Russia rattles the nuclear sabre again, as Ukraine devastates its munitions

Russia has adapted its nuclear strategy to address the particular risk of long-range attacks from Ukraine. This adjustment comes in light of recent demonstrations by Ukrainian forces, which showed just how significantly these attacks can undermine Moscow’s conventional military operations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently detailed the strategies for a refreshed version of the Basics of National Policy regarding the use of nuclear weapons, as shared by his close associate Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as the deputy head of the National Security Council, on Telegram this Wednesday.

He noted that a significant attack involving enemy air weaponry, such as planes, missiles, and drones, could potentially lead to the use of nuclear weapons under certain circumstances.

Medvedev stated that if a country without nuclear weapons acts aggressively towards Russia and is backed or involved by a nuclear-armed nation, it will be viewed as a coordinated assault.

These threat profiles are specifically designed to characterize Ukraine, a country that relinquished its nuclear weapons in 1994. Despite this, it receives backing from nuclear-capable nations like the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. Additionally, Ukraine is prohibited from using weapons provided by Western countries to launch attacks deep into Russian territory.

Putin has previously stated that deploying those weapons would mean Russia is entering a conflict with NATO.

The recent action appears aimed at reviving the notion of a preemptive strike. Russian officials recently shared with The Washington Post that the repeated warnings have become worn out from being overused and no longer instill fear in the West.

Ukraine has utilized domestically produced drones to target Russian supply centers, and on Saturday, it demonstrated to Russia its capabilities without relying on British-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles or US-supplied Army Tactical Missiles (ATACMS).

Drone operators from military intelligence and special forces targeted Russian ammunition storage facilities in Tikhoretsk, located in Krasnodar Krai, roughly 300 kilometers (185 miles) southeast of areas controlled by Ukraine, as well as in Toropets, in Tver, about 500 kilometers (310 miles) north of Ukraine.

According to Ukraine's military leadership, the attack on Tikhoretsk resulted in the destruction of 2,000 tons of ammunition.

Colonel Ants Kiviselg, the head of Estonian intelligence, stated that the assault on Toropetsk could have resulted in the Russian military losing supplies meant for three months.

"According to Kiviselg speaking to ERR, thirty thousand tonnes of munitions were detonated, which amounts to 750,000 rounds. This attack has essentially wiped out two to three months’ worth of ammunition. As a result, the Russian Federation has experienced significant ammunition losses, and we should start to notice the effects of this on the battlefield in the upcoming weeks."

Images taken by commercial satellites later revealed bunkers that were surrounded by dirt mounds and had been completely destroyed by fire.

In Tikhoretsk, Russian residents who were recording the smaller of two blasts ended up capturing a massive explosion and a towering mushroom cloud.

The dense arrangement of accumulated equipment highlights the weakness of operational security in Russia's supply depots located in the rear. It shows how the Western-imposed restrictions on Ukraine, preventing it from using Western-supplied weapons against targets in Russia, have allowed the Russian military to neglect the protection of these areas, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington.

"This adaptability has allowed Russia to enhance its extensive support bases, enabling the efficient preparation and deployment of significant supplies to Ukraine in large quantities."

Ukraine has aimed to deploy Storm Shadows and ATACMS missiles to target Russian TU-95MS and Sukhoi-35 bombers while they are taking off from airbases in Russia. These bombers are launching glide bombs at Ukrainian positions along the front lines.

These inertial bombs, modified to include wings and occasionally guidance systems, can travel distances of 40 to 60 kilometers (approximately 25 to 37 miles). Ukraine has stated that the only effective method to neutralize them is by targeting the aircraft before they drop their bombs. Each bomb can hold between 250 kilograms (about 550 pounds) and three tonnes of explosives, resulting in catastrophic effects upon detonation.

This was evidenced on Monday when Russia launched glide bombs on the city of Zaporizhzhia for the first time, resulting in damage to 14 buildings and two schools, and leaving 21 individuals injured.

On September 19, the European Parliament adopted a resolution with a vote of 425 in favor, 131 opposed, and 63 abstentions, authorizing Ukraine to use Western weapons without restrictions.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Russian Duma, stated that the actions proposed by the European Parliament could lead to a nuclear world war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cautioned that Russia's nuclear reaction might not necessarily involve a nuclear bomb, but could instead involve an attack on a power plant.

"It appears that Putin is strategizing assaults on our nuclear power facilities and their supporting structures with the intention of cutting them off from the electricity network," he stated during the 79th UN General Assembly held in New York.

"Thanks to satellites from other nations, Russia is obtaining pictures and in-depth information regarding the infrastructure of our nuclear power facilities."

In an interview with ABC News the day before, Zelenskyy made it clear that he was talking about China.

"Russia is utilizing Chinese satellites to capture images that reveal intricate details of nuclear facilities," he mentioned.

This week, Ukrainian presidential advisor Vladyslav Vlasyuk revealed that 60 percent of the foreign parts used in Russian-made weapons originate from China.

The assaults on Tikhoretsk and Toropets were executed using drones made in Ukraine.

Ukraine has taken the lead in developing precise bombing methods targeting armored vehicles and troops by utilizing smaller drones equipped with first-person views.

Despite Western limitations, Ukraine committed in December to produce a minimum of one million smaller drones this year. On Saturday, its defense minister, Rustem Umyerov, announced that they would exceed that target.

“We have the capability to operate millions of drones, and we're ready for it,” Umyerov mentioned during a telethon. “In the upcoming year, we won’t allow the enemy to outmaneuver us, and we will significantly increase our production.”

Recently, Putin announced that Russia manufactured 140,000 drones in the previous year and plans to boost that number to nearly ten times that amount in 2024.

On Monday, the European Union put forward a plan to provide a loan of 35 billion euros (approximately $39 billion) by the end of the year to assist Ukraine in reaching its production targets by 2025.

The loan will represent the EU's share of a $50 billion (45 billion euros) commitment made by the G7.

Although a portion of the funding will be allocated for constructing bomb shelters in schools, it will significantly increase the scale of Ukraine's defense sector, which Umyerov recently estimated to be valued at 20 billion euros ($22 billion).