When will we know the result of the US presidential election?

For the past 25 years, people in the U.S. have often found themselves staying up late into the night, eagerly anticipating the moment when news outlets announce the crucial last state that determines who will become the president and who will hold power in Congress.

An event like this during the 2000 election night gave rise to the terminology we now use: Republican-leaning states are referred to as red states, while Democratic-leaning states are called blue states. This all unfolded as the nation tuned in to NBC, where Tim Russert, the host of Meet the Press, provided updates late into the night regarding the situation in Florida.

There's a very slim chance that we'll find out who won the presidential race on election night. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are nearly neck-and-neck in the polls, and it's highly probable that the outcome will depend on just a few key swing states.

When Will We Know The US Election Result?

It really depends on how narrow the results are. Four key states—Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—have absentee ballot processes that can take several days to finalize. However, if Harris manages to secure a clear victory in the other swing states, that could be sufficient to announce her as the winner. If the outcome is different, though, it will take more time to determine the final result.

Why Do US News Outlets Make The Call?

News outlets announce a winner, but they don't actually decide who the winner is. The true determination comes from officials in election offices who tally the votes and confirm the results. This certification process can take several days or even weeks following the election.

News outlets report that it is now clear from the statements made by election offices that the vote count results indicate a winner.

"Our benchmark is complete assurance," remarked David Scott, who leads news strategy and operations at the Associated Press. "We only announce a winner once we are entirely sure that the candidates behind have no chance of catching up."

The Guardian is aligning with the Associated Press in declaring the results of the election.

How Do News Outlets Make Their Decisions?

News outlets like the AP, CNN, NBC, ABC, and Fox News have a dedicated "decision desk" to forecast the progression of vote counting across different states on election night. Many of these organizations are increasingly depending on Decision Desk HQ, an independent group created specifically for this purpose.

"News outlets have become increasingly cautious about announcing early results, as they want to avoid having to retract their statements, similar to what happened in 2000," explained Mike Whener, an election studies professor at the University of Wisconsin.

The choices regarding when to make a call are determined by statisticians, rather than by news presenters.

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"It's not Sean Hannity who decides that," Whener explained. "And it's not Rupert Murdoch who makes the call right off the bat. It's the analysts present in the room who evaluate the situation and determine if the election results can be announced."

The timing of calls from various networks can vary since each one operates on its own system. Additionally, analysts may reach their conclusions at different moments.

When Did We Discover The 2020 Results?

Joe Biden was officially announced as the victor on Saturday, November 7, just four days after the election took place. That day, he reached the necessary number of electoral votes when news organizations declared him the winner in Pennsylvania and Nevada. While Michigan and Wisconsin were named the day after the election, Arizona's results weren’t announced until November 12, North Carolina's until November 13, and Georgia’s on November 19 following a recount.

Will Results Be Quicker Or Slower Than 2020?

The speed of results will vary by state based on the margins. Protect Democracy, a non-partisan organization, notes that we can generally expect quicker outcomes than in 2020, especially if a state has a margin of over 0.5%. This is because there will be many fewer mail-in ballots this time around, allowing for a faster counting process. Additionally, three states—Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan—have started allowing the processing of mail-in ballots before election day, unlike in 2020. Furthermore, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have set earlier deadlines for when mail-in ballots need to arrive compared to 2020.

In a recent report, Protect Democracy estimated that the results in Michigan and Wisconsin will be announced one day after the polls close, similar to the timeline in 2020. They also predict that Pennsylvania will report its results more quickly than in 2020, when it took four days. Nevada is expected to announce its results either in the same timeframe as 2020 or possibly sooner, also requiring four days in that election. Arizona is anticipated to follow the same pattern, with results being reported in the same time or faster than the nine days it took in 2020. Additionally, Protect Democracy believes North Carolina and Georgia will report their results more swiftly than they did in 2020.

What Can Extend Your Results?

If the difference in votes in a state is less than 0.5%, or if any states need a recount, the announcement of results may take longer. Typically, news organizations won't declare a winner in those states until the recount is completed.

According to McCoy, it’s highly improbable that Arizona and Nevada will have their results announced on election night. "That’s how it’s been for a long time in those states, so it’s not a surprise," he stated. Regarding other battlegrounds like Georgia, which was extremely tight in 2020, he mentioned that it will also take time. "In cases like that, there's no way you can predict a winner because it’s too close, so you just have to sit tight and wait for all the votes to be counted."

Pennsylvania faces unique difficulties since, by law, local election offices aren't allowed to start opening envelopes and counting mail-in ballots until election day itself. Similarly, Wisconsin, which is also a key swing state, has a comparable rule and might not have all the results available until early Wednesday morning.

Certain states allow absentee ballots to be counted for up to 10 days following election day. Among the swing states, Nevada stands out with a significant extension; it can receive mail-in ballots until the Saturday after election day, provided they are postmarked by November 5.

If there are disputes over which votes should be counted, it could postpone the announcement of results. Right now, there are several ongoing lawsuits in various swing states related to the processing of specific ballots, such as those that arrive late and those cast from overseas.

In situations similar to Florida's 2000 election, where just a few votes separate the candidates, the outcome could hinge on military absentee ballots and potentially provisional ballots. Generally, only around half of provisional ballots are validated, but in a tight contest, political teams will rush to track down those voters. Their goal is to "cure" these ballots, which typically means the voters need to provide proof of their identity and registration at an election office.

Which States Will Release Results First This Year?

News organizations are expected to announce results from a few east coast states initially, where one candidate clearly leads the other.

“It’s clear that certain states will likely be declared as soon as the polls close,” stated Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ. “There will also be some states where results will be announced shortly after the initial votes are counted, particularly if they align with previous trends.”

Understanding The 'Red Mirage' And 'Blue Shift'

The terms "red mirage" and "blue shift" describe the same situation where a Republican candidate seems to be ahead at the start of the night, but that advantage diminishes as additional votes are tallied.

In 2020, mail-in voting was predominantly utilized by Democrats, whereas Republicans preferred to cast their votes in person. The day after the election, around noon on Wednesday, Donald Trump was ahead by 11%. However, Joe Biden closed the gap over the next two days as election officials sorted through 2.7 million mail-in votes. Outlets like the AP were aware of the number of absentee ballots submitted and how many had been requested by registered Democrats. They chose not to declare Biden the winner until those votes were tallied.

As of the Friday before election day, Wisconsin had already collected over a million absentee ballots, and additional ones were still arriving.

According to Whener, in the two counties with the highest population, the counting of votes often extends until 1 or 2 in the morning. As a result, several hundred thousand ballots are tallied late at night, primarily in the two counties that lean most liberal in the state. In Wisconsin, it's common for Democrats to gain a significant number of votes during these late-night hours, as regulations prevent counting from beginning any earlier. This situation fuels conspiracy theories, even though everything is being handled according to the established rules.

In Arizona, the situation is quite different. They prioritize counting and reporting mail-in ballots that arrive before election day right at the start. For instance, in 2022, Democratic Senator Mark Kelly began the evening with a 20-point advantage over Republican Blake Masters. In the end, Kelly secured victory with a margin of five points.

However, mail-in ballots that arrive on election day cannot be counted until the polls have closed. In 2020, this represented a substantial figure – approximately 320,000 ballots just in Maricopa County.

Why Is Counting Votes So Complicated?

Just a quick note: in the presidential elections, the overall national popular vote doesn’t decide the outcome. Instead, each state tallies its votes on its own. There are two states, Nebraska and Maine, that do things differently. In most states, whoever wins takes all of the state's electoral votes. This goes on even if the winning margin is tiny, like the 537 votes out of roughly 6 million cast in Florida in 2000, or a much larger lead, like the 1.5 million votes Reagan claimed in California in 1984.

Every state is assigned a certain number of electors determined by how many congressional districts it contains, along with two extra votes that correspond to its Senate seats. Furthermore, Washington DC is allocated three electoral votes, even though it does not have any voting representatives in Congress.

To secure victory, a candidate needs to obtain 270 electoral votes.

In the 2020 election, Biden secured victory with a 51 to 47 percent split, translating to a lead of approximately 7 million votes. In terms of the Electoral College, he received 306 votes while his opponent garnered 232, winning roughly 57 percent of the electoral votes.

When Will We Know Congress's Power Shift?

As votes are tallied, individual congressional races will be announced. However, with 435 races happening nationwide, it's likely that a few will have results that are too close to determine on election night. McCoy noted that depending on how many of these races are uncertain, it may take a while to figure out which party will have control over Congress.

McCoy explained, "There are usually one or two contests that turn out to be extremely tight, leading to a recount or some similar procedure. The key is to patiently wait for the information and understand what it reveals, rather than jumping ahead of it. Our most important guideline is to never rush ahead of the data."