Syria analysis: Damascus now in rebels' crosshairs

Damascus And Assad: Targets Of Syrian Rebels

Rebel forces have captured Hama, an important city on the route to the capital, Damascus.

The pace at which the situation in Syria, despite being unresolved and disappointing, has shifted dramatically in recent days has been remarkable.

Despite insurgent fighters entering Hama, Syrian government officials and their supporters continued to insist that the army would maintain control in the city.

Soon after, the Syrian military confirmed that it had withdrawn from Hama, marking the first time that rebel groups took control of the city.

Following their takeover of two significant cities in just one week, the next objective for the insurgents, who are part of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is Homs.

Hundreds of thousands of individuals are leaving the city in preparation for what seems to be the upcoming significant conflict.

The situation has become significantly more critical for President Bashar al-Assad and his major supporters, Russia and Iran.

Homs holds a much greater strategic importance compared to both Aleppo and Hama. It sits at a crucial intersection, providing routes that head west towards the core of support for the Assad regime and south towards the capital city, Damascus.

Regardless of HTS's past strategy while it worked for years to establish its influence in the north-western province of Idlib, the developments of the last week appear to be pushing towards a direct confrontation with Assad's ongoing leadership.

During a CNN interview, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani acknowledged that the rebels are indeed focused on toppling the Assad government.

The spotlight is now on whether the Syrian leader can withstand this latest effort to oust him from his position.

The Syrian military, primarily composed of drafted soldiers, could have faced defeat in the war long ago if it weren't for the assistance provided by outside powers to support Assad.

Soldiers receive insufficient pay, lack proper equipment, and frequently struggle with low morale, leading to a persistent problem with people leaving their posts.

After his forces struggled to maintain control of Aleppo and then Hama, Assad announced a 50% salary increase for soldiers. However, this move is probably not enough to change the situation significantly.

Russian aircraft provided support to Syrian troops in Hama, but it was evident that their assistance wasn't significant enough to create a notable effect.

The absence of comprehensive military backing from Russia has led to theories that Moscow might not be able to make as significant an impact as it did in Syria in 2015. This is largely attributed to nearly three years of conflict in Ukraine, which has exhausted its supply of troops and military equipment.

However, Russia has strong motivations to continue backing Assad. President Putin's significant and comprehensive military involvement not only kept the Syrian leader in office during a critical time but also highlighted the shortcomings of Western allies, especially the United States, in fulfilling their commitments to assist the rebels.

A rebel soldier shooting at a banner featuring Assad in Hama on Thursday.

For many years, Russia has operated a naval base in the Syrian port city of Tartus, which serves as its sole military station in the Mediterranean region. Should the rebels manage to capture Homs, it could create a pathway to the Syrian coastline, jeopardizing the security of the base.

It still seems improbable that Russia wouldn't feel the need, both politically and strategically, to redirect its military strength towards the rebels in order to maintain Assad's rule, even if that means he only governs a significantly smaller part of Syria, much less than the 60% he currently holds.

Another significant uncertainty revolves around Iran and the militias it supports, such as Hezbollah, along with the military assistance it has offered. This support has played a crucial role in maintaining Assad's hold on power.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, who assumed leadership following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah by Israel, has announced that the group will support the Syrian government in the face of what he calls jihadist attacks driven by the US and Israel.

However, following the significant losses in its leadership and the fact that its fighters are still in the process of reorganizing after the recent Israeli ground and air attacks in Lebanon, Hezbollah might not be nearly as strong as it was during its earlier confrontations with Syrian rebel groups.

Nonetheless, it is evident that the organization remains dedicated to fulfilling its role. Security officials in Lebanon and Syria report that elite units from Hezbollah have entered Syria and established themselves in Homs.

Individuals have evacuated regions where clashes are occurring between rebel groups and government troops.

Tehran appears to be stepping back from both direct and indirect conflicts in the region, which is a marked shift from the more aggressive approach it has taken in recent years.

This might reduce its willingness to offer the extensive military support for Assad that it has given in the past.

There has been talk that militias in Iraq supported by Iran might get involved, but both the Iraqi government and prominent Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr have cautioned against this.

Assad's ability to stay in power will rely not just on the strength of his military and important partners, but also on the current splits among the different factions that are against him.

In addition to HTS and the groups in Idlib, there are the Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, the Turkish-supported Syrian National Army in the north, and several other factions that still maintain influence in different areas of the country.

One of these groups is the Islamic State (IS), which might use the current conflict to expand its influence beyond the isolated desert areas where it still maintains a presence.

Rebels have emerged from the northwestern region of Syria and are moving southward towards the capital.

The inability of the rebel groups to come together was crucial for Assad's continued hold on power. He and his allies are likely optimistic that circumstances will unfold similarly this time around.

At the moment, backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as the best option among limited choices continues to be maintained by various minority groups, including the Alawite community, which is the president's own sect.

They are worried about what they perceive as a militant group trying to seize control of their communities. Although HTS has distanced itself from al-Qaeda, many people still regard it as an extremist organization.

Ultimately, Assad's future appears to depend largely on the decisions made by the key external parties involved in Syria.

Russia, Iran, and Turkey have previously reached deals regarding conflict areas in Syria, particularly in Idlib four years back. However, the sudden and unexpected rise in tensions in Syria may have taken all of them by surprise.

They might soon need to reevaluate and decide what aligns best with their priorities—whether they prefer a Syria under Assad's leadership or one without him.