Ranking every NBA team's roster continuity: Lakers, Rockets, 76ers and more
Neil Paine on September 3, 2024, at 12:35 PM
In sports, like the NBA, the idea of team "continuity" can be a tricky concept.
On the one side, it may not always lead to success to keep the same players on a team just for the sake of continuity. However, imagine a team that hasn't won a single game and decides to keep all the same players for the next season. It's unlikely that the team's manager will receive a lot of praise for this decision. It's common knowledge that constant changes within a team, including players, coaches, front-office staff, and other important individuals, are often the reason why losing teams struggle to improve.
In my past studies, I found that teams with more chaos in key positions tend to perform poorly in the future, even when taking into account their overall skill level.
Finding the right balance between keeping a team as it is and making strategic changes can be crucial.
Considering this, we have determined the level of consistency for each NBA team, ranging from those with the most returning players to those who have completely rebuilt their roster. To assess this, we will examine a team's overall standing based on two factors: the percentage of minutes played and the share of estimated RAPTOR wins above replacement (WAR) for the team over the past three seasons. These rankings will be weighted by recency, with more weight given to recent seasons (6 for last season, 4 for the year before, and 1 for two years ago) for players currently on the team.
NBA teams that have a high ranking in each share have the most consistency because they have retained more players who have contributed to the team's success in recent seasons, especially in 2023-24.
We will reveal our final ranking, which is calculated by adding up the rankings in all categories. Then, we will explore the best and worst five teams, including the top players for each team (based on their three-year weighted WAR contribution) who will and will not be on the team in 2024-25.
Navigate to: Highest consistency | Lowest consistency Complete rankings for each of the 30 NBA teams
"Top Teams With Continuity"
Percentage of returning players who played for three years: 75.7% (ranking third) Percentage of returning players' Wins Above Replacement (WAR) over three years: 94.4% (ranking second)
Top players returning include Fred VanVleet with a 23.0% return rate, Alperen Sengun with 14.4%, Amen Thompson with 13.1%, Jalen Green with 9.9%, and Tari Eason with 9.3%. On the other hand, top players leaving the team are Kenyon Martin Jr. with a return rate of 4.5%, Kevin Porter Jr. with 2.6%, and Eric Gordon with 1.4%.
Even though the Rockets didn't reach the playoffs last year, they showed improvement in their performance compared to the previous season. Their net rating increased by 9.0 points per 100 possessions. Despite having one of the youngest teams in the NBA with an average age of 25.9, the Rockets demonstrated a successful strategy to move on from a period of intentionally losing games. They combined experienced players like VanVleet with young emerging talents like Green, Sengun, and Thompson in a way that could be a blueprint for other teams in similar situations.
Houston aims to maintain this positive trajectory in the upcoming season, with the Rockets welcoming back all of their top 12 players who have earned the most wins above replacement (WAR). This core group accounts for 76% of the team's total minutes played over the past three years and an impressive 94% of its total WAR during that time frame.
Percentage of players who are coming back for three years: 77.1% (2nd place) Percentage of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) returning over three years: 91.0% (4th place)
Top returning players: Franz Wagner with 27.0%, Jalen Suggs with 13.3%, Paolo Banchero with 11.5%, Jonathan Isaac with 9.0%, and Moritz Wagner with 8.1%. Top players leaving the team: Joe Ingles with 5.9%, Markelle Fultz with 4.8%, and Mo Bamba with 1.3%.
The fact that the top two teams in consistency in the NBA have been the youngest (with an average age of 25.4) in recent years might not be a coincidence. Both Houston and Orlando have focused on developing their young players and have seen significant improvement as a result. These teams have built strong cores around players like Wagner, who signed a lucrative contract extension in July, and Banchero, the 2022 NBA Rookie of the Year and an All-Star last season.
However, Orlando will bring back Suggs, Isaac, and Moritz Wagner, who were among the team's top five players based on their performance last season. The only player from the Magic's top 10 by performance in the 2023-24 season who will not be returning is Ingles, as he signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves during the offseason. This means that most of the core group that helped Orlando's impressive improvement from 21 wins in 2020-21 to 47 wins (along with a playoff appearance) last season will be continuing with the team going forward.
