The US could stop the horror in Rafah today. Why won’t it? | Paul Rogers

Even with the pressure exerted by the Biden administration, there is scant evidence of the Netanyahu government shifting its strategy to eliminate Hamas at any cost, even if it results in numerous fatalities and extensive damage to Gaza.

The city of Rafah is in great danger as Israel is carrying out powerful airstrikes and is preparing to launch a full-scale ground attack. The area surrounding Rafah is home to approximately 1.5 million individuals who are living in fragile tents and struggling to find sufficient food, clean water, and medical assistance. The UN high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk, expressed grave concerns regarding the ground offensive, stating that it could result in the death and injury of an alarming number of civilians, particularly women and children. Rafah was hit with 67 airstrikes on Monday, which happened at the same time as an Israeli operation to rescue two hostages.

Preventing more tragedies in Rafah is possible if the USA intervenes. Israel relies heavily on military aid from the US and would struggle to sustain the war without it. This prompts two crucial inquiries: what motivates Israel to persist with a military campaign that risks causing catastrophic harm to innocent civilians? And why hasn't Joe Biden put an end to this conflict?

The initial question is quite simple to respond to. The attack executed by Hamas on October 7 resulted in a tremendous impact on Israeli society, which was the intended outcome. After the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that occurred from 2000 to 2005, Israel believed that it had complete control over its safety. However, on October 7, the IDF, police, and intelligence bodies made a significant error.

The Hamas paramilitary officials had thoroughly planned the assault for several months and expected a tremendous retaliatory measure from Israeli forces. This is exactly what they've received, causing harm to Israel's efforts to cooperate with Gulf governments and generating enormous backing for the Palestinian movement throughout the Middle East and other regions.

Currently, Israel possesses the most extremist government it has had in 75 years, relying on three fundamentalist parties to support their government's stability and control. However, if Hamas persists in their actions, the right-wing parties will probably revoke their support, causing Benjamin Netanyahu to no longer remain in power. Nevertheless, the prime minister's ambition to keep his role is driving the continuation of Israel's attack.

The Israeli military, or IDF, wants to keep fighting in this war. They haven't been doing well in recent battles and they want to regain their reputation by winning something. However, there's an issue: things haven't been going as well as they'd hoped. The IDF has lost some soldiers (although not as many as other groups) and many more have been badly hurt. Some of these injuries will alter the soldiers' lives forever.

Currently, Hamas is rebuilding their paramilitary groups in the north of Gaza, which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have said they controlled for several months. On Sunday, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) allegedly attacked Israeli military points near Gaza City with mortars, while the Palestinian Mujahideen Movement fired rockets towards another Israeli position located southeast of the city. Although these attacks may not be as significant as they were at the beginning of the conflict, they demonstrate that Hamas remains very adaptable. At the moment, the IDF has not yet fully located most of the Hamas tunnel network, nor have they been able to free more than three of the 100-plus hostages that Hamas is holding.

But what about the Biden administration's stance on the matter? Despite sending forceful messages to Netanyahu to minimize the damage inflicted on the Palestinians, it appears to have no effect. The Israelis seem to believe they can disregard Biden's words without any repercussions.

The Israel influence is very powerful in Washington, and the Pentagon has deep connections with Israel. This relationship was strengthened when Israel was consulted during the Iraq war in 2003, which didn't go well, and currently US troops are stationed in Israel and operating a radar facility that provides early warning. The US has also helped construct a permanent military training area for Arab forces called Baladia. The US military industry is making a lot of profit from the large amount of equipment that is being shipped to Israel.

The primary group that advocates for Israel, known as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac), is efficient in their efforts. However, other organizations led by American Jews, like the J Street group in Washington, are discontent with the ongoing war. When discussing President Biden's stance, it's important to also recognize the role of support from Christian Zionists in the US that is beneficial to Israel.

Around 100 million evangelical Christians in America believe that Israel is a crucial part of God's plan for the end times. A considerable number of these individuals are of the opinion that the ultimate battle between righteousness and malice will occur in Israel. Moreover, they firmly believe that it is God's plan for Israel to remain a Jewish state. Evangelical Christians, who often vote in larger numbers than other religious groups, tend to support Republican candidates. This raises concerns about the possibility of a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict. Hence, it is crucial for US allies to frankly address and influence the political discourse.

We are only at the beginning stages of this situation. David Cameron has advised Israel to seriously reconsider any further actions in Rafah, while the EU's foreign policy leader, Josep Borrell, has suggested that the US should reconsider any military aid they provide to Israel. However, if we want to prevent an even bigger disaster, more action will be necessary and it will need to happen quickly.

Paul Rogers holds the position of emeritus professor of peace studies at the University of Bradford. He is also recognized as an honorary fellow at the Joint Service Command and Staff College.