Labour expects surge of ‘shy Reform’ voters in some northern and Midlands seats

Labour candidates and activists are preparing for a potential increase in support for Nigel Farage's hard-right Reform UK in the north-west of England and the Midlands. Some predict that there could be a close margin of less than 2,000 votes between the two parties in certain seats during the upcoming general election on Thursday.

In some areas where Conservatives currently hold power, activists informed the Guardian that the Reform party is gaining momentum and may surpass the Tories to take third place. One person mentioned the presence of "shy Reformers" as a factor influencing the outcome.

In certain more varied areas, there has been a division of the vote into two parts. One candidate, who may be left-leaning or focused on Gaza issues, is attracting BAME voters. At the same time, there is a rise in support for Reform among white voters who could have been potential Conservative supporters but are now considering switching to Labour.

"Our potential supporters are at risk," stated one candidate. "A sudden problem could easily persuade them to back the Reform party."

Reform UK, which focuses on toughening immigration policies and has faced allegations of racism among its candidates, began the election season with an 11% polling rate. However, with the unexpected comeback of Farage as leader, the party's support increased to an average of 16% last week.

A Labour organizer from the East Midlands mentioned that it was likely for Reform to secure a Labour-held seat in either northern England or the Midlands. They stated that it was challenging to predict the level of support for the party based on their canvassing data. They likened this situation to the uncertainty faced in 2015 when Labour couldn't accurately gauge the support for Reform's previous party, Ukip. The activist anticipated some surprising outcomes in the upcoming election.

Activists have expressed concerns about Reform winning in two seats in Oldham, as well as Leigh, Atherton, and Makerfield. Other areas where Reform is predicted to do well are Bolsover, Sherwood Forest, and Barnsley.

An experienced leader in the Midlands predicted that Labour would easily secure victory in the Tory-held constituency, with Reform party taking the second spot. The leader expressed worry about the unexpectedly high turnout for Reform due to the significant number of postal votes. It is suggested that older voters, who tend to lean towards conservative beliefs, are more likely to vote by post.

"We have an 80% turnout for postal votes, which shows that many previous Conservative supporters are still participating in the election. It's likely that not all of them are backing the Labour party," they stated. "We are prepared for any last-minute attacks from the Tories, as we believe it could sway some voters towards the Reform party."

The event coordinator mentioned that they were not disregarding the possibility of a surprising loss for the Labour party in a few seats, particularly ones with mostly white residents. They highlighted that there are some not very strong candidates in certain areas, especially where they are competing against the Conservatives.

The activists reported that they hadn't noticed a strong Reform ground campaign, but they believed that undecided white voters were leaning towards Reform, especially when local issues like a hotel for asylum seekers or the installation of electricity pylons were involved.

"It's mainly men who are supporting the Reform Party. When we knock on doors, we find that women are typically the ones answering and they are more likely to vote for Labour. In the 2015 election, 7,000 people voted for UKIP but we didn't see any sign of that support during our canvassing."

Another advocate stated: "I believe that the selection of Labour candidates has irked some locals. While we are likely to retain most of these seats, the margin of victory may be uncomfortably narrow, with potentially less than a 2,000-vote difference between us and the Reform party in second place."

Labour-controlled areas where a division in voting was causing major uncertainty include Debbie Abrahams and Jim McMahon's constituencies in Oldham, as well as Bury North, where James Daly had the slimmest margin of victory in the country for the Conservative Party.

"The polls may not accurately capture the presence of these 'hidden Reformers,'" one activist claimed. "Many of the undecided voters might actually be leaning towards Reform party, but are hesitant to reveal their true intentions."

Many people running for office and those involved in political advocacy think that Labour will easily win the next election. However, they plan to start convincing top Labour strategists to focus more on Reform in the upcoming election.

"It seems like a Ukip effect is brewing, likely to draw votes away from both us and the Tories equally, increasing Farage's influence," the activist noted. "Many are unaware of the significant change that is on the horizon in our political landscape, and we appear to be moving towards it without fully realizing the implications."