Reform’s bruising week and why postal voting matters for party strategy

3 days ago

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Hello there. We are now only six days away from the final day of voting. The voting process in the UK has been ongoing for approximately three weeks, with postal vote ballots being sent out to households.

As mentioned two weeks ago, the unveiling of the parties' manifestos has become an integral aspect of the beginning stages of the election campaign. This event serves as a significant moment for voters, especially as postal ballots are being sent out.

Over 20% of votes in 2019 were submitted through mail, but the likelihood of someone choosing to vote by post depends on their demographic characteristics. (For more information, check out this useful research paper.)

It's not surprising that older voters and those with physical disabilities are more inclined to vote through the mail. The UK's growing population of elderly individuals is a major factor in the steady rise of postal voting over the years.

The Conservative campaign is targeting older voters, who are a key demographic for them. They are aiming to regain the support of former Tory voters who are now considering voting for the Reform party or not voting at all.

Georgina Quach is the editor of Inside Politics. To catch up on the latest edition of the newsletter, click here. Feel free to share any rumors, ideas, or comments by emailing [email protected]

Nigel Farage's Reform party is facing some tough news coverage since it was formed.

A person going door-to-door for Farage's campaign in Clacton was caught on camera by an undercover journalist for Channel 4 making derogatory comments about migrants and using a racial slur to refer to Rishi Sunak. The Guardian reported that Reform had to distance themselves from their candidate in Basingstoke when it was discovered that he used to be a member of the BNP.

ITV found out that four Reform candidates were part of a Facebook group where one post said that there should be no mixing of races and that the only thing a white woman should have that is black is black leather.

Farage has faced criticism for his comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with Rishi Sunak changing his strategy to directly attack Farage for his stance on the issue. Sunak accused Farage of "appeasement" in an interview with the Telegraph's Ben Riley Smith.

These stories about Reform are causing damage to the party and may benefit the Conservatives in the upcoming election, as Reform usually attracts voters from the Tory party. However, since Farage's party mainly focuses on older voters, who are more likely to vote by post, the recent negative stories about Reform may not have as much of an effect as they would if they targeted a party with a younger voter base.

This is why Sunak's choice to target Reform voters in his campaign is risky. In the last few days, he is trying to appeal to voters who have probably already voted by mail, instead of those who are still undecided. Sunak's campaign has been poorly managed because he initially focused on winning over voters who seemed unlikely to support him based on previous elections, and now he is trying to engage with voters who are more likely to have already cast their votes.

However, this is also a contributing factor to why the Labour Party is justified in feeling worried about claims that the election is over before it has even begun. Starmer's party is susceptible to a sudden change in voter priorities, such as shifting from ousting the Conservatives to reducing the size of a potential Labour majority. This vulnerability is greater for Labour than it is for Reform.

Many Labour politicians are not being honest when they make statements like "no one has voted yet" or "the only poll that matters is polling day", but the truth is that polling day holds far more importance for the Labour Party than the weeks of postal voting leading up to it.

I watched Bad Boys: Ride or Die yesterday, a well-made and entertainingly dumb action film. Martin Lawrence's performance was especially enjoyable.

No matter how you choose to use it, enjoy your weekend!

George Parker joined the prime minister's campaign bus yesterday as it made its way from Nottingham to Leeds, stopping at a pottery and train factory along the way. Despite facing challenges, Sunak remains determined and full of energy, being guided by his loyal aides who continue to support him.

'Highly offensive' | Business secretary Kemi Badenoch has equated the Labour party's promise to expand equal pay safeguards to ethnic minority and disabled employees if it secures the general election to segregation practices in apartheid-era South Africa.

The SNP's hold on power has weakened | A mix of controversy, ineffective leadership, and long-standing rule during tough economic times has diminished the influence of Scotland's former top party. Henry Mance reflects on their recent past and the topic of independence.

Gambling controversy remains a topic of discussion | Sunak refused to specify when he informed a crucial assistant about the general election date, as the issue of betting on the timing of the vote continued to overshadow his campaign.

Read the latest UK poll results from various major pollsters on the Financial Times website. Explore the methodology and breakdown of polling data by factors like age, gender, and region on the FT poll-tracker page.

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