What is next for Syria after Assad’s fall?

After over a year of continuous warfare in the Middle East, the unexpected surrender of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government will be remembered as one of the most surprising events in the region's history.

In a mere 12 days, rebel forces advanced from both the north and south, reaching the center of Damascus and seizing the capital. This swift action brought an end to the Assad family's decades-long reign, which had lasted over 50 years. Remarkably, they accomplished in less than two weeks what countless armed opposition groups could not achieve during 13 long years of brutal civil conflict.

Moscow and Tehran, the primary supporters of Assad, were either incapable or reluctant to intervene, as they were preoccupied with their own struggles: Russia was focused on Ukraine, while Iran and its allies were engaged in a prolonged conflict with Israel that has lasted 14 months.

In numerous respects, the dramatic collapse of the regime seems to be an unintended outcome of Israel's fierce responses to its adversaries following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The past year has dismantled established standards in the region, creating a volatile and unpredictable atmosphere.

For several months, Israeli forces have been conducting air strikes in Syria, targeting and killing Iranian commanders and their allied fighters. They have also been striking facilities associated with Iran and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that supported Assad's regime throughout the civil war.

Above all, the swift attack by the rebels highlighted the precarious state of Assad's shattered and corrupt government.

Assad took over from his father, Hafez al-Assad, in 2000 and became a harsh dictator. During the civil war, he employed some of the most horrific tactics to suppress his enemies. These included the use of chemical weapons, barrel bombs, blockades that led to starvation, widespread arrests, torture, and killings.

Over 12 million individuals, which is about half of the entire population, have had to leave their homes due to ten years of conflict. Additionally, there are over 100,000 people classified as "disappeared," meaning they were taken by security forces and their current locations remain unknown.

As the corrupt government drained the country's resources, even members of his own Alawite community—who had sacrificed their sons in Assad's conflict against the citizens—became disheartened and lost hope after years of worsening economic and social problems.

The end of Assad's rule will be celebrated by the countless individuals who endured hardship during his governance. His unwillingness to engage in dialogue or seek a political solution with his rivals prevented any chance of stabilizing the nation and changing its future direction.

However, the overwhelming joy will be accompanied by caution regarding what lies ahead.

The assault was spearheaded by the strongest rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that previously had ties to al-Qaeda and is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the United States, and various other countries. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who has openly expressed his ambition to take control of Damascus and now seems to be the principal decision-maker, was once involved with the jihadist group ISIS and has a $10 million bounty on his head from the US.

In the six years that HTS has governed the northwestern region of Idlib with a civilian-led administration, they have tried to reshape their image as a more moderate Islamist organization. However, they continue to exercise strict control, and various UN agencies have reported instances of wrongdoing.

If 42-year-old Jolani achieves his goal of gaining power, it will lead to dilemmas for Western nations and global organizations regarding their approach to interacting with him and HTS.

However, HTS is just one of many opposition groups that have emerged from the original uprising and participated in the attack. Historically, these different factions have often been at odds with one another.

In the recent military campaign, there was teamwork between HTS and Turkish-supported factions associated with the Syrian National Army, as well as other groups that surrounded Damascus from the southern area.

The true challenge will arise when the different groups try to divide the rewards and power that come with their success.

Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian analyst, expressed relief that the uprising seems to have been well-organized among HTS and other factions. He referred to the attack on the regime as a "planned dismantling strategy."

Abdeh remarked that while there is a feeling of happiness and pride, it is also mixed with a concern about potential violence, leading to the belief that things might be too good to last. However, he noted that there is an evident strategy in place, which has been communicated clearly by HTS and Jolani, providing a sense of reassurance to many individuals.

In addition to the Sunni Muslim rebel factions, there are Kurdish-led forces that the US has supported in the battle against Isis, who hold a significant portion of northeastern Syria.

Turkey views them as an extension of Kurdish separatists who have been in conflict with the Turkish government for many years.

For several years, Turkish forces have been stationed in northern Syria to counter Kurdish fighters and their connections with Sunni rebel factions. As a result, Turkey has become one of the most influential players in the region, and it will be crucial in shaping the future developments there.

Turkey, on the other hand, has a complicated and sometimes uncomfortable relationship with HTS, which it has classified as a terrorist group.

In the meantime, the United States has roughly 900 soldiers stationed in the country to assist in the battle against ISIS.

Alongside the danger of conflicts between rival rebel groups, there are concerns that ISIS, which previously held significant territory in northern and northeastern Syria, may try to take advantage of the disorder to regain power.

Minority communities throughout Syria, which has historically been one of the most secular nations in the region—something that has benefited Assad, who is also from a minority group—are likely feeling anxious about the future. Syria's population is a mosaic of various tribes, religions, and sects.

During the military campaign, Jolani, a sophisticated and practical leader, made efforts to connect with various tribes and former adversaries. He negotiated surrender deals and also ensured the safety of minority groups.

Nearby countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon are likely to exercise caution, along with Gulf nations that have recently reconnect with Assad and consider Islamist movements as threats to stability.

Syria's neighbors benefited from having Assad in a weakened position, and Israel has consistently aimed to remove Iran and Hezbollah from its northern border. However, there are worries about the possibility of a weak, unstable state in turmoil, dominated by extremist groups.

In 2011, a wave of popular protests against oppressive governments surged through the Middle East, bringing a sense of hope to the area. However, this feeling was short-lived.

Syria plunged into a destructive civil war. Meanwhile, in Egypt, the military took control in a coup supported by the public, just two years after the long-serving president, Hosni Mubarak, was ousted. The country is now under one of the most repressive governments in the region.

In Libya, there was a brief period where democracy seemed possible, but then competing armed groups began fighting among themselves. As a result, the North African country is still divided and in turmoil.

Now that Assad has been removed, Syria's main challenge is figuring out how to steer clear of the troubles and disasters that have affected other countries following the downfall of their dictators. The country must also begin the tough journey of rebuilding and finding common ground among its people.