Lyse Doucet: HTS leader not only player in Syria's fast-changing future

"They came here concerned about the Islamists," is how one insider characterized the feelings of Arab foreign ministers who landed in Doha on Saturday night for urgent discussions intended to prevent a descent into chaos and violence in Damascus.

Just a few hours later, the influential Islamist faction that propelled the rebels to power announced they had arrived at the heart of the Syrian capital.

Abu Mohammad al-Jowlani, the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams, proudly declared that Damascus has been "captured." In a departure from his alias, he now goes by his actual name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, reflecting his newfound prominence on the national stage.

He will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping Syria's new landscape following the abrupt and remarkable conclusion of the Assad family's 50-year oppressive regime. However, the head of a group banned by the UN and Western nations isn’t the only key figure in the rapidly evolving situation in Syria.

"The outcome is still uncertain," warns Marie Forestier, a senior advisor on Syria at the European Institute of Peace. Along with other knowledgeable participants at the annual Doha Forum, she notes that it was a different rebel group, recently referred to as the Southern Operations Room, collaborating with local residents, that advanced into the capital. This group is largely made up of fighters from the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), who had allied with Western nations during the initial stages of Syria's uprising in 2011.

"The game begins," is how Ms. Forestier characterizes the opening of this significant new phase, which is filled with lively celebrations in the streets, yet also raises important questions about what will come next.

As the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) advanced rapidly and encountered little opposition, it triggered a wave of movements among rebel forces in different parts of Syria, along with an increase in local armed groups eager to take action in their own communities.

"The struggle against the Assad regime was the common bond that united this informal coalition," states Thomas Juneau, a Middle East specialist at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, who is currently in Doha.

"With Assad now gone, maintaining solidarity among the various factions that overthrew him will be difficult," he notes.

The various factions consist of a coalition of Turkish militias referred to as the Syrian National Army, which, similar to the HTS, has established control over a part of northwest Syria. Meanwhile, in the northeast, the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) have also made progress and are committed to maintaining their advancements.

However, the prominent and ambitious leader of HTS has taken center stage. His statements and past actions are now being closely examined by Syrians, as well as by leaders in neighboring countries and beyond. The commander, who originally led a militia that was linked to Al-Qaeda, distanced himself from the jihadist organization in 2016 and has been working to improve his image ever since. For years, he has been delivering friendly messages to the international community; now, he is reassuring the various minority groups in Syria that they should not feel threatened.

HTS chief al-Jawlani has been refining his public persona since he distanced himself from Al-Qaeda back in 2016.

Ms. Forestier expresses a reserved approval of his statements, noting, "However, we must not overlook the last eight years of his authoritarian leadership and his history." HTS, which operates as both a political and paramilitary group in the conservative region of Idlib, established an administrative body known as the Salvation Government. This government offered some religious freedoms but also imposed strict controls and restrictions.

In Aleppo, Syria's second largest city and the first place captured by HTS during its rapid offensive, the group's fighters are working to demonstrate that they are capable of governing.

The group has been communicating comforting messages to nations such as Iraq, assuring them that the conflict would remain contained. Other neighboring countries, like Jordan, are concerned that Islamist victories nearby might inspire unhappy militant factions within their own territories. Turkey, which is expected to be a significant player in this situation, has its own set of concerns. It views the SDF as a terrorist organization connected to the PKK Kurdish group, which Turkey has classified as a terrorist entity. As it has done in the past, Turkey will not hesitate to take military or political action if it feels its interests are at risk.

In the hours following the collapse of the regime, the atmosphere in the streets of Damascus was filled with joy and excitement.

On Saturday at the Doha Forum, Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, stated that it was "unacceptable" for a group he referred to as terrorists, obviously indicating HTS, to gain power in Syria.

By the end of the day, Geir Pederson, the UN's Special Envoy for Syria, shared with me that there was a "fresh awareness of a new situation."

Foreign ministers from various regions, including Iran and Russia, who were once strong supporters of President Assad, are caught off guard by this unexpected situation. They continue to urge the need for a comprehensive political dialogue. Mr. Pedersen shares this perspective as well.

"This difficult period has created lasting wounds, but now we gaze ahead with careful optimism towards the start of a new era—an era characterized by peace, healing, respect, and inclusion for all Syrians," he stated following his discussions in Doha, where venues filled with high-ranking diplomats, academics, and officials from around the globe are alive with updates about Syria.

Many people here appear hesitant to make hasty judgments about the type of leadership that will come to the forefront in a nation recognized for its variety of Christian and Muslim groups.

"I’m not ready to delve into that way of thinking just yet," said a Western diplomat when asked about worries surrounding a strict Islamist regime. "We're only at the beginning of our engagement with HTS, which has taken control without violence."

Juneau is on the same page. "At this moment, it's valuable to recognize and appreciate the significant downfall of one of the most oppressive regimes in recent history," he stated.