Far-right National Rally in reach of being dominant French party after election first round

Marine Le Pen's far-right, anti-immigration party is close to becoming the most influential political group in the French parliament following a record-breaking performance in the initial round of surprise parliamentary elections.

The political parties on the left and center are already urging people to strategically vote in order to prevent the far-right from winning in the final round of elections next Sunday. Exit polls showed that the National Rally (RN) had received around 34% of the national vote, putting them in first place, with the leftwing alliance in second and Emmanuel Macron's group far behind in third.

The RN received approximately 12 million votes, which is nearly three times the 4.2 million votes it received in the previous parliamentary election in 2022.

Le Pen expressed her thoughts after the voting had ended, stating that the French citizens have clearly shown their desire to move past the past seven years of Macron's presidency, which they found to be disrespectful and damaging. She mentioned that Macron's centrist parties had suffered significant losses to the RN, and that the RN is now aiming to achieve a majority of 289 seats in parliament, up from their current 88 seats.

This is still considered a difficult task, but if it occurs in the upcoming Sunday's important second round of voting, it will be the first instance in French history where a far-right party wins a parliamentary election and establishes a government. If this happens, Macron – who scheduled the election three weeks ago after being defeated by the RN in the European elections – would need to divide authority.

Similarly, the RN may secure the most seats but not achieve a majority. This could leave Macron facing a situation where he has a hung parliament, making it difficult to govern the EU's second largest economy and most powerful military force.

The New Popular Front (NFP), a group of leftist parties working together to oppose the far right, is believed to have received around 29% of the total votes.

"We only have seven days to prevent the far-right from taking control, so all those who support progress and human rights must unite in support of the New Popular Front," declared Clémentine Autain, a member of the France Unbowed party, ahead of the upcoming second round of elections.

Macron's centrist coalition did not do well, according to initial polls. They received a vote share ranging from 20.5% to 23%. While they were the largest party in parliament, they might now lose more than half of their seats and end up in third position.

The overall percentage of votes across the country shows a general idea of how people are voting, but it doesn't tell us exactly how the 577-seat parliament will be made up. We won't know for sure until the final round of voting on July 7th. Many districts will have to have a second round of voting.

Last Sunday evening, Jordan Bardella, a protege of Le Pen and the president of the party, expressed his desire to become the "prime minister for all French people". However, in cities like Paris, Lyon, Lille, Nantes, and Strasbourg, thousands of people participated in protests against his party. A significant number of people gathered at Place de la République in the capital city, where prominent figures in the left-wing coalition spoke out against the extreme right.

The success of the RN in gaining power will be determined by the political negotiations of other parties in the upcoming days. Historically, the traditional right and left parties have made deals to avoid competition and unite against the RN. However, the strategy of strategic voting, known as the "republican front," is now less reliable than before.

In a written announcement, Macron urged voters to support candidates who are "strongly committed to the values of the republic and democracy". This means that candidates from the RN and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Unbowed would likely not be included, but candidates from the NFP's more moderate left-wing parties would still be eligible.

During a speech, the prime minister, Gabriel Attal, repeated the same request, stating that if the National Rally is close to gaining power, candidates in third place should step down. He emphasized the importance of not giving any votes to the National Rally and highlighted the goal of stopping them from achieving a complete majority.

Mélenchon announced that the left coalition will remove any candidates who placed third in the initial round of voting. He emphasized that their main priority is to prevent any additional votes from going to the National Rally party.

Many RN members were chosen in the initial round of elections, including Marine Le Pen. In the north of France, Fabien Roussel, a prominent figure on the left, was defeated in the first round by Guillaume Florquin, the RN candidate.

The participation rate of over 69% was the highest in nearly four decades in a country that is becoming more divided. Macron warned that a victory by either the extreme right or extreme left could result in a "civil war" in France.

For many years, the Front National party, which was co-founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen, was seen as a threat to democracy due to its promotion of racist, antisemitic, and anti-Muslim beliefs. Politicians from the center and left tried to warn voters about the party's dark past, including the fact that some of its original members were part of a Waffen-SS unit during World War II. However, the party, now renamed, saw a rise in popularity after Marine Le Pen worked to make its policies more acceptable and improve its public image.

The party against immigration has maintained its long-standing belief known as "France for the French", or "national preference", which is now called "national priority". This means that if the RN was in charge, French citizens would be given priority over non-citizens for jobs, social welfare benefits, and housing. The party has promised to prevent dual nationals from holding certain important government positions in France. They also aim to eliminate nationality rights for children born and raised in France by parents from other countries.

Macron surprised and confused his own government and followers by announcing this month that he would dissolve parliament and hold snap elections. This decision came after his centrist, pro-European party was defeated by the RN in EU elections. He stated that he called for the vote to "clarify" the political situation in France.