Robert Jenrick likely to be the next Tory leader

2 Oct 2024

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Good morning from Birmingham. This conference feels quite unusual for several reasons. The Conservative party is currently undergoing significant changes, but unless something surprising happens, the competition to choose the next leader of the Conservatives seems fairly straightforward.

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At the Conservative Party conference, the overall situation suggests that if things don't shift, Robert Jenrick is likely to become the next leader. Conservative MPs will be casting their votes next week to reduce the list of candidates to two final contenders. These nominees will then be presented to party members for an online vote, with the results set to be revealed on November 2.

As is usual with the Conservative Party leadership, there are essentially two paths to gaining the support of the members: the mainstream option and the more conservative option. Jenrick, who stepped down from his role as immigration minister in Rishi Sunak's cabinet, has been very successful in dominating the conservative option. Polls indicate that he is likely to beat nearly anyone who tries to take the mainstream route.

Kemi Badenoch, on the other hand, would likely win any contest against her fellow Conservative party members, but it's uncertain if she'll even make it to that point. The former business secretary caused some misunderstandings when she claimed that maternity pay was "too much." Although she later tried to clarify her statement, she seemed to reinforce her views yesterday, indicating that the UK’s minimum wage and maternity pay regulations are some of the rules that "weigh down businesses." She's having a tough time garnering enough backing from MPs, and her recent missteps have only made it harder for her to gain support from her colleagues in Parliament.

At the same time, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat, who are considered to be appealing to the left wing of the party, are unlikely to surpass Jenrick unless there’s a significant shift in how party members feel. Jenrick’s assertion in his campaign video that UK special forces are "killing instead of capturing terrorists" faced backlash from his opponents, with one military official describing it as an "outrageous allegation." However, this is the type of message that resonates with Conservative activists.

So far, none of Badenoch’s efforts have succeeded in winning over the undecided MPs, and neither Tugendhat nor Cleverly have been able to sway the opinions of party members. It's possible that one of the speeches scheduled for tomorrow could shift the momentum of the race, but I believe it’s more likely that the Conservative Party is simply waiting for Jenrick to take charge.

This week, I spent a lot of time listening to Katy Perry’s song "143" while I worked on my column.

Simon Case, the UK's leading civil servant, resigned yesterday after four years in his position. Following his departure, a job advertisement was quickly published for the role, which pays £200,000 annually. George Parker examines the candidates who could take over.

Ofcom's Chief: "We have significant authority" | The UK’s media oversight body plans to take decisive measures against technology firms that violate the latest content moderation regulations. Although the agency's ability to curb the dissemination of false information online is somewhat restricted, its leader shared these insights with the Financial Times.

Donor disclosure | Robert Jenrick is encountering more scrutiny regarding £75,000 in donations to his Conservative leadership campaign from a company that received financing through a tax haven. This comes after businessman Phillip Ullmann identified himself as the original source of the funds, according to a report by The Guardian's Rowena Mason.

Poll Results | A recent YouGov/Sky News survey of 802 Conservative Party members, conducted over nine days and concluding on Sunday night, reveals that if Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick faced off, Badenoch would win with 52 percent of the vote compared to Jenrick's 48 percent. This is a significant change from six weeks ago when Jenrick was trailing by 18 points, indicating a notable increase in his support.