Lyse Doucet: HTS leader not only player in Syria's fast-changing future

"One insider described the atmosphere among Arab foreign ministers who arrived in Doha on Saturday evening for critical discussions as anxious due to concerns over the Islamists. Their aim was to prevent a descent into chaos and violence in Damascus."

Just a few hours later, the influential Islamist organization that propelled the rebels to power announced that they had arrived in the heart of the Syrian capital.

The head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammad al-Jowlani, proudly declared that he had "taken Damascus." In a shift that reflects his newfound prominence on a national scale, he is now publicly going by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, instead of his alias.

He is bound to have a significant influence in shaping Syria's new landscape following the abrupt and shocking conclusion to more than fifty years of oppressive governance by the Assad family. However, the leader of a group banned by both the UN and western nations isn't the sole important figure in Syria's rapidly changing situation.

"The outcome is still uncertain," warns Marie Forestier, a senior advisor on Syria at the European Institute of Peace. Along with other knowledgeable attendees at the annual Doha Forum, she highlights that it was another rebel faction, now known as the Southern Operations Room, that collaborated with local residents to advance into the capital. This group primarily consists of fighters from the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), who had allied with Western nations during the early days of Syria's 2011 uprising.

"The game begins now," is how Ms. Forestier refers to the beginning of this significant new chapter, which is filled with lively celebrations in the streets, yet also raises important questions about what will come next.

As the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) advanced rapidly with little opposition, it prompted rebel forces from different parts of Syria to mobilize quickly. This also led to a rise in local armed groups eager to get involved in their own regions.

"According to Thomas Juneau, a Middle East specialist at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, currently in Doha, opposing the Assad government served as the unifying force for this informal coalition."

"With Assad now gone, maintaining solidarity among the factions that removed him will prove difficult," he notes.

The coalition consists of a broad alliance of Turkish-backed militias referred to as the Syrian National Army, which, similar to the HTS, has a significant presence in northwest Syria. Meanwhile, in the northeast, the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) have made progress and are committed to maintaining their territory.

However, the prominent and ambitious leader of HTS has captured attention. His statements and past actions are now being closely examined by the Syrian people, as well as by officials in nearby countries and even further afield. This commander, whose militia initially emerged as an Al-Qaeda affiliate, distanced himself from the group in 2016 and has been working to improve his image since that time. For years, he has conveyed messages of goodwill to the international community; now, he is reassuring the various minority groups in Syria that they have nothing to fear.

Ms. Forestier expresses a careful acceptance of his messages. "However, we must not overlook the previous eight years of his authoritarian leadership and his history." HTS, which operates as both a political and military group in the conservative region of Idlib, established a functioning administration known as the Salvation Government. While it allowed for some religious freedoms, it was also characterized by oppressive actions.

In Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria, which was the first urban location captured by HTS during their rapid offensive, the group's fighters have been working to demonstrate their ability to govern effectively.

The group has been communicating calming messages to nations such as Iraq, assuring them that the conflict will not extend into their territories. Meanwhile, neighboring countries like Jordan are concerned that victories by Islamist factions nearby could inspire their own discontented militant groups. Turkey, which is expected to be significantly involved, has its own concerns. It views the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a terrorist organization associated with the PKK, a Kurdish group that Turkey has outlawed. If Turkey feels its interests are at risk, it will not hesitate to take military and political action, as it has done in the past.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, stated at the Doha Forum on Saturday that it is unacceptable for a group he referred to as terrorists, clearly indicating HTS, to gain power in Syria.

By evening, Geir Pederson, the UN's Special Envoy for Syria, informed me that there was a "fresh awareness of a new situation."

Regional foreign ministers, including Iran and Russia, who were previously strong supporters of President Assad, are taken aback by this unexpected development. They continue to advocate for the need to create a comprehensive political process. This sentiment is also expressed by Mr. Pedersen.

"This troubled period has created lasting wounds, yet today we approach the future with a cautious sense of optimism as we anticipate the dawn of a new era—an era defined by peace, healing, respect, and inclusiveness for all Syrians," he stated following his discussions in Doha, where conference rooms filled with high-ranking diplomats, academics, and officials from around the globe are alive with the latest updates from Syria.

Numerous analysts in this region appear hesitant to make hasty judgments regarding the type of leadership that will arise in a nation recognized for its variety of Christian and Muslim denominations.

"I’m not ready to explore that line of thought just yet," commented a Western diplomat when asked about potential worries concerning a strict Islamist-led regime. "We're still in the early stages with HTS, which has carried out a non-violent takeover."

Juneau concurs, saying, "At this moment, it’s important to take a moment to recognize the significant downfall of one of the most oppressive regimes in recent history."