What to look for on US election night

Election day falls on Tuesday, but Americans may have to wait a bit longer to discover who their next president will be.

The speed at which Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could be declared the winner hinges on two key elements: the speed with which states tally their votes and the narrowness of the margin in the results. Every state has its own regulations governing the counting and handling of ballots.

As voting wraps up nationwide, starting with the east coast, and as results begin to emerge, various news organizations and media outlets will announce the winners for each state and the District of Columbia in the presidential race, along with the contests for the US Senate and House of Representatives. The Financial Times will share updates based on predictions from the Associated Press.

The key figure to watch on election night is 270, which represents the electoral votes required to secure the presidency. Brace yourself for a lengthy evening on Tuesday.

Will We Know The Winner Tonight?

Surveys indicate that the outcomes in competitive states are likely to be tight, which means it might take several days before a winner is announced. Additionally, certain states have slower processes for counting votes compared to others.

Another challenge that might arise is if there are legal disputes regarding the election results in a state, potentially delaying the announcement of who won. The Trump campaign and its supporters have begun questioning the reliability of the election process.

The Harris campaign anticipates that Trump will announce his victory even before the official results of the presidential election are in.

On election day, the initial polling stations in certain counties of Indiana and Kentucky will shut down at 6 PM Eastern Time. Meanwhile, the final polling locations will close at midnight Eastern Time in Alaska.

If battleground states promptly start counting votes and the outcome isn't as tight as surveys suggest, we might have a clear result by Tuesday night. Nevertheless, electoral analysts and state officials believe it's more probable that we'll see the results by Wednesday morning. In certain instances, finalizing the results can stretch over days or even weeks as absentee and mail-in ballots are tallied and sometimes recounted.

There will probably be a delay before we find out which party will dominate the two parts of Congress: the Senate and the House of Representatives.

According to the non-partisan Cook Political Report, there are four highly contested Senate races and 22 House races that are too close to call. The Senate landscape “likely indicates a [Republican] majority,” while the competition for the House “is as tight as it has ever been,” as noted by CPR’s Erin Covey.

Key States For Winning The Election

The key states to keep an eye on are the seven pivotal ones: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Together, they hold a total of 93 electoral college votes.

A presidential candidate doesn't have to win every swing state to secure victory. If Harris or Trump manages to win the key blue wall states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—along with North Carolina in a single night, they could quickly reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

North Carolina might be the first state to announce its election results, as the majority of voters cast their ballots in person and mail-in ballots need to be received by election day. This year, an unexpected factor is the effect of Hurricane Helene, which severely impacted the state.

Georgia has a speedy counting process, but the very narrow margin of just 11,779 votes in 2020 resulted in a manual recount. Consequently, it took over two weeks after the election for the state to be officially declared for Biden.

A strong performance in the blue states might suggest that a candidate is resonating with working-class voters, whereas a victory in Georgia could signal success in gaining support from Black voters.

Pennsylvania has a slower process because it isn't allowed to begin counting mail-in ballots until election day. Similarly, Wisconsin also waits until election day to start counting these ballots, but officials anticipate having results by Wednesday morning since they will continue counting overnight. In contrast, Michigan might be able to announce results faster than in the past because it can handle more mail-in ballots ahead of election day.

Arizona and Nevada are expected to take the longest to announce their election results. Officials in Arizona have indicated that it might take between 10 to 13 days to provide complete results. Meanwhile, in Nevada, a significant number of voters cast their ballots by mail.

Key Events Of 2020 Explained

Joe Biden was officially announced as the winner on Saturday, November 7, 2020, four days after the election took place. The Associated Press made this announcement at 11:26 AM Eastern Time.

The Associated Press started announcing election results at 7 PM on the day of the election, beginning with Kentucky. However, results from key competitive states took significantly longer to finalize. North Carolina wasn't declared until ten days after the election, while Georgia took an additional sixteen days.

Pennsylvania was the state that helped Biden secure his victory, while Georgia and North Carolina were still uncertain at that point. In total, Biden claimed victory in six of the key states this election, with Trump winning just North Carolina.

On January 6, 2021, as Congress was officially confirming the election results, a group of angry Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to disrupt the process and invalidate Biden's win. Democrats argue that this incident showcases the danger Trump poses to democracy should he win another term.

On November 9, 2016, at 2:29 AM Eastern Time, the Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner of the election against Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump's victory was secured largely by Wisconsin, even though the results in Arizona and Michigan remained uncertain.

What's New This Time Around?

The key distinction is that there isn't a pandemic.

In 2020, many individuals opted for early voting to steer clear of the risk of contracting Covid-19 at polling locations on election day.

This made it harder for state election officials to count the votes since many of them weren't accustomed to processing a high number of mail-in ballots. These ballots require extra time to count because they have to be opened and checked by election workers. Additionally, some states had social-distancing measures for election staff, which further delayed the counting process.

Up to this point, there have been fewer early voters—both those voting in person and those voting by mail—compared to the 2020 election. This trend may allow state election officials to handle the early ballots more easily, potentially leading to quicker results.