Percentage of players with three years of experience returning: 80.6% (1st) Percentage of wins above replacement (WAR) returning from players with three years of experience: 89.5% (6th)
Top players returning include Jayson Tatum with 21.8%, Derrick White with 15.7%, Jaylen Brown with 14.1%, Al Horford with 7.3%, and Sam Hauser with 7.2%. Players leaving the team include Marcus Smart with 3.0%, Robert Williams III with 2.7%, and Malcolm Brogdon with 2.0%.
One of the main stories of the Celtics' championship season in 2023-24 was Brad Stevens, who made bold moves by trading important players like Smart and Williams from their core team. However, the success of Boston can also be attributed to the steady presence of Tatum and Brown, who have been playing together for seven years and finally reaped the rewards of their hard work.
This is one reason why the Celtics are ranked high, as they will have many returning players with significant playing time from the past three seasons in 2024-25. Boston will also have all of their top 11 players in Win Above Replacement (WAR) from last season back for their title defense; the only player missing will be Svi Mykhailiuk (1.0 WAR), who provided more than 0.1 wins for the team last year.
OKC Thunder: A Basketball Team From Oklahoma City
Percentage of players from the previous three years returning: 70.4% (6th place) Percentage of wins above replacement from the previous three years returning: 92.3% (3rd place)
Top returning players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (35.7%), Jalen Williams (16.1%), Chet Holmgren (9.4%), Luguentz Dort (8.5%), Isaiah Joe (7.2%) Notable departures: Josh Giddey (8.5%), Lindy Waters III (1.2%), Isaiah Roby (0.4%)
Let's talk about another up-and-coming team, the Thunder, whose average age is 24.5 years old. They were one of the standout stories of last season, although they fell short in the playoffs. Despite that, Oklahoma City managed to secure the top seed in the West thanks to the impressive performances of Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been playing at an MVP level at 25 years old. They also had great support from players like Williams and Holmgren.
The majority of the main group of players will be returning for the Thunder next season. Nine out of the top 10 players based on performance are coming back, with the exception of Giddey. Giddey was traded to the Chicago Bulls in exchange for Alex Caruso in June. Caruso had a higher performance rating last year, with a WAR of 5.8 compared to Giddey's 3.8.
The LA Lakers
Percentage of players returning with three years of experience: 65.7% (ranked 10th) Percentage of players returning with three years of Wins Above Replacement (WAR): 94.8% (ranked 1st)
Top players coming back: LeBron James with a 34.0% return rate, Anthony Davis with 31.4%, Austin Reaves with 15.2%, D'Angelo Russell with 11.1%, and Rui Hachimura with 7.1%. Notable players leaving: Thomas Bryant with a 1.8% departure rate, Troy Brown Jr. with 1.7%, and Malik Monk with 1.5%.
When we look at the teams led by LeBron James in different cities like Cleveland, Miami, and Los Angeles, we notice that there have been many changes in the players around him. It's surprising to see the Lakers as one of the most consistent teams for the upcoming season, with all seven top performers from last season returning. Not only that, but they also have the highest percentage of top performers returning compared to other teams in the past three years.
Some people may argue whether this is a positive development or not. Los Angeles has been dominated by the Denver Nuggets in the last two playoffs. Apart from Reaves, the Lakers have lacked enough high-caliber players to stand out alongside James and Davis at the premier level of competition. Despite this, they are opting to bring back almost the same group of players to give it another shot.
What is the main challenge JJ Redick must overcome as he takes on the role of coach for the Lakers?
Seth Greenberg examines the challenges that JJ Redick will need to overcome as the coach of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Least Consistent Teams
Percentage of players returning after three years: 45.7% (ranked 28th) Percentage of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) returning after three years: -2.1% (ranked 30th)
Top players coming back: Corey Kispert with 6.7%, Jared Butler with 3.4%, and Marvin Bagley III with 2.4%. Top players leaving: Deni Avdija at 20.5%, Kristaps Porzingis at 17.0%, Daniel Gafford at 16.3%, Delon Wright at 13.9%, and Bradley Beal at 13.4%.
The Wizards are at a unique stage of rebuilding compared to the younger teams on our list. Washington is struggling to establish a group of key players to build upon. In the upcoming season, only Butler will return out of the team's top six WAR earners from last year. This highlights the fact that the Wizards are the only NBA team with a negative percentage of three-year WAR players coming back.
How can this be? Many of the team's players who came back were not performing well, with Jordan Poole (-3.3%), Bilal Coulibaly (-5.3%), and Johnny Davis (-7.1%) all producing below replacement level for the past three seasons. The situation worsened when Avdija, the team's top player in terms of three-year weighted WAR percentage, was traded to the Portland Trail Blazers in July.
Percentage of players returning after three years: 41.9% (ranking 29th) Percentage of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) returning after three years: 40.2% (ranking 27th)
Top players coming back: Scottie Barnes (27.1%), Jakob Poeltl (10.1%), Chris Boucher (7.9%) Key players leaving: Pascal Siakam (24.2%), Gary Trent Jr. (16.3%), OG Anunoby (16.1%), Fred VanVleet (12.6%), Dennis Schroder (5.0%)
Deciding to leave behind the leftovers of their championship team, the Raptors are now one of the least consistent teams in the league. They have said goodbye to key players like Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, and Trent, resulting in a significant decrease in their overall performance.
In contrast to Washington, the Raptors can say they are re-signing players who could play a role in Toronto's future championship team, such as Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley - the last two of whom were obtained from the New York Knicks in a trade that involved Anunoby leaving. Regardless of whether the rest of the team stays the same or not, it's beneficial to have those foundational players available.
Percentage of 3-year minutes coming back: 33.1% (ranked 30th) Percentage of 3-year WAR coming back: 51.2% (ranked 26th)
Top players returning: Joel Embiid (24.8%), Tyrese Maxey (18.8%), Kelly Oubre Jr. (4.9%) Top players leaving: Tobias Harris (15.0%), De'Anthony Melton (9.6%), James Harden (6.8%), Paul Reed (5.4%), Nicolas Batum (3.1%)
When it comes to having a consistent team, the Sixers are showing that having fewer continuity isn't always a negative thing. Philadelphia is ranked low because only three of its top nine players from the past season are still on the team. This means they have lost a significant amount of their overall value and playing time compared to other teams in the league.
Despite the challenges faced by the Sixers, they are still considered a strong contender for the title with the third-best odds of winning according to ESPN BET. This is mainly due to the return of key players like Embiid and Maxey and the addition of free agent Paul George to enhance their roster. The team's win total is predicted to be at 52.5 for the season.
Percentage of players returning after three years: 47.1% (ranked 26th) Percentage of total wins above replacement (WAR) returning after three years: 35.7% (ranked 28th)
Top returnees: Nic Claxton with a 15.1% average, Cameron Johnson with 8.2%, and Cam Thomas with 5.0%. Top losses: Mikal Bridges at 16.6%, Kevin Durant at 11.9%, Kyrie Irving at 7.0%, Royce O'Neale at 6.6%, and Spencer Dinwiddie at 6.2%.
The goal of this exercise is to find teams that have changed a lot in recent years. The Nets are a prime example, as they used to have star players like Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden, but now they are focusing on developing players like Claxton, Johnson, and Thomas. They traded Bridges to the Knicks for draft picks and other assets, completely changing their team dynamic.
The Nets have lost their identity and most of their valuable players from the last three seasons are now playing for other teams. This has left the Nets without a sense of consistency.
Percentage of players returning after 3 years: 49.9% (25th) Percentage of WAR returning after 3 years: 56.9% (25th)
Top returning players: Miles Bridges with a shooting percentage of 28.0%, LaMelo Ball at 25.7%, and Mark Williams with 15.4%. Key players lost include Terry Rozier shooting at 38.8%, Gordon Hayward at 19.8%, Kelly Oubre Jr. at 12.2%, Mason Plumlee at 9.8%, and Jalen McDaniels at 7.1%.
The Hornets are in a special position in terms of team consistency. If we only consider last season, their position wouldn't be as low as it is now. Charlotte will have four out of their top five players in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) back for the upcoming season (Bridges, Ball, Williams, and Brandon Miller), along with seven out of their top nine players overall. The only key players missing will be Rozier, who was traded to Miami, and Gordon Hayward, who was traded to Oklahoma City and later retired.
However, keep in mind that this list covers multiple years, with a focus on recent seasons. Charlotte has significantly changed its roster since the 2021-22 season, where they had 43 wins. As a result, Jeff Peterson, the new president of basketball operations, is now in charge of building a strong core for the future.
