RFK Jr just endorsed Trump. Will it matter in November?

Robert F Kennedy Jr's solo campaign has come to an end, but the lingering question is still there: is his backing mainly from people who typically support the Republican or Democratic Party?

His support base was starting to dwindle. According to the average of opinion polls on RealClearPolitics, he is now at 5%, a significant drop from the high teens he was polling at a few months back.

However, in a tightly contested election, the votes for Kennedy could potentially decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the election in November.

Many experts believe that a significant decrease in Mr. Kennedy's support can be attributed to the enthusiasm among Democrats for their new candidate, Vice-President Harris.

"When there was a choice between Biden and Trump, individuals were seeking an alternative," stated Merrill Matthews, a scholar living in the Institute for Policy Innovation with conservative views and expertise in third-party campaign history.

"But now that Kamala Harris has entered the scene and secured the Democratic nomination, everything has shifted."

Surveys that include candidates who are not affiliated with the major parties, such as Jill Stein from the Green Party and activist Cornel West, do not clearly show where Mr. Kennedy's support is coming from.

Sometimes polls indicate that his participation in the race helps Republicans, while other times they suggest he is beneficial to Democrats. However, in nearly every poll, the difference in support is very close.

However, many believe that a large portion of the support from Mr. Kennedy's liberal followers may have already shifted back to the Democratic party due to Ms. Harris's increasing prominence.

Mr. Matthews mentioned that RFK Jr's campaign being suspended will give Trump a slight boost.

"I'm not certain it will be significant because Kennedy's poll numbers were decreasing quite a bit," he commented.

However, a small number of votes in key states could potentially change the outcome of the election, which seems to be tightly contested right now. Mr. Kennedy is fully aware of this, stating on Friday that he would only be removing his name from the list of candidates in swing states where he thinks his participation could harm Trump's chances.

Even though he comes from a well-known Democratic family, Mr. Kennedy used a lot of his speech about quitting to criticize his own party. Throughout his campaign, he often clashed with the traditional Democrats in power.

During a charity event in the outskirts of Detroit, a vital area in the swing state of Michigan, members of the Democratic party protested outside by holding signs labeling him as a potential disruptor.

His choice to endorse Trump will confirm the accusations for those who criticize Kennedy.

Melissa Smith, the author of "Third Parties, Outsiders, and Renegades: Modern Challenges to the Two-Party System in Presidential Elections," believes that some of the people who voted for him may choose to vote for Trump in the upcoming election. She also thinks that there are some voters who are not happy with either candidate and will choose not to vote at all.

However, Mr. Kennedy's campaign, facing financial difficulties, could have made a bigger difference in the election if he had chosen to either remain in the race or withdraw at the eleventh hour.

With over two months remaining until the election, Ms. Smith forecasted that his campaign would be a minor and short-lived event that may soon be forgotten in a race that has already seen many unexpected twists.

At the moment, it seems that Trump is in a stronger position to win over more of the remaining support that belonged to Mr. Kennedy.

The Trump campaign shared a memo written by its pollster Tony Fabrizio, which says that Republicans have the potential to benefit.

"This is great news for President Trump and his campaign - it's as simple as that," he stated.

However, his support also presents a potential danger for Trump, as Democrats aim to characterize the Republican team as "strange" - meaning they are not in line with the typical beliefs and values of American politics.

Mr. Kennedy, known for his controversial anti-vaccination stance, may inadvertently contribute more content for these critiques.

At the Democratic National Convention this week, a humorous newspaper funded by his campaign boldly declared "Kennedy is quirky" on its front page.

Filled with many messages against vaccines and mentions of conspiracy theories, its main point was that being "strange" is actually positive.

The Harris campaign chose not to mention RFK Jr in their statement responding to the news on Friday.

"If you're an American exhausted by Donald Trump and seeking a fresh direction, our campaign is here for you," stated Jen O'Malley Dillon, the chair of Harris' campaign.