fall comfortably within the margin of error, both across the country and in the seven crucial swing states that could determine the outcome of the election.

Looking purely at the numbers and the size of the samples, it suggests that either candidate might be in the lead.

This unpredictability is what frustrates both political analysts and campaign strategists.

There have been a few unexpected developments, including one particularly surprising instance: a recent reputable survey in Iowa, which tends to favor Republicans, showing Harris in a surprising lead.

However, the leading polling averages and the analysis models that evaluate them indicate that this is essentially a 50-50 race.

Although the results of this election are unpredictable, it's important to note that the final outcome could still be very significant. Even a small change of a few percentage points in either direction could allow a candidate to win all the key states.

If the predictions about voter turnout are inaccurate and a larger number of women, rural residents, or frustrated young voters decide to cast their ballots, it could significantly change the outcome of the election.

There might also be unexpected findings within specific demographic groups.

Will Trump actually connect with young Black and Latino men as his campaign claims? Is Harris successfully attracting more suburban women who usually lean Republican, as her team desires? Are older voters, who consistently participate in elections and usually support conservative candidates, shifting their allegiance to the Democratic Party?

After this election is behind us, we might be able to clearly identify why the successful candidate emerged victorious.

Looking back, the answer might seem clear. However, anyone claiming to predict the future accurately at this moment is deceiving both you and themselves.

In many states across the US, the results of the presidential election are largely predictable. However, there are seven crucial swing states that will ultimately determine the election's outcome.

However, not all battleground states are equal in importance. Each candidate has a set of three key states that provide the clearest route to winning the presidency.

Harris's "blue" wall, named after the color associated with the Democratic Party, extends through Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the Great Lakes area. This topic has garnered significant political discussion since 2016, when Trump narrowly secured wins in these three states, which have traditionally leaned Democratic, on his way to overall victory.

Joe Biden won these states in 2020. If Harris can maintain this support, she won’t require any other competitive states, provided she also secures a congressional district in Nebraska (which has a unique method for distributing its electoral college votes).

This is why she has dedicated most of her time to these blue wall states during the last part of the campaign, spending entire days there in each location.

On Monday evening, she hosted her last campaign event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, right at the summit of the 72 steps that lead up to the city's Museum of Art. These steps are famous from the movie where Sylvester Stallone's character, Rocky, ascended them before his close match against Apollo Creed.

Trump's "red wall" runs along the eastern border of the United States. While it's not discussed as much, it holds just as much significance for his chances in the election. This wall begins in Pennsylvania and continues down through North Carolina and Georgia. If he manages to secure these states, he will achieve victory with a margin of two electoral votes, regardless of the results in other competitive regions.

This is why he has hosted five events in North Carolina over the past week.

The common thread among all these walls is Pennsylvania, which represents the most significant trophy in elections. Its nickname, the Keystone State, has never been more fitting.

Amid all the planning and tactics surrounding the electoral map, we can easily overlook the historical importance of this presidential election.

Harris and Trump embody contrasting perspectives on various aspects of the United States, including immigration, trade, cultural topics, and international relations.

The president elected for the next four years will have the power to influence the structure of the U.S. government, including the federal judiciary, potentially affecting the country for many years to come.

The political scene in the United States has undergone significant changes in the last four years, showing alterations in the demographic compositions of both major political parties.

The Republican Party from ten years ago was quite different from the populist version led by Trump today, which resonates much more with blue-collar and lower-income voters.

The foundation of the Democratic Party continues to be made up of young voters and people of color, but it has increasingly come to depend on affluent individuals and those with a college education.

The outcomes from Tuesday could provide further insight into how the significant changes in American politics, which have only been somewhat evident over the last eight years, are transforming the political landscape in the United States.

These changes could provide a benefit to one party or the other in upcoming competitions.

Not too many years back, during the 1970s and 1980s, Republicans were seen as having a firm grip on the presidency, as they consistently secured majorities in enough states to succeed in the electoral college.

While this election might seem like a close 50-50 race, it doesn’t imply that this is how American presidential politics will consistently look moving forward.