Analysts: North Korea Seeks to Dominate South Korea Through Nuclear Coercion

Many respected experts are expressing skepticism regarding a heavily referenced piece claiming that North Korea has resolved to initiate conflict against South Korea. These analysts propose that Pyongyang's aggressive increase in military resources is probably aimed at acquiring power over the South by means of coercion.

On Tuesday, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that North Korea had carried out its third cruise missile test since Jan. 14th. The missile launch occurred off the west coast of the country. Prior to this, the North Korean regime had tested a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Following the launch on January 14th, the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, announced that they would no longer actively pursue reunification with South Korea. Instead, he instructed his country to prepare to take control of South Korea in the event of a war.

Earlier this month, two well-known individuals who closely monitor North Korea stated that they have reason to believe that Kim has already made a careful decision to initiate a war against South Korea.

According to experts Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, they reckon that Kim made the choice after concluding that there was no success in mending ties with the United States. They mentioned that Kim had suffered a significant embarrassment when ex-President Donald Trump abruptly left a summit in Hanoi in 2019. This has caused him to feel a great amount of shame and dishonor.

Carlin, who used to be in charge of the Northeast Asia Division at the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, together with Hecker, who used to run the Los Alamos National Laboratory, released their article on Jan. 11. The article was published on a website called 38North, which concentrates on North Korea.

However, some experts argue that even though North Korea has been increasing its aggressive behavior, it is not preparing itself for an immediate conflict against South Korea.

David Maxwell, who is the vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, stated that he does not foresee a purposeful choice to engage in warfare occurring within the upcoming month or year.

Maxwell stated that he thinks North Korea's objective, at the moment, is to utilize strategic political tactics to acquire control of Seoul by influencing the South Korean government and the general public to become supportive of the North.

Bruce Bennett, who works as a defense analyst for the Rand Corporation, has stated that a military effort to take control of South Korea may not be entirely impossible. However, he also believes that North Korea's aim in creating and experimenting with missile and nuclear technology is meant to intimidate the city of Seoul.

According to Bennett, Kim aims to become the master of the South Korean government, not through forceful takeover but by exerting pressure and control. Bennett thinks that Kim wants to gain the power to extract funds from the South and influence its policies that undermine his leadership.

According to Bennett, the objectives will likely involve preventing the spread of South Korea's cultural impact on North Korea, including the widespread popularity of K-pop and K-dramas. These forms of entertainment are known to cross over into North Korean society, but Kim's government has taken a strict stance on them and have imprisoned or even put to death those caught consuming South Korean media.

A comparable evaluation was published in the U.S. National Intelligence Council's (NIC) estimations that were made public in June. They proposed that Kim would probably opt for a tactic of force, possibly utilizing non-nuclear deadly assaults, to promote North Korea's objective of intimidating neighboring countries, acquiring concessions, and reinforcing the government's military status within the nation.

According to the NIC, it is probable that Kim will resort to using force, including the use of nuclear weapons, in order to pressure South Korea rather than to conquer it.

According to Bennett, in case of a North Korean attack on South Korea, the latter would be completely destroyed, probably with the use of nuclear weapons, instead of a full-blown invasion plan. Bennett also assumes that Kim is unlikely to send his troops on the ground to avoid them from learning information that could put his rule in jeopardy.

According to Maxwell, the likelihood of North Korea starting a war is influenced more by its internal state than external dangers. If Kim's position is at risk due to political and economic instability within his country, he may use external threats as a justification to start a war.

The shortage of economic resources is currently leading to a political issue, which was recognized by Kim during a speech he made at a gathering of the Workers' Party from January 23rd to 24th.

According to Kim, a significant political problem has emerged due to the inability of properly providing the general public with essential items such as spices, food, and everyday goods.

Analysts suggest that while the issue may not be severe enough to endanger his existence, it is significant enough to cause him to shift focus away from issues within his own country.

The director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Michael O'Hanlon, doesn't share the same views as Carlin and Hecker when it comes to the potential for war. He believes that Kim would prioritize his own survival over getting into a high-level conflict and is doubtful that he would pursue such a course of action